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Bring forth, the 2023 Energy©

Started by Blazor, January 01, 2023, 02:36:17 PM

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Blazor

Quote from: Garraty_47 post_id=489992 time=1672771603 user_id=3381
Quote from: Blazor post_id=489979 time=1672764539 user_id=2221
Sedated much? lulz  :laugh:


Have to be if you wanna do the Blitzkrieg Bop correctly!


"Po-go, lets go!"  :laugh:
I've come here to chew bubble gum, and kick ass. And I'm all out of bubblegum.

Blazor

https://media.gab.com/cdn-cgi/image/width=700,quality=100,fit=scale-down/system/media_attachments/files/124/041/535/original/01cb9b88c373e645.jpg">
I've come here to chew bubble gum, and kick ass. And I'm all out of bubblegum.

Garraty_47

Quote from: Blazor post_id=489993 time=1672771985 user_id=2221
"Po-go, lets go!"  :laugh:


Gabba Gabba Hey!

Blazor

DON'T SHUT UP ABOUT WHAT YOU KNOW IS TRUE



https://www.bitchute.com/video/gO8kWofE428/">https://www.bitchute.com/video/gO8kWofE428/
I've come here to chew bubble gum, and kick ass. And I'm all out of bubblegum.

DKG

Some possibilities this year.



Oil, Crypto, and Gold Perform

Energy markets will continue their bull run for the foreseeable future as a result of continued supply disruptions and refinery constraints. Bitcoin and Ethereum emerge from a long, dark crypto winter, but altcoins remain frozen out. The dollar begins a long, if slow and turbulent, slide from 2022 highs, as peak demand from rapidly rising interest rates eases.



Continued Rise of Resource Nationalism

The unforgettable geopolitical lesson of the pandemic era has been that just-in-time supply-chain dependence on countries that many or may not have another nation's interest at heart represents a dangerous strategic folly. It's well and good that we learned this lesson when we did. Countries around the world are now aggressively working to realign their supply chains and ensure that they have strategic resources in adequate supply to meet unexpected, Black Swan events. Look for increasingly protectionist and nationalistic policies to dominate trade discussions.



Traditional Global Alliances Break, New Ones Form


Long-standing partnerships, such as the United States's relationship with Saudi Arabia, have already begun to unravel. Expect further strengthening of the China and Russia-led alliance involving former U.S. allies, or at least non-aligned nations such as India, Turkey, South Africa, and Brazil. Most vulnerable to geopolitical shifts are countries in Africa, Southeast Asia, and South America. Because of sanctions warfare and incoherent or at least inconsistent foreign policy, the United States ends up in a net deficit position, losing more friends than it gains in this process.



U.S. Dollar Dominance Continues to Erode

Hard money returns to favor, with commodity-backed currencies taking the spotlight. Alt payment systems, petrodollars being replaced with petrorubles or petroyuans, as well as central bank-issued digital currencies, will all conspire to slowly erode the U.S. dollar's share of global financial and trade flows.



The West, Weary of Cost of Ukraine War, Sues for Peace

While it may not be realistic to think that Russia can bomb the Ukrainian people into submission, the increasing costs of supporting Ukraine's war with Russia will challenge political leaders across the West. This fatigue will increase as more citizens start to ask reasonable questions about whether hundreds of billions of dollars or euros might not be better spent to take on some of the domestic economic and social challenges that these nations face at home. Eventually, Western governments and Putin each decide that a half a loaf is better than no loaf at all.



Domino Effect of Exposure

The recent uncovering of high-level frauds and corruptions involving U.S. government agencies and personnel continues. Increasing transparency leads to accountability. Eventually, the evidence becomes too overwhelming to ignore; arrests, trials, and convictions ensue. Congressional hearings lead to wave of resignations and first steps toward fundamental institutional reform.



China Barks, but Doesn't Bite, at Taiwan

While we should expect the growling and barking to grow louder, with more frequent air space incursions, naval activity, intimidations, and outright threats, it is highly unlikely that China invades Taiwan in 2023. While China most certainly would prefer to confront Taiwan while the Biden administration remains in power, rather than face an improbable return of Donald Trump to the presidency, Xi Jingping's government will conclude that they are not ready, militarily, politically, or otherwise, to invade Taiwan. Domestic issues, including a worsening economy and rising social unrest within mainland China, will mean that creating a row with the United States and other trading partners in the West remains untenable for the time being. While Russia might be able to make do without selling gas to Germany, there is no way the Chinese economy can survive if abruptly cuts itself off from the United States and Western Europe.



Second-Half Rebound in Economy and Markets

While I am not optimistic about the first half, I take great comfort in the breadth and resilience of the American economy. There is enormous unleashed latent potential in oil and gas, in manufacturing onshoring, in supply-chain realignment, and in new technologies such as AI, quantum computing, blockchain, and cold fusion.



More of the Same

What could derail a more V-shaped recovery are the same forces that helped bring the recession about: poor policy decisions that continue to damage our energy industry, keep our borders insecure, and fail to dismantle the out-of-control regulatory bureaucracy that is impeding innovation in energy, manufacturing, financial services, and technology. These are some of the largest sectors in the economy and those which have been most negatively affected by the Biden administration's imprudent return to Obama-era economic policies.