Wexit

[Anonymous]

This is no longer business as usual anymore.



Saskatchewan premier calls for 'new deal' with Ottawa



Regina — Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe says the federal election results confirm there's a fire of frustration burning in Western canada and it's time for a "new deal" with Ottawa.



Moe is renewing his calls for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to cancel the federal carbon tax, to rework the equalization formula and to get oil pipelines built to open up international markets. The Liberals secured a minority mandate in Monday's vote, but did not retain a single seat in Saskatchewan or Alberta.



Moe likens his plan to a fire extinguisher and says it's up to Trudeau to douse western Canadian frustration. The premier, who says he's a frustrated federalist, also rejects criticism that his own tone is stoking division.



"the path our federal government has been on the last four years has divided our nation," Moe said in a statement tuesday. "Last night's election results showed the sense of frustration and alienation in saskatchewan is now greater than it has been at any point in my lifetime."



The conservatives won all 14 seats in Saskatchewan.

[Anonymous]

Liberal dose of grim reality



You might excuse Albertans for waking up Tuesday morning with heavy heads and hearts.



Rest assured there had been no celebrating here in Wild Rose Country the night before.



Sadly, we were wrapping our heads around a federal election result that inflicted an ugly, mind-bending hangover.



The minority victory by the Trudeau Liberals was pretty much the worst result this province could have imagined.



Yes, four more years of the leader who has divided this country like no-one before him.



To make matters worst, the Liberals' likely bedfellows in Parliament — the Greens, BQ and the New Democrats — all have downright unfriendly policies to the energy industry and Alberta.



Not to mention regular taxpayers, but we digress.



So what next?



No doubt we are feeling unloved. And unheard.



A Facebook group called Vote Wexit.com had drawn about 145,000 members in the hours after the vote, with western separatism rallies planned in Alberta's major cities.



Yet it seems far too early to begin to stir the fires of separatism.



This is Canada, after all. And we remain a proud province in this great nation of ours.



But the sheer level of anger and frustration from Alberta must be understood by people in other regions.



Starting in Ottawa. On Parliament Hill, in particular.



Alberta is feeling marginalized — its issues on the fringes of a federal system that seems built to spend our resource money, but does almost nothing to help the very industry that provides it.



It is an industry needing help.



That was hammered home by Tuesday's layoff of dozens of employees at Husky Energy in Calgary and Lloydminster.



Sadly, those layoff announcements are not new.



They have come with increasing regularity in a sector losing hope.



We need a mechanism to get Alberta's resources to the worldwide market. That has to be a priority for the incumbent prime minister.



So congratulations, Mr. Trudeau, on winning the most seats in the 2019 federal election.



Good luck in governing as a minority. Just this time round please try to act in Alberta's best interests, too, for the good of all of Canada

[Anonymous]

There's talk on radio that TMX will go ahead to ease growing separatist sentiment here.

[Anonymous]

Premier Moe is demanding a new deal with Ottawa. The days of Liberal governments screwing the prairie provinces to win votes in Central Canada are over.

[Thiel]

Alberta and  Saskatchewan cannot separate without Manitoba. You would need Hudson Bay to get your oil and LNG to international markets. Unfortunately, #Wexit has a small following here.

[Anonymous]

Alberta and  Saskatchewan cannot separate without Manitoba. You would need Hudson Bay to get your oil and LNG to international markets. Unfortunately, #Wexit has a small following here.

I don't think full independence is what we want, but we can't rule it out either. Like Scott Moe said, a new deal with Ottawa.

[sasquatch]

Alberta and  Saskatchewan cannot separate without Manitoba. You would need Hudson Bay to get your oil and LNG to international markets. Unfortunately, #Wexit has a small following here.

I don't think full independence is what we want, but we can't rule it out either. Like Scott Moe said, a new deal with Ottawa.

That's the point. We don't want to separate from eastern Canada, but at the same time, we NEED to do it otherwise we're fucked! What Scott ans jason are doing is they are trying the "fair deal" line until things calm the fuck down, but i don't think wexit is going away and may happen if the east keep thumbing at us in an arrogant way. We're not ontario who gets mad for a few days and then pulls their pants around their ankles and begs the government to fuck them with new taxes.

[Anonymous]

Alberta and  Saskatchewan cannot separate without Manitoba. You would need Hudson Bay to get your oil and LNG to international markets. Unfortunately, #Wexit has a small following here.

I don't think full independence is what we want, but we can't rule it out either. Like Scott Moe said, a new deal with Ottawa.

That's the point. We don't want to separate from eastern Canada, but at the same time, we NEED to do it otherwise we're fucked! What Scott ans jason are doing is they are trying the "fair deal" line until things calm the fuck down, but i don't think wexit is going away and may happen if the east keep thumbing at us in an arrogant way. We're not ontario who gets mad for a few days and then pulls their pants around their ankles and begs the government to fuck them with new taxes.

I wish Manitoba was in on this. We are a have not province. Different from our two immediate Western neighbours.

[Anonymous]

SEPARATION ANXIETY

Is Wexit a reality fuelled by mounting frustration or simply an empty threat? Political experts weigh in





CALGARY — It's a proposal that experts are calling an "empty threat," an idea overblown by social media and a scenario that Alberta is "very, very far from." But proponents of separation say such a move could be achieved if the idea had support from a majority of citizens.



Since the Oct. 21 election saw the federal Conservatives win seats across Alberta and Saskatchewan and Canada's Liberal prime minister re-elected, talk of separation has ramped up online, and "Wexit" rallies are planned in Calgary, Red Deer and Edmonton next month.



But one local expert suggests that rather than focusing political frustrations on talks of separation and equalization, fixes to some federal-provincial fiscal arrangements might result in more concrete changes for the west.



University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe sees the call for separation as "an empty threat" that would only lead to more challenges for Alberta, such as building pipelines through other jurisdictions. Where Alberta and Ottawa could have a productive conversation, he added, is around federal health and social transfers to provinces.



"Enlarging those payments, having them grow faster than just the overall growth of the economy because of an aging population — that's something that I think we do need to think about," Tombe said.



Other potential changes could include adjustments to the fiscal stabilization program, which aims to provide some federal insurance to provinces that see sharp drops in revenue.



"That program currently is very, very small, and so provides basically no meaningful insurance," Tombe said.



"So enlarging it, that's something that would not just have helped Alberta during the recession, but would help any province going through a recession or some kind of unique shock."



But when it comes to Canada's equalization program, "Alberta doesn't really have a lot to gain from any particular tweak," Tombe said.



"Because our income levels are so high, there doesn't exist any reasonable reform proposal that would result in Alberta getting equalization," he said. "That being said, Saskatchewan does have a case. So there are reasonable tweaks to the formula that would result in them receiving payment."



Former northeastern B.C. Conservative MP Jay Hill, who lives in Calgary, is among those advocating for Alberta and Saskatchewan to separate in the wake of the election results.



"To me there's a thin line between being a frustrated federalist and being a reluctant separatist, and I'm afraid that Mr. Trudeau, by various acts, has erased that line, at least for me, and I suspect for hundreds of thousands of other westerners, especially in Alberta and Saskatchewan," he said.



Hill believes residents from both provinces need to convince their premiers "to at least consider holding referendums ... and ask a clear question of whether they want to endeavour, at least, to negotiate the exit of those two provinces from confederation."



He even sees parts of B.C., such as the northern Peace Region that he used to represent, wanting to seek their own vote.



"To me, we've got to that point where our relationship with confederation is dysfunctional, and that no matter how much we regret it, no matter how messy it's going to be, that the only alternative, just as in a personal relationship, is divorce," Hill said.



One major impact that Alberta would face in the event of separation would be losing access to federal health programs, said University of Calgary School of Public Policy director Pierre-gerlier Forest.



Forest said while Alberta might be able to afford going without federal health transfers, there are many other important health services overseen by the federal government, such as health technology evaluation, disease prevention, preparation for epidemics, the national health data system, and improving health for Indigenous populations.



"I'm sure most people don't have any form of preoccupation with the evaluation of the scan machine in which they are placed by the doctor, or the prescription pill they receive," he said.



"But in the end, this work has to be performed somewhere. It is, at this moment, performed mostly with federal support, with people that have been recruited thanks to the capacity of the federal government to mobilize the right skills and the right people."



Eric Adams, vice-dean of the University of Alberta faculty of law, said regional tensions have always been a part of Canadian constitutional politics.



"Although this dynamic in the present moment seems to be unprecedented, I should think it's part of a much longer trend that's natural in a federation as large as Canada's, which is that sometimes, some of those places and some of those regions feel alienated from the centre of power," he said.



When it comes to the mechanics of separation as a legal matter, the rules are somewhat uncertain, and it's "incredibly complicated," he noted.



"What we do know is that the extent of the constitutional unwinding that would need to take place is extensive, dramatic and obviously a certain amount of chaos is necessarily introduced," Adams said.



"So the idea that there would be an orderly or easy exit of any one province from the federation is just dreaming, in that the number of legal, constitutional, political, economic, social and cultural connections that bind these provinces one to the other and to the federation are so numerous and so long-standing that severing them would be a gargantuan political effort."



However, separation wouldn't be impossible, Adams noted, as constitutions can be amended and unwritten.



According to the constitutional rules in the constitution itself, an amendment of this extent would require unanimous support from both Parliament and all the provinces. But according to a 1998 Supreme Court judgment on the legality of Quebec separating from Canada, if a clear answer arises from a clear referendum question, what comes next is negotiating separation.



"If you look at the rule book, it seems next to impossible," Adams said. "If you look to the Supreme Court of Canada's statement on separation, it looks exceptionally difficult but maybe feasible, if...those negotiations produce some workable separation arrangement."



Adams urged caution in measuring the extent of frustration in Alberta, given that everyone has access to publish their thoughts through social media.



"We can sometimes misinterpret political movements in such an environment, and the rest of Canada, I think, may be under the mistaken impression that there is a viable and vibrant separation movement in Alberta politics taking hold," he said.



"I would need to be convinced of a lot more evidence before I thought that that was a reality."



To me there's a thin line between being a frustrated federalist and being a reluctant separatist, and I'm afraid that Mr. Trudeau, by various acts, has erased that line, at least for me, and I suspect for hundreds of thousands of other westerners, especially in Alberta and Saskatchewan." Jay Hill, former tory MP

[Anonymous]

According to former provincial cabinet minister, Ted Morton, this current separatist movement is not going away anytime soon.



The demographic vulnerability of the West is compounded by our very different regional economies. Combined, Alberta (15.5 per cent), B.C. (13.2 per cent) and Saskatchewan (3.7 per cent) constitute 32.4 per cent — or almost one-third — of Canada's annual GDP. Quebec contributes only 19.5 per cent. Yet despite the fact that the West contributes 66 per cent more to Canada's economy than Quebec, we still have three fewer MPs.



While Western Canada is voter-poor, it is resource-rich. Per capita income in Alberta and Saskatchewan is $78,213 and $69,095, respectively. In Quebec, it is $50,276. Under graduated federal tax rates, the more money that Ottawa spends, the more money that exits Western Canada. These figures help to explain why federal politicians who want to win elections like high-tax, high-spending budgets. Like the Liberals' proposal for a new publicly funded universal prescription drug plan.



This also helps to explain why since 1961 the net fiscal transfer of money out of Alberta has been $611 billion. And why since 2010 Ottawa has taken an average of over $20 billion a year out of Alberta, even when we were running nine consecutive deficit budgets. And why Quebec is now receiving two-thirds of every dollar in the federal equalization program. The electoral math is that simple.



What has been happening to Alberta for the past 50 years is not unique to Canada. The national governments in Spain and Italy routinely raid the treasuries of demographically small but economically wealthier regions to win national elections. Rome siphons revenues from Lombardy and Veneto in northern Italy to help win votes in the poorer but more populous southern Italy. Governments in Madrid do the same to Catalonia, the prosperous region that surrounds Barcelona. Significantly, in the past decade, voters/taxpayers in both Lombardy/Veneto and Catalonia have fought back by forming separatist parties and holding referendums to acquire more regional autonomy or secede. In both countries, these referendums have won strong majority support.



These different examples — Catalonia, Lombardy, Alberta — illustrate variations on a familiar theme in all contemporary democracies: parties try to win elections by promising to give a majority of the voters something for nothing. But instead of targeting wealthier corporations, families and individuals (always a minority of voters), successful national political parties target wealthier regions that have a minority of voters. The electoral math is that simple.



When viewed in this context, there is a growing realization for Albertans that the system itself is fatally flawed. That is, without structural or constitutional change, Alberta will continue to be vulnerable to fiscally predatory Liberal party politics and policies.



As Keith Davey, Pierre Trudeau's campaign strategist, so eloquently put it: "Screw the West. We'll take the Rest." It worked in 1980. It worked in 2019. And it will keep on working until the rules of the game are changed.



So no, the current wave of separatist sentiment in Alberta and Western Canada is not going to quickly dissipate as it has in the past. There is an applicable proverb: "Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me." Or as the French like to say, "Une fois, oui. Deux fois, non!"



The challenge for premiers Jason Kenney and Scott Moe will be to channel this new wave of separatist sentiment into meaningful and productive constitutional reforms. No easy task. Their success will depend in part on how receptive Ottawa will be to meaningful structural changes. To get things started, it might be helpful if the prime minister and his new cabinet googled "No taxation without representation" to learn how a "colonial grievance" sparked the first political revolt in North America.



Ted Morton is an executive fellow at the University of Calgary's School of Public Policy and a former minister of energy and finance in Alberta.

https://calgaryherald.com/opinion/columnists/morton-its-time-for-albertas-revolutionary-boston-tea-party-moment">https://calgaryherald.com/opinion/colum ... rty-moment">https://calgaryherald.com/opinion/columnists/morton-its-time-for-albertas-revolutionary-boston-tea-party-moment

[Anonymous]

In the nine and a half years Harper was pm, the West's economic development was not blocked. The Liberals are usually the federal governing party. We know that electing a federal Conservative government is only a temporary reprieve for Alberta and Saskatchewan. This is different this time.

[Berry Sweet]

I don't know much about politics, only that it is really messed up.  I always felt Canada should have 2 leaders, one for the west and one for the east.  Nobody is doing anything for western Canada...its like we don't exist. 9f course pms come to BC and talk bullshit and take selfies with our beautiful mountains in the background, but thats about it.  

If western Canada wants to separate, id support it.  Id support BC thru Manitoba separating.  I have family in all 4 of those provinces.  Ontario and Quebec can go fuck themselves since they think they are the only province in Canada that exists.  No more equalization payments  and they can take the national debt with them.

[Anonymous]

I don't know much about politics, only that it is really messed up.  I always felt Canada should have 2 leaders, one for the west and one for the east.  Nobody is doing anything for western Canada...its like we don't exist. 9f course pms come to BC and talk bullshit and take selfies with our beautiful mountains in the background, but thats about it.  

If western Canada wants to separate, id support it.  Id support BC thru Manitoba separating.  I have family in all 4 of those provinces.  Ontario and Quebec can go fuck themselves since they think they are the only province in Canada that exists.  No more equalization payments  and they can take the national debt with them.

We would be a lot wealthier than the East.

[Berry Sweet]

I don't know much about politics, only that it is really messed up.  I always felt Canada should have 2 leaders, one for the west and one for the east.  Nobody is doing anything for western Canada...its like we don't exist. 9f course pms come to BC and talk bullshit and take selfies with our beautiful mountains in the background, but thats about it.  

If western Canada wants to separate, id support it.  Id support BC thru Manitoba separating.  I have family in all 4 of those provinces.  Ontario and Quebec can go fuck themselves since they think they are the only province in Canada that exists.  No more equalization payments  and they can take the national debt with them.

We would be a lot wealthier than the East.

Of course! I want our money to go to people in tgeir own provinces.  Bring back more funds for schooling, start breakfast programs at all schools, provide funded tutoring for ALL kids who want it, not this Oxford or Sullivan for $800/mo bullshit, more funds for medical assistance and mental health...the court system need to be revanped or overhauled, get all those old farts off the bench and replace them with those who are modernly trained and get with the fuckin program!  Good Lord, I could go on and on!

[Anonymous]

I don't know much about politics, only that it is really messed up.  I always felt Canada should have 2 leaders, one for the west and one for the east.  Nobody is doing anything for western Canada...its like we don't exist. 9f course pms come to BC and talk bullshit and take selfies with our beautiful mountains in the background, but thats about it.  

If western Canada wants to separate, id support it.  Id support BC thru Manitoba separating.  I have family in all 4 of those provinces.  Ontario and Quebec can go fuck themselves since they think they are the only province in Canada that exists.  No more equalization payments  and they can take the national debt with them.

We would be a lot wealthier than the East.

Of course! I want our money to go to people in tgeir own provinces.  Bring back more funds for schooling, start breakfast programs at all schools, provide funded tutoring for ALL kids who want it, not this Oxford or Sullivan for $800/mo bullshit, more funds for medical assistance and mental health...the court system need to be revanped or overhauled, get all those old farts off the bench and replace them with those who are modernly trained and get with the fuckin program!  Good Lord, I could go on and on!

That sounds like you want a lot of expensive civil servants with defined benefit pensions hired. We won't be a rich country for long if we do that.