EV's, Reliable Power, et al

[Lokmar]

Would you mind explaining what SHTF and NG/LPV mean.

Sure. NG/LPV is natural gas OR LP vapor (LP=liquid propane). These fuel sources are reliable for short term emergency needs.

SHTF is shit hits the fan. In situations like SHTF, the natural gas supply will be cut off. Diesel engines can run off improvised fuel such as converted french fry grease and motor oil. In a SHTF scenario, people will be able to run diesel engines much more frequently than NG/LPV.

[Frood]

LPV might be what the rest of the world knows as LPG (liquid petroleum gas).

Tomato, potato....

[Lokmar]

LPV might be what the rest of the world knows as LPG (liquid petroleum gas).

Tomato, potato....

Correct. In the power generation world, its important to designate between LP, and LPV.

[Frood]

Correct. In the power generation world, its important to designate between LP, and LPV.

Many places abroad designate it as either Natural Gas or Liquid Petroleum Gas.... then you have inventors with their proprietary fuel burning devices who mix up all that and more, and mass market the convenience in small bottles for smaller creations. Some do both, or all... like camp stoves... some are critically stuck to one path or another.

I like options though, and purchase accordingly.

[Lokmar]

Many places abroad designate it as either Natural Gas or Liquid Petroleum Gas.... then you have inventors with their proprietary fuel burning devices who mix up all that and more, and mass market the convenience in small bottles for smaller creations. Some do both, or all... like camp stoves... some are critically stuck to one path or another.

I like options though, and purchase accordingly.

All generators burn vapor but it's important to know if the gen has a vapor mixer OR a vaporizer and THEN a vapor mixer. That determines what equipment is needed to connect the fuel source to the gen. If you run a liquid line to a LPV gen, it wont run.

[Oerdin]

I have never heard of that anywhere in Canada.

It has been going on decades here.  Maybe a difference on laws.

[Frood]

All generators burn vapor but it's important to know if the gen has a vapor mixer OR a vaporizer and THEN a vapor mixer. That determines what equipment is needed to connect the fuel source to the gen. If you run a liquid line to a LPV gen, it wont run.

Yup, but I was more talking about mixes for climate and altitudes.

I carry 6 stoves in my vehicle... 1 is a Solo so not pertinent to this conversation, but the others rely on straight LPG/NG (with adaptations) or gas (vapour) mixes. One is completely liquid and does a few.

I must admit, I prefer the ease of using various small mix canisters to do a short job in peaceful times but for longer stays, nothing beats a 3-4-9 kilo bottle of whatever is on hand.

[Brent]

[Thiel]

Sure. NG/LPV is natural gas OR LP vapor (LP=liquid propane). These fuel sources are reliable for short term emergency needs.

SHTF is shit hits the fan. In situations like SHTF, the natural gas supply will be cut off. Diesel engines can run off improvised fuel such as converted french fry grease and motor oil. In a SHTF scenario, people will be able to run diesel engines much more frequently than NG/LPV.

LOL, thanks.

[Oliver the Second]

Ford cuts F-150 Lightning production as EV demand softens



Ford Motors said on Friday it would reduce production of its F-150 Lightning pickup truck, as demand for electric vehicles has been lower than expected.

The No. 2 U.S. automaker said it would cut production at its Michigan Rouge Electric Vehicle Center to one shift starting April 1. In October, the automaker said it would temporarily cut one of three shifts at the Michigan plant that builds the electric F-150 Lightning pickup truck.

"We are taking advantage of our manufacturing flexibility to offer customers choices while balancing our growth and profitability," said Ford CEO Jim Farley in a statement.

The announcement is the latest sign of slowing demand for EV trucks. General Motors in October postponed the opening of a $4 billion electric truck plant in Michigan for a year.

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/ford-reduce-f-150-lightning-production-2024-01-19/

[Herman]

[Thiel]

The federal Liberals may be willing to risk hundreds of billions of your tax dollars and mine for manufacturing subsidies, purchase subsidies and EV infrastructure to try to force a market for electrics into existence, but Canadians are just not ready to get rid of their internal combustion engines (ICEs). And with good reason.

I read about someone in northern Manitoba. He has a Ford Lightning (the fully electric version of the F-150 pickup). When the temperature fell to -40C last week, his truck's range dropped by half after driving it just 18 kms. He was forced to abandon his work-related trip so he could return home before the charge ran out and he found himself stranded quite literally in the middle of nowhere without heat in the cab.

Another person, this one from Winnipeg, found that not only was his range severely reduced by the cold, but charging time was doubled. His wait at a public fast-charger was two hours instead of one because he had to keep the heat on in his Tesla.

Many charging stations across the country have also been reported to stop working in the extreme cold.

Since this is a country that experiences extreme cold (below -25C) most winters, that makes an EV an unacceptable risk, or at the very least a horrible inconvenience.

Also this week, the highly respected testing magazine, Consumer Reports, said that when temperatures are only as cold as +7C, EVs lose about 25% of their range compared to temperatures of +15C and a third when compared to temps of +25C.

Additionally, Consumer Reports (CR) found that "short trips in the cold with frequent stops and the need to reheat the cabin after a parking pause saps 50% of the range." That means EVs may be impractical in Canada even for urban commuters or suburban families.

Late last year, CR also concluded EVs are 73% less reliable than gasoline vehicles. As well, they were more expensive to maintain and repair. And when the costs of electricity and home chargers are included, EVs are at least as expensive as gasoline vehicles to refuel.

That puts the lie to Guilbeault's claim (made in December when announcing his mandate that all new vehicles be EVs by 2035) that while EVs are more expensive to buy, once consumers drive them off the lot, they become much more affordable than gasoline or diesel vehicles.

Not only are EVs more expensive to buy and maintain, because of their weight, they chew through tires about 40% faster. They are more expensive to insure because they cost so much more to repair if they are involved in an accident. They depreciate faster than ICEs. And their batteries lose up to half of their life in four or five years, even if they are fully charged.

All of this explains why car-rental giant, Hertz, announced earlier this month that it was selling its EV fleet – 20,000 cars. They are just too expensive.

Electric vehicles may not be that good for the environment, either.

Many components are, of course, manufactured in China (or by Chinese companies operating elsewhere) using electricity from coal-fired power plants. And this week, Blacklock's Reporter revealed the federal Fisheries department is reviewing Northvolt, the Swedish battery maker building a heavily-subsidized plant in Quebec, for potential harm to fisheries, wetlands and streams.

The Liberals' EV mandate is a very, very expensive farce that will likely produce few, if any, environmental benefits.

[DKG]

Don't gamble with our electricity supply

The recent cold snap across Canada has pointed out yet again — as if Canadians living in the coldest country on earth didn't already know — that's it's a bad idea to play Russian roulette with Canada's electricity sector in the pursuit of "green energy."

Wind and solar power can't provide base load power to the electricity grid on demand and won't be able to until the technology of battery storage is capable of powering industrialized economies.

Any province increasing its reliance on wind and solar energy has to be careful to have back-up forms of power that it can ramp up quickly to meet sudden spikes in demand for power, such as natural gas plants.

Canada's electricity sector is a minor player in the federal government's ideologically driven plan to have it achieve net zero emissions by 2035.

Generating electricity is the second-lowest emitter of greenhouse gases in the seven major sectors of the Canadian economy that produce them.

In 2021, the last year for which federal data is available, it produced 51.7 million tonnes (MT) of emissions, a 56% drop from the 117.6 MT it produced in 2005.

Recklessly changing the energy mix needed to supply reliable electricity in pursuit of ideologically-driven climate goals, risks blackouts and driving up the cost of electricity.

Similarly, upgrading electricity systems across Canada — the responsibility of the provinces — given Ottawa's target of making 100% of all new car sales in Canada EVs by 2035, will not only be expensive but must be done carefully to ensure adequate electricity supply.

It's the easiest thing in the world for governments to announce targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions years down the road.

The hard work comes in attempting to achieve those goals without undermining the stability and reliability of the entire electricity system.

The priority must be ensuring Canadians have a reliable supply of affordable electricity in the pursuit of lower emissions.
https://torontosun.com/opinion/editorials/editorial-dont-gamble-with-our-electricity-supply

[DKG]

Asheville, North Carolina, is looking to reinvest in biodiesel-powered buses after investing millions of dollars in an electric fleet that is only partly operable, WLOS reported.

Cities across America are starting to regret their massive electric bus investments as they continue to pour funds into costly, time-consuming repairs.

Asheville purchased five Proterra electric buses in 2018 for $5 million. Since then, the city has spent more than $200,000 to build vehicle chargers. Additionally, Asheville spends $118,000 annually for the contract to lease the buses' batteries and another $45,481 to charge the vehicles, according to Asheville's interim transportation director, Jessica Morriss.

"f you added that altogether, I think, probably $900,000 to $1 million is what each one cost. And, since then, we've had to invest additional money into maintaining them and fixing them," she added.

[DKG]

Morgan Stanley warns EV momentum is 'stalling' — and lists 7 reasons Tesla should be worried

1. Price cuts
Tesla kept an edge over its competitors in 2023 by driving down average EV prices with a slew of price cuts — made possible by Tesla's industry-leading profit margins. Heading into the fourth quarter of 2023, Tesla's margins still outpaced its competitors, though the gap was closing.

Jonas points to German Tesla price cuts as a warning sign for the year ahead. The reductions came days after Tesla announced production cuts in Berlin, a move that typically has a positive impact on pricing.


2. Waning EV incentives
Tesla is quickly running out of government incentive programs for potential shoppers, particularly in the US. Earlier this month, the list of vehicles eligible for up to $7,500 in tax credits dwindled to just 13 cars, of which only three are Tesla models.

Jonas and his team, who remain bullish on Tesla shares with a new price target of $345, are expecting more pullbacks like this in other countries as governments assess budgets in 2024.

3. Uncertain EV residual values
The mix of discounts and government incentives that helped Tesla keep its lead in the EV market this year is likely to have longer-term negative effects on pricing for the brand.

"Residual value volatility hurts the value proposition for consumers and creates uncertainty around leasing partners who don't want to hold the risk," Jonas wrote.

Electric cars already have some of the worst resale values in the automotive industry, though Tesla leads this pack with the Model 3's residual value.

4. EVs are losing favor among fleet buyers
Tesla was a recent high-profile victim of fleet buyers moving away from EV commitments. Car-rental company Hertz, which initially raised much fanfare over its partnership with Tesla, said earlier this month it would sell off a third of its global EV fleet and replace those vehicles with gas-powered cars.

That spells trouble for Tesla's volumes, as fleet sales are often used as a dumping ground for vehicles with more supply than demand.

5. Political risks in the 2024 Presidential election
EVs have enjoyed four years of government support and incentives under the Biden Administration, which initially bolstered the industry's commitment to battery-powered cars. However, a looming rematch between Biden and former President Donald Trump has investors worried about future support for Biden's clean energy incentives.

"Any potential rollback of EV incentives would be an impediment for the pace of EV adoption," Jonas wrote.

6. Production capacity in China
A supply and demand imbalance for electric vehicles appears poised to hit China this year after a sprint to the finish in 2023 and the expiration of some key local stimulus measures, Jonas wrote.

This imbalance is already playing out on a smaller scale in the US, with several executives pulling back on future EV ambitions recently.

7. Slowing EV exports out of China
Related to China's looming overcapacity issue, the country's government said this month it would rein in EV exports and crack down on "blind" production of electric cars.

Anecdotally, Jonas also pointed to rumblings that customers are returning to gas-powered cars and shifting away from EVs while interested EV buyers become more intrigued by used electric cars.