Iran’s options in showdown with America all bad

[Anonymous]

The Democrats whipping up hysteria about an imminent war are making a fuss about nothing. No war with Iran is coming. Relax and keep going to the gym to burn those off the Christmas excess.



By  Victor Davis Hanson, classicist and historian at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University



After losing its top strategist, military commander and arch-terrorist, Qassem Soleimani, the Iranian theocracy is weighing responses.



One, Iran can quiet down and cease military provocations. After attacking tankers off its coast, destroying an oil refinery in Saudi Arabia, shooting down a U.S. drone and being responsible for the killing and wounding of Americans in Iraq, Iran could now keep quiet.



It might accept that its strategy of escalation has failed to lead to any quantifiable advantage. Trump did not prove a passive "Twitter tiger," as his critics mocked. Instead, he upped the stakes to Iran's disadvantage and existential danger.



The chances, however, for such a logical and passive readjustment by Iran are nil.



Iran believes that Trump's beefed-up sanctions have all but destroyed its economy and could now extend to secondary boycotts of nations trading with Iran. U.S. sanctions have also squeezed Iranian expeditionary efforts to forge a permanent hegemony and a Shiite crescent extending to the Mediterranean.



If unchecked, American economic pressure could eventually lead to a popular rebellion that would topple the theocracy. In sum, a return to the status quo is unlikely.



Two, Iran can agree to re-enter talks about its nuclear program and offer a few concessions. Iran could concede that the prior agreement was designed to bank Iranian cash and nuclear expertise that would eventually lead to the country developing nuclear weaponry after a period of feigned good behavior.



Yet a return to direct negotiations with Washington is also unlikely, especially since Iran once enjoyed a lopsided gift from the United States. Renegotiating anything less would be too humiliating for the revolutionary regime to endure.



Three, Iran can escalate its military operations and its use of terrorist surrogates. The death of Soleimani is Iran's most grievous setback in decades, and Iran seeks vengeance.



The theocracy will view his death not just in terms of a strategic loss, but as a humiliation that cannot stand. Governments elsewhere in the Middle East are gloating over Soleimani's killing, and especially over the thought of Iran's inability to do much about it.



In reaction, Iran could strike American bases and allies in the region. The possibilities are endless. It might send more drones and missiles against other nations' refineries. Hezbollah could shower Israeli cities with missiles. Iran might close the Strait of Hormuz in hopes of seeing the rest of the world suffer as it has.



Iran could also unleash its terrorist appendages to stage attacks on American and Israeli assets throughout Europe and the U.S., including military bases, airliners and soft civilian targets.



Yet this choice is also unlikely.



The U.S. would not have to invade Iran to end it as a modern state. A strike against the U.S. or its overseas military installations would result in a devastating response. The theocracy knows that in hours, U.S. air power could take out all of Iran's oil refineries, power stations and military bases while suffering few if any causalities.



Given U.S. oil independence and the global adjustments to existing sanctions on



Iranian oil, the near-permanent loss of Iran's oil would not greatly damage the world economy. Iran will bluster and threaten, but waging an all-out war with the U.S. would be suicidal, and Iran knows it.



Four, Iran can continue its periodic attacks on U.S. allies and on troops and contractors in the region. Constant provocation is a not a good alternative, but it's probably seen as preferable to the other poor choices. The strategic aim in such endless tit-for-tat would be to wear down the patience of the U.S. public in an election year.



Given the quick criticism of Soleimani's killing from Trump's progressive domestic opponents, and given the Obama administration's past appeasement in response to Iranian provocations, Tehran might conclude that a hit-and-pause strategy is preferable.



It could incite Trump's political opponents to brand him a warmonger who acted illegally by "assassinating" Soleimani. Iran's hope would be that Trump would lose the support of the antiwar members of his base in key swing states.



If such periodic attacks continued until Election Day, Iran might hope for a President Elizabeth Warren or President Bernie Sanders. Either one would likely resurrect the flawed Iran deal and ignore Iranian aggression in Syria and Iraq.



Iran's goal might be something like re-creating the melodrama of the 1979-1981 hostage crisis, Saddam Hussein's rope-a-dope strategy, or Bill Clinton's three-month bombing campaign in Yugoslavia. Tehran hopes for American strategic ossification that could prove politically toxic.



But that scenario, too, is unlikely. As long as Trump replies with air power disproportionate to any Iranian attacks, he, not Tehran, governs the tempo of the confrontation.



Iran created the current crisis. It has choices, but for now they are all bad

[Anonymous]

My husband and I were watching someone on the news who knows international relations, I forget exactly what he does, say that it's over..



A terrorist who killed Americans was killed and that's it, no war declaration by either side.

[Anonymous]

DUBAI/BAGHDAD — Potentially stepping up international pressure on Tehran, U.S. officials said they believed a Ukrainian passenger plane that crashed in Iran was brought down accidentally by Iranian air defences hours after Iran launched its missile attacks.



Iran denied the reports of missiles downing the plane.



Concern that the war-scarred Mideast was primed for a wider conflict eased after Trump refrained from ordering more military action and Iran's foreign minister said the missile strikes on Iraqi bases that house U.S. forces had "concluded" Tehran's response.

[Gaon]

DUBAI/BAGHDAD — Potentially stepping up international pressure on Tehran, U.S. officials said they believed a Ukrainian passenger plane that crashed in Iran was brought down accidentally by Iranian air defences hours after Iran launched its missile attacks.



Iran denied the reports of missiles downing the plane.



Concern that the war-scarred Mideast was primed for a wider conflict eased after Trump refrained from ordering more military action and Iran's foreign minister said the missile strikes on Iraqi bases that house U.S. forces had "concluded" Tehran's response.

Reading Twitter a person would think the America is invading Iran. There is no invasion or war. Go back to the fake Ukraine quid pro quo leftists.

[Anonymous]

The democRATs are the ones who want a war with Iran. The progtard idiots they have seeking the nomination can't beat Trump on jobs. They need a war, but Trump aint starting one.

[Anonymous]

If Clinton, Bush, or Obama were still president, there would be war with some country by now.

[Anonymous]

It could be nothing else.



HUMAN ERROR BLAMED



OTTAWA — Iran state TV, citing the military, says the country "unintentionally" shot down the Ukrainian jetliner because of human error.



The report out of Tehran contradicts a statement from Iran earlier Friday that strongly denied any responsibility for downing Flight 752, and instead blamed it on a fire in the Boeing 737-800's engine.



The crash Wednesday took the lives of 176 people, including 138 who the federal government says were bound for Canada.



Foreign Affairs Minister Francois-philippe Champagne has said the number of Canadian citizens believed to have been aboard the plane is 57 — not 63 as initially provided by Ukrainian authorities.



On Thursday, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said multiple intelligence sources had indicated the plane was downed by an Iranian missile, possibly by accident — an assessment that has been echoed by Britsh Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Australia's Scott Morrison.



U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo became the highest-level American official to pin blame on Iran when he made similar comments Friday.



The Canadian Press has independently confirmed at least 74 victims with ties to Canada, many of them students at Canadian universities.



The Tehran-Kiev route has been an inexpensive first leg of a trip from Iran to Canada.



The dead also included citizens of Iran, Ukraine, Sweden, the United Kingdom, Afghanistan and Germany.



"We do believe it is likely that that plane was shot down by an Iranian missile," Pompeo said as he and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin announced the sanctions in retaliation for Iran's having launched a salvo of missiles against two military bases in Iraq this week.



Flight 752 went down shortly after Iran launched the missile strikes against the two bases, including one in the northern Iraqi city of Irbil where Canadian special-forces soldiers have been operating for the past five years.



The attack, which didn't cause any casualties, was in response to a U.S. airstrike in Baghdad that killed Iranian Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani last week.

[Anonymous]

It could be nothing else.



HUMAN ERROR BLAMED



OTTAWA — Iran state TV, citing the military, says the country "unintentionally" shot down the Ukrainian jetliner because of human error.



The report out of Tehran contradicts a statement from Iran earlier Friday that strongly denied any responsibility for downing Flight 752, and instead blamed it on a fire in the Boeing 737-800's engine.



The crash Wednesday took the lives of 176 people, including 138 who the federal government says were bound for Canada.



Foreign Affairs Minister Francois-philippe Champagne has said the number of Canadian citizens believed to have been aboard the plane is 57 — not 63 as initially provided by Ukrainian authorities.



On Thursday, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said multiple intelligence sources had indicated the plane was downed by an Iranian missile, possibly by accident — an assessment that has been echoed by Britsh Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Australia's Scott Morrison.



U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo became the highest-level American official to pin blame on Iran when he made similar comments Friday.



The Canadian Press has independently confirmed at least 74 victims with ties to Canada, many of them students at Canadian universities.



The Tehran-Kiev route has been an inexpensive first leg of a trip from Iran to Canada.



The dead also included citizens of Iran, Ukraine, Sweden, the United Kingdom, Afghanistan and Germany.



"We do believe it is likely that that plane was shot down by an Iranian missile," Pompeo said as he and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin announced the sanctions in retaliation for Iran's having launched a salvo of missiles against two military bases in Iraq this week.



Flight 752 went down shortly after Iran launched the missile strikes against the two bases, including one in the northern Iraqi city of Irbil where Canadian special-forces soldiers have been operating for the past five years.



The attack, which didn't cause any casualties, was in response to a U.S. airstrike in Baghdad that killed Iranian Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani last week.

This is embarrassing for the Islamic regime.

[Gaon]

Hundreds protest against regime in Tehran after Iran admits it shot down plane



Hundreds protested against the Iranian regime in Tehran Saturday after the government acknowledged that it accidentally shot down the Ukrainian jetliner that crashed earlier this week, killing all 176 people aboard.



The admission came after Iranian officials had repeatedly denied Western accusations and mounting evidence that it was responsible.



Videos posted to social media showed demonstrators outside Tehran's Amirkabir University chanting against the regime and urging Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei to resign. Calls included "Death to the dictator," "Shame on you Khamenei, leave the country," "Death to the liars," and "Shame on the Revolutionary Guards, let the country go."

https://www.timesofisrael.com/hundreds-protest-against-regime-in-tehran-after-iran-admits-it-shot-down-plane/">https://www.timesofisrael.com/hundreds- ... own-plane/">https://www.timesofisrael.com/hundreds-protest-against-regime-in-tehran-after-iran-admits-it-shot-down-plane/



The accidental shooting down of a commercial flight makes Iran look like a joke internationally and means trouble for the regime domestically.

[Anonymous]

Hundreds protest against regime in Tehran after Iran admits it shot down plane



Hundreds protested against the Iranian regime in Tehran Saturday after the government acknowledged that it accidentally shot down the Ukrainian jetliner that crashed earlier this week, killing all 176 people aboard.



The admission came after Iranian officials had repeatedly denied Western accusations and mounting evidence that it was responsible.



Videos posted to social media showed demonstrators outside Tehran's Amirkabir University chanting against the regime and urging Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei to resign. Calls included "Death to the dictator," "Shame on you Khamenei, leave the country," "Death to the liars," and "Shame on the Revolutionary Guards, let the country go."

https://www.timesofisrael.com/hundreds-protest-against-regime-in-tehran-after-iran-admits-it-shot-down-plane/">https://www.timesofisrael.com/hundreds- ... own-plane/">https://www.timesofisrael.com/hundreds-protest-against-regime-in-tehran-after-iran-admits-it-shot-down-plane/



The accidental shooting down of a commercial flight makes Iran look like a joke internationally and means trouble for the regime domestically.

The people are already dealing with declining living standards thanks to Trump's sanctions. It doesn't take much provocation to get the people riled up at the regime.

[Anonymous]

Iranians — in Iran — are heartbroken, given that most of the passengers were Iranians, or dual citizens of Iran.



And many are furious with their government now that it has acknowledged it was responsible for what it claims was an accidental missile launch.



This after lying for three days, calling it a "technical failure" of the aircraft and accusing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and other western leaders and intelligence agencies of using "psychological warfare" against Iran, when they were telling the truth.



Hundreds of angry students gathered outside Tehran's Amir Kabir University, denouncing Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and condemning Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps — in which assassinated Gen. Qassem Soleimani was a leading figure — which fired the missile.



This was the latest in a wave of anti-government demonstrations going back to November, in the largest popular revolt against the country's theocratic rulers since the Islamic Revolution of 1979.



Set off by a surprise 50% hike in gas prices, Iranians accused Iran's leaders of responsibility for the economic sanctions imposed on Iran because of their military intervention in foreign wars and sponsorship of terrorism.



According to Reuters, 1,500 demonstrators were killed by Iran's security forces during these protests — including units of Soleimani's Revolutionary Guard — with at least 7,000 more arrested.



"The protesters had harsh words for Soleimani and his foreign adventures, chanting against Iran's involvement in Syria and its support of Hezbollah. That came as a shock to the regime, which portrays Soleimani as ... Khamenei's adopted son."



Many Iranians consider Soleimani a war criminal, Alinejad concluded, but western journalists tend to ignore them, thus re-enforcing the myth perpetrated by Iran's leaders that Iranians are united behind them.

https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/goldstein-iranians-now-furious-with-irans-government">https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnis ... government">https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/goldstein-iranians-now-furious-with-irans-government



It just keeps getting worse for the Islamic regime.

[Gaon]

Killing the world's number one terrorist has had the added bonus of destabilizing the Islamic regime.

[Odinson]

Funny thing is that the russian government published their bullshit story too late..



They denied it after the iranians had admitted it..





Oh...Those...Russians...

[Anonymous]

Funny thing is that the russian government published their bullshit story too late..



They denied it after the iranians had admitted it..





Oh...Those...Russians...

The Russians denied what?

[Odinson]

Funny thing is that the russian government published their bullshit story too late..



They denied it after the iranians had admitted it..





Oh...Those...Russians...

The Russians denied what?

The ukraine airlines missile strike.