USA Midterm Elections (predictions etc)

[Wazzzup]

Conventional wisdom and polling say that the most likely scenario is the democrats will narrowly win the house and the republicans will keep the senate and may gain a seat or two



I am going to go out on a limb here and go against that a bit.  I predict the republicans will narrowly keep the house and gain a couple senate seats.



here's why

[Anonymous]

Conventional wisdom and polling say that the most likely scenario is the democrats will narrowly win the house and the republicans will keep the senate and may gain a seat or two

I am going with conventional  wisdom.



There will be no impeachment proceedings with a narrow Democrat majority in the house.

[Wazzzup]

1. polls are often wrong.  They are rarely way wrong, but they are usually wrong.  Some examples-- The repubs taking both houses under Clinton, only one poller predicted that.  Exit polls predicted Kerry would win, he didn't.  Most polls predicted Hillary winning and we know how that went.  Polls tend to undercount conservative voters, not always, but usually.



2. Early voting favors republicans.  Normally early voting favors democrats, but this time it does not.



3. black vote not energized for democrats-- rasmussen puts black approval for trump at 40%, that seems suspiciously high, but I think it is reflective somewhat.  blacks have very high employment (record high) so they will be less motivated to vote dem.  Also issues that blacks care about most are not at the forefront.  Blacks tend to care about police shootings, they don't care about Brett Kavanaugh or illegal immigration.



4. Millennials--A lot of the polls are counting on millennials being strongly motivated to vote.  But they rarely ever turn out.  Maybe this year is different, but past behavior predicts they will not show.



5. Republican voters inscresingly opting out of surveys https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/why-do-the-polls-keep-getting-it-wrong-many-republicans_us_59033ef4e4b05279d4edbb15">https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/wh ... 79d4edbb15">https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/why-do-the-polls-keep-getting-it-wrong-many-republicans_us_59033ef4e4b05279d4edbb15



6. The democrats have no issues--the only thing they have is hating Trump and offering free health care for all (which they cannot deliver).  is that enough?



Some wild cards in the mix



1. Hispanic vote very low unemployment for Hispanics as well.  Maybe some will care about the caravan, but dunno.



2. Women's vote some may come out because they oppose Kavanaugh etc.  But then there were a lot of republicans women who said they don't want their husbands, sions, brothers to be guilty until proven innocent.



----



So I am predicting the repubs will hold the house just barely and increase their hold of the senate by two.  I could certainly be wrong though, we'll see.

[Anonymous]

To be honest Wazzzup, I have little in the American congressional elections in a few days..



We have a provincial and federal government who keep making us poorer.

 

[Wazzzup]

To be honest Wazzzup, I have little in the American congressional elections in a few days..



We have a provincial and federal government who keep making us poorer.

 

I can understand home is the first priority, and I hope that you will get a chance to help change that.    But to me, anti-progressives winning anywhere, whether the US, Canada, UK, Italy, anywhere, even Brazil is a victory for all of humanity.  Not everybody sees it that way, but I do.

[Anonymous]

To be honest Wazzzup, I have little in the American congressional elections in a few days..



We have a provincial and federal government who keep making us poorer.

 

I can understand home is the first priority, and I hope that you will get a chance to help change that.    But to me, anti-progressives winning anywhere, whether the US, Canada, UK, Italy, anywhere, even Brazil is a victory for all of humanity.  Not everybody sees it that way, but I do.

I understand Wazzzup.

 ac_smile

[Thiel]

My prediction is that any prediction I will make will be wrong.



I agree about the Democrats running a policy free campaign.

[Anonymous]

Trump has suggested the repubs could lose the house.



I don't like either American party just like no federal Canadian party deserves the vote of working people. But, at least the repubs aren't going to waste time trying to impeach Trump.

[Anonymous]

1. polls are often wrong.  They are rarely way wrong, but they are usually wrong.  Some examples-- The repubs taking both houses under Clinton, only one poller predicted that.  Exit polls predicted Kerry would win, he didn't.  Most polls predicted Hillary winning and we know how that went.  Polls tend to undercount conservative voters, not always, but usually.



2. Early voting favors republicans.  Normally early voting favors democrats, but this time it does not.



3. black vote not energized for democrats-- rasmussen puts black approval for trump at 40%, that seems suspiciously high, but I think it is reflective somewhat.  blacks have very high employment (record high) so they will be less motivated to vote dem.  Also issues that blacks care about most are not at the forefront.  Blacks tend to care about police shootings, they don't care about Brett Kavanaugh or illegal immigration.



4. Millennials--A lot of the polls are counting on millennials being strongly motivated to vote.  But they rarely ever turn out.  Maybe this year is different, but past behavior predicts they will not show.



5. Republican voters inscresingly opting out of surveys https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/why-do-the-polls-keep-getting-it-wrong-many-republicans_us_59033ef4e4b05279d4edbb15">https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/wh ... 79d4edbb15">https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/why-do-the-polls-keep-getting-it-wrong-many-republicans_us_59033ef4e4b05279d4edbb15



6. The democrats have no issues--the only thing they have is hating Trump and offering free health care for all (which they cannot deliver).  is that enough?



Some wild cards in the mix



1. Hispanic vote very low unemployment for Hispanics as well.  Maybe some will care about the caravan, but dunno.



2. Women's vote some may come out because they oppose Kavanaugh etc.  But then there were a lot of republicans women who said they don't want their husbands, sions, brothers to be guilty until proven innocent.



----



So I am predicting the repubs will hold the house just barely and increase their hold of the senate by two.  I could certainly be wrong though, we'll see.

The women vote will be the deciding factor I predict. Lots of women candidates and most are progs.

[Anonymous]

Billionaire progtards buying elections.



https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/newspolitics/inside-a-secretive-billionaire-club%E2%80%99s-plan-to-help-democrats-take-congress/ar-BBPfQBh?li=AAggFp5&ocid=mailsignout">https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/newspoli ... ailsignout">https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/newspolitics/inside-a-secretive-billionaire-club%E2%80%99s-plan-to-help-democrats-take-congress/ar-BBPfQBh?li=AAggFp5&ocid=mailsignout

Inside a secretive billionaire club's plan to help Democrats take Congress



HOENIX, Ariz. — Kevin Rodriguez, a 19-year-old aspiring singer in tight jeans and gray-and-white Nike high tops, had never heard of the powerful progressive donor group Democracy Alliance. But he is a key part of the secretive billionaire club's plot to flip the Sun Belt.



The donor clique, which counts George Soros and Tom Steyer among its members, is quietly giving funds to a handful of local grassroots groups like Rodriguez's employer, Living United for Change in Arizona. They hope that these organizations can do a better job than Democratic campaigns at reaching and turning out young and minority voters in states that liberals have long viewed as just out of their reach.



It's a marked shift from the Democracy Alliance's longtime strategy of funding Beltway think tanks to counter conservative ideas.



And it's also one window into the exclusive cadre's view of the best way to take down President Donald Trump in 2020: By wooing new voters in rapidly diversifying states across the southern U.S., rather than prioritizing fighting Republicans for older white residents of the Rust Belt, a raging debate in the party since the 2016 election. If the investment pays off in next week's election results, the group might take it to more states during the presidential election.



Rodriguez is a paid canvasser for Living United for Change in Arizona, or LUCHA, which offers a blend of immigration services, lobbying on issues like criminal justice, and campaigning — including a yearlong push to register and turn out low-propensity voters. At the moment, Rodriguez is working six days a week on the latter.

[Bricktop]

My prediction is that any prediction I will make will be wrong.

I therefore predict that Thiel's predictions will also be wrong.

[Anonymous]

Billionaire progtards buying elections.



https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/newspolitics/inside-a-secretive-billionaire-club%E2%80%99s-plan-to-help-democrats-take-congress/ar-BBPfQBh?li=AAggFp5&ocid=mailsignout">https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/newspoli ... ailsignout">https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/newspolitics/inside-a-secretive-billionaire-club%E2%80%99s-plan-to-help-democrats-take-congress/ar-BBPfQBh?li=AAggFp5&ocid=mailsignout

Inside a secretive billionaire club's plan to help Democrats take Congress



HOENIX, Ariz. — Kevin Rodriguez, a 19-year-old aspiring singer in tight jeans and gray-and-white Nike high tops, had never heard of the powerful progressive donor group Democracy Alliance. But he is a key part of the secretive billionaire club's plot to flip the Sun Belt.



The donor clique, which counts George Soros and Tom Steyer among its members, is quietly giving funds to a handful of local grassroots groups like Rodriguez's employer, Living United for Change in Arizona. They hope that these organizations can do a better job than Democratic campaigns at reaching and turning out young and minority voters in states that liberals have long viewed as just out of their reach.



It's a marked shift from the Democracy Alliance's longtime strategy of funding Beltway think tanks to counter conservative ideas.



And it's also one window into the exclusive cadre's view of the best way to take down President Donald Trump in 2020: By wooing new voters in rapidly diversifying states across the southern U.S., rather than prioritizing fighting Republicans for older white residents of the Rust Belt, a raging debate in the party since the 2016 election. If the investment pays off in next week's election results, the group might take it to more states during the presidential election.



Rodriguez is a paid canvasser for Living United for Change in Arizona, or LUCHA, which offers a blend of immigration services, lobbying on issues like criminal justice, and campaigning — including a yearlong push to register and turn out low-propensity voters. At the moment, Rodriguez is working six days a week on the latter.

His hedge fund was involved in a scheme to defraud foreign investors out of tens of millions of dollars.

[Anonymous]

1. polls are often wrong.  They are rarely way wrong, but they are usually wrong.  Some examples-- The repubs taking both houses under Clinton, only one poller predicted that.  Exit polls predicted Kerry would win, he didn't.  Most polls predicted Hillary winning and we know how that went.  Polls tend to undercount conservative voters, not always, but usually.



2. Early voting favors republicans.  Normally early voting favors democrats, but this time it does not.



3. black vote not energized for democrats-- rasmussen puts black approval for trump at 40%, that seems suspiciously high, but I think it is reflective somewhat.  blacks have very high employment (record high) so they will be less motivated to vote dem.  Also issues that blacks care about most are not at the forefront.  Blacks tend to care about police shootings, they don't care about Brett Kavanaugh or illegal immigration.



4. Millennials--A lot of the polls are counting on millennials being strongly motivated to vote.  But they rarely ever turn out.  Maybe this year is different, but past behavior predicts they will not show.



5. Republican voters inscresingly opting out of surveys https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/why-do-the-polls-keep-getting-it-wrong-many-republicans_us_59033ef4e4b05279d4edbb15">https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/wh ... 79d4edbb15">https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/why-do-the-polls-keep-getting-it-wrong-many-republicans_us_59033ef4e4b05279d4edbb15



6. The democrats have no issues--the only thing they have is hating Trump and offering free health care for all (which they cannot deliver).  is that enough?



Some wild cards in the mix



1. Hispanic vote very low unemployment for Hispanics as well.  Maybe some will care about the caravan, but dunno.



2. Women's vote some may come out because they oppose Kavanaugh etc.  But then there were a lot of republicans women who said they don't want their husbands, sions, brothers to be guilty until proven innocent.



----



So I am predicting the repubs will hold the house just barely and increase their hold of the senate by two.  I could certainly be wrong though, we'll see.

The women vote will be the deciding factor I predict. Lots of women candidates and most are progs.

Union and NGO money in Canada spend large trying to defeat fiscally conservative candidates/parties. Not that they really exist anymore.

[Anonymous]

Ah hell, I know brother. You cannot drive very far in this province without seeing a billboard attacking the governing Saskatchewan party.

[Anonymous]

Billionaire progtards buying elections.



https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/newspolitics/inside-a-secretive-billionaire-club%E2%80%99s-plan-to-help-democrats-take-congress/ar-BBPfQBh?li=AAggFp5&ocid=mailsignout">https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/newspoli ... ailsignout">https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/newspolitics/inside-a-secretive-billionaire-club%E2%80%99s-plan-to-help-democrats-take-congress/ar-BBPfQBh?li=AAggFp5&ocid=mailsignout

Inside a secretive billionaire club's plan to help Democrats take Congress



HOENIX, Ariz. — Kevin Rodriguez, a 19-year-old aspiring singer in tight jeans and gray-and-white Nike high tops, had never heard of the powerful progressive donor group Democracy Alliance. But he is a key part of the secretive billionaire club's plot to flip the Sun Belt.



The donor clique, which counts George Soros and Tom Steyer among its members, is quietly giving funds to a handful of local grassroots groups like Rodriguez's employer, Living United for Change in Arizona. They hope that these organizations can do a better job than Democratic campaigns at reaching and turning out young and minority voters in states that liberals have long viewed as just out of their reach.



It's a marked shift from the Democracy Alliance's longtime strategy of funding Beltway think tanks to counter conservative ideas.



And it's also one window into the exclusive cadre's view of the best way to take down President Donald Trump in 2020: By wooing new voters in rapidly diversifying states across the southern U.S., rather than prioritizing fighting Republicans for older white residents of the Rust Belt, a raging debate in the party since the 2016 election. If the investment pays off in next week's election results, the group might take it to more states during the presidential election.



Rodriguez is a paid canvasser for Living United for Change in Arizona, or LUCHA, which offers a blend of immigration services, lobbying on issues like criminal justice, and campaigning — including a yearlong push to register and turn out low-propensity voters. At the moment, Rodriguez is working six days a week on the latter.

His hedge fund was involved in a scheme to defraud foreign investors out of tens of millions of dollars.

He had a coal investment fund. Now he claims fossil fuels are destroying the planet. :001_rolleyes: