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Why apocalyptic claims about climate change are wrong

Started by Anonymous, February 21, 2020, 09:35:41 PM

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Anonymous

First, no credible scientific body has ever said climate change threatens the collapse of civilization much less the extinction of the human species. "'Our children are going to die in the next 10 to 20 years.' What's the scientific basis for these claims?" BBC's Andrew Neil asked a visibly uncomfortable XR spokesperson last month.



"But most scientists don't agree with this," said Neil. "I looked through IPCC reports and see no reference to billions of people going to die, or children in 20 years. How would they die?"



"Mass migration around the world already taking place due to prolonged drought in countries, particularly in South Asia. There are wildfires in Indonesia, the Amazon rainforest, Siberia, the Arctic," she said.



But in saying so, the XR spokesperson had grossly misrepresented the science. "There is robust evidence of disasters displacing people worldwide," notes IPCC, "but limited evidence that climate change or sea-level rise is the direct cause"



What about "mass migration"? "The majority of resultant population movements tend to occur within the borders of affected countries," says IPCC.



Last January, after climate scientists criticized Rep. Ocasio-Cortez for saying the world would end in 12 years, her spokesperson said "We can quibble about the phraseology, whether it's existential or cataclysmic." He added, "We're seeing lots of [climate change-related] problems that are already impacting lives."



That last part may be true, but it's also true that economic development has made us less vulnerable, which is why there was a 99.7% decline in the death toll from natural disasters since its peak in 1931.



In 1931, 3.7 million people died from natural disasters. In 2018, just 11,000 did.  And that decline occurred over a period when the global population quadrupled.



What about sea level rise? IPCC estimates sea level could rise two feet (0.6 meters) by 2100. Does that sound apocalyptic or even "unmanageable"?



Consider that one-third of the Netherlands is below sea level, and some areas are seven meters below sea level. You might object that Netherlands is rich while Bangladesh is poor. But the Netherlands adapted to living below sea level 400 years ago. Technology has improved a bit since then.



What about claims of crop failure, famine, and mass death? That's science fiction, not science. Humans today produce enough food for 10 billion people, or 25% more than we need, and scientific bodies predict increases in that share, not declines.



The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) forecasts crop yields increasing 30% by 2050. And the poorest parts of the world, like sub-Saharan Africa, are expected to see increases of 80 to 90%.



Nobody is suggesting climate change won't negatively impact crop yields. It could. But such declines should be put in perspective. Wheat yields increased 100 to 300% around the world since the 1960s, while a study of 30 models found that yields would decline by 6% for every one degree Celsius increase in temperature.



Rates of future yield growth depend far more on whether poor nations get access to tractors, irrigation, and fertilizer than on climate change, says FAO.



All of this helps explain why IPCC anticipates climate change will have a modest impact on economic growth. By 2100, IPCC projects the global economy will be 300 to 500% larger than it is today. Both IPCC and the Nobel-winning Yale economist, William Nordhaus, predict that warming of 2.5°C and 4°C would reduce gross domestic product (GDP) by 2% and 5% over that same period.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2019/11/25/why-everything-they-say-about-climate-change-is-wrong/#1c63682212d6">https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshe ... 63682212d6">https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2019/11/25/why-everything-they-say-about-climate-change-is-wrong/#1c63682212d6



Nobody is saying climate change doesn't need to be addressed. Lowering CO2 emissions is a good idea. But, we the alarmists underestimate industry and science's ability to adapt and flourish.

Anonymous

If history teaches us anything, it's that humans have a penchant for anticipating our End Times. Ancient mythologies from cultures all around the world describe catastrophic floods and religious cults continue to recruit followers with predictions of death by comet or solar flare.

Anonymous

Without bs apocalyptic climate claims the public would never accept carbon taxes and billions in subsidies for so called green businesses.

Anonymous

Quote from: "seoulbro"If history teaches us anything, it's that humans have a penchant for anticipating our End Times. Ancient mythologies from cultures all around the world describe catastrophic floods and religious cults continue to recruit followers with predictions of death by comet or solar flare.

Liz May is exaggerating. :shock:

Anonymous

Progs distort the science of climate change. They make false claims to scare children into despair. That is the consensus. The debate is over and anyone who disputes that is a alarmist denier.

Anonymous

When I was in Taiwan, I noticed they take a more honest view of climate change with real practical solutions from business and government.

Gaon

Climate madness is the governing ideology in Canada.
The Russian Rock It

Anonymous

Quote from: "Gaon"Climate madness is the governing ideology in Canada.

That is because there is so much foreign interference(money) in Canada's political economy.

Anonymous

Quote from: "Herman"Progs distort the science of climate change. They make false claims to scare children into despair. That is the consensus. The debate is over and anyone who disputes that is a alarmist denier.

I read something recently how alarmists cherry pick data to give some legitimacy to their doom and gloom agenda..



Climate change is manageable without putting a contract on Canada's besieged middle class.


Anonymous

UN Climate Report Reveals the Crisis Is About Truth, Not Climate



The problem with climate science today isn't so much the science as shoddy reporting that over-simplifies and over-dramatizes—and a toxic political climate (pun intended) that forbids deviation from the politically correct narrative.



The computer models used by the U.N. and every other climate-focused entity around the world are statistical projections, not precise calculations. The specific models cited in the latest U.N. report are designed to offer a broad range of possible outcomes and formulated using highly suspect and outdated criteria. Yet the report focuses heavily on the model scenarios known to be extremely unlikely—garnering over 40 percent of mentions and almost 100 percent of media coverage.



These same models show that even totally eliminating fossil fuel consumption would have a microscopic influence on global temperatures—less than two-tenths of a degree Celsius even if the full Green New Deal was enacted immediately.



Global weather data shows hurricane activity and frequency have not increased over the long term. News articles fueling climate anxiety usually cite spurious graphs that start the timeline in the 1980s. But the world didn't begin in the 1980s, and there have been several periods in history that saw the same, or worse, hurricane activity as we're experiencing now.



Similarly, although you wouldn't know it from the news, wildfires and floods are on the decline, and recent heat waves in the Pacific Northwest are small potatoes compared to the 180- and 240-year megadroughts the planet experienced between 800 and 1400 A.D.



The even better news? You and I are 99 percent less likely to die in a severe weather event than our great grandparents. In 1920, global climate-related disasters killed almost 500,000 people every year. Today, even though the world's population has quadrupled, fewer than 20,000 die from climate-related disaster. In fact, cold-related deaths are over 40 times more common than heat-related deaths in the United States and Canada.



If we're becoming more resilient to disasters that are happening less often, what's the crisis? It's not a climate crisis, but a crisis of truth.



The climate activists who demand "follow the science" appear remarkably uninterested in the nuances and uncertainties of the research they believe supports their ideology.



While activists march against fossil fuels and let their children believe their future has no hope amid rising seas and dying rainforests, they've turned a blind eye to the fact that humanity is better off now than it ever has been. Extreme poverty is at its lowest rate in recorded history, and people are living longer, healthier, freer, and more comfortable lives than ever before. Climate change or no climate change, the future is bright if we only look past the hysteria and seek to truly understand the world around us.



As former Obama-era undersecretary for science Steve Koonin explains in his book "Unsettled," climate reporting is like a game of telephone. The U.N.'s Sixth Assessment Report is a 3,949-page PDF. It's easy to understand why reporters on deadline fail to meticulously comb through the entire document or the catalog of research it cites. They simply don't have time to dig past the simplistic talking points, so they select the most shocking and click-inducing claims without delving into the methodology or scientific uncertainties. It's understandable, but it's also a disservice to the public. Something needs to change.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/mkt_morningbrief/un-climate-report-reveals-the-crisis-is-about-truth-not-climate_3945984.html?utm_source=morningbriefnoe&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=mb-2021-08-13&mktids=97b5e1afca7cf25d4e89f16bd3b41de5&est=m7UwAkxl8iG6ywsGbfqh1S3yNDdh0AXA6g%2BCXXB93n1jQejE5uINyHIQ2RrGENM4Cw%3D%3D">https://www.theepochtimes.com/mkt_morni ... M4Cw%3D%3D">https://www.theepochtimes.com/mkt_morningbrief/un-climate-report-reveals-the-crisis-is-about-truth-not-climate_3945984.html?utm_source=morningbriefnoe&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=mb-2021-08-13&mktids=97b5e1afca7cf25d4e89f16bd3b41de5&est=m7UwAkxl8iG6ywsGbfqh1S3yNDdh0AXA6g%2BCXXB93n1jQejE5uINyHIQ2RrGENM4Cw%3D%3D

Anonymous

On Monday, as the new UN climate report was making headlines and being wildly distorted by media, I noticed that Twitter's official "Here's what you need to know" summary said:

"UN scientists found that temperatures on Earth will rise by about 1.5C in around two decades."



No, the report predicts that in two decades there will be a total rise of 1.5C since the 1800s.

Anonymous

Inconvenient Truth 1: Human beings are safer than ever from climate. The rate of climate-related disaster deaths—deaths from extreme temperatures, droughts, wildfires, storms, and floods—has decreased by 98% over the last century.



Inconvenient Truth 2: Fossil fuels' CO2 emissions have contributed to the warming of the last 170 years, but that warming has been slow and masterable—1 degree Celsius, mostly in colder parts of the world. And life on Earth thrived when CO2 levels were more than 5 times today's.



Inconvenient Truth 3: Fossil fuels have actually made us far safer from climate by providing low-cost energy for the amazing machines that protect us against storms, protect us against extreme temperatures, and alleviate drought.



Inconvenient Truth 4: Low-cost, reliable, versatile, global-scale energy from fossil fuels has made humanity so productive that since 1980, the fraction of people living in extreme poverty—less than $2 a day—has gone from more than 4 in 10 to less than 1 in 10.



Inconvenient Truth 5: Cold is a far greater danger to humans than heat--and thus, as a recent Lancet publication explained, we should expect warming to save more cold-related deaths than it causes heat-related deaths.



Inconvenient Truth 6: Thanks in part to CO2 fertilization, but in larger part to fossil fueled productivity, humanity has never been better fed than today. There is no danger of not being able to feed humanity if we have low-cost, reliable, global-scale energy.



Inconvenient Truth 7: UN spokespeople have a 50-year track record of making 180° wrong catastrophe predictions. They are *catastrophizers* who wildly overstate the negative side-effects of industry and ignore the huge benefits, including climate mastery.

Anonymous

https://scontent.fyxd1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/p843x403/236098283_4461705347183987_5324473738683610322_n.png?_nc_cat=104&ccb=1-5&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=nfwm8HnQvbsAX9V3cDm&_nc_ht=scontent.fyxd1-1.fna&oh=02e98379a6bfbc4ebb317133e89b38e4&oe=612301B7">

Anonymous

Yes, carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere has increased significantly, and, yes, the human use of burning fossil fuels has augmented the increase from ~290 ppm in the 19th century to 415 ppm today.



And contrary to claims by Guterres that deforestation is a growing problem, the CO2 enrichment of Earth's atmosphere in recent decades has led to a planetary greening—a net addition of areas covered by vegetation that is over twice as large as Australia.



It is also important to realize that the IPCC is a political, not a scientific body (hence its name, the Intergovernmental Panel ...). The political powers behind the IPCC have explicitly stated that their main goal is to transform the global economy. We should also realize that the charter that governs the IPCC explicitly grants discretionary power to the political overseers of the project to modify statements made by scientists to fit the desired political narrative and agenda. What we desperately need—especially in light of the broken peer review process (one Nobel Prize winner calls it "very distorted" and "completely corrupt," with some asserting that published scientific research is "untrustworthy"; then there's the corrupting influence of government money) is a separation of science and state.



With all that having been said, let us acknowledge two sobering realities: One, the climate will continue to change. Whether the temperature will be warmer or cooler in coming centuries, I don't know and neither do the world's climate scientists, but it definitely will change. Two, extreme weather events will continue to batter humanity periodically regardless of what the overall climate is.