NOOK CHINA!!!!

[Lokmar]

A new assessment determining that "all indications point to" China's People's Liberation Army meeting Beijing's goal of potentially invading Taiwan by 2027 signals that the U.S. is taking the possibility of war "more seriously," China experts say.

Adm. John Aquilino, head of the Indo-Pacific Command, recently told the Republican-led House Armed Services Committee that China's military will be prepared to invade Taiwan by 2027.

Aquilino's assessment comes as China has spent the past several years ratcheting up its military pressure on Taiwan by intensifying its "one China" rhetoric and conducting aggressive military drills.

President Xi Jinping has threatened to use force to reunite the democratic island nation with China's mainland if necessary. The dispute over the island dates to a 1949 civil war that split China and Taiwan. Since the war, Beijing has viewed and officially considers Taiwan to be a rogue, breakaway province.

"The point here is we have to be prepared for anything at any place at any time," said China author and expert Gordon Chang.

Aquilino told lawmakers that since 2020, China has added more than 400 fighter aircraft and 20 major warships while doubling its ballistics and cruise missiles.

He also noted that China has increased spending by 16% to more than $223 billion and has been simulating what an invasion of the island would look like through mock maritime and air blockades.

The 2027 target date echoes concerns raised last year by Taiwan's foreign minister Joseph Wu. He said Taipei was "taking the Chinese military threat very seriously," and warned that "2027 is the year that we need to be serious about."

Even though China may be gearing up for a conflict and practicing large-scale combat drills regularly, experts agree that Beijing hasn't committed to waging a war just yet.

Tim Heath, a China expert and senior international defense researcher for the Rand Corporation, pointed out that there is "no evidence that China's leadership has decided to risk a war to unify with Taiwan."

He contends that Aquilino was pointing out that there is "evidence that the leadership has told the military to develop capabilities that could be used to invade Taiwan, if they make that decision."

Because China's leadership has directed its military to "meet modernization goals by 2027," he said it could ultimately result in a People's Liberation Army that is "capable of carrying out an invasion if the leadership changes its mind."

Even though Beijing has continued to display belligerent behavior toward Taiwan, Heath assesses that there is a "low likelihood of war."

"I see no evidence that China is preparing to start a war with the U.S. and/or Taiwan for the near term," he said.

Chang said the latest warning about China's military preparedness is less about Xi waking up one morning and deciding to launch an invasion and more about the fact that China has engaged in some "very belligerent behavior that could trigger war."

China's territorial claims aren't limited to Taiwan, either. It has contentious territorial claims in the South China Sea, an area that includes islands close to the Philippine shore.

Chinese coast guard ships have used water cannons on Philippine supply boats to block the vessel from approaching Second Thomas Shoal.

Philippine officials have also reported a string of close calls as their vessels delivered supplies to Filipino marines and sailors stationed on the disputed shoal.

In October, a Chinese coast guard ship and accompanying vessel rammed into a Philippine coast guard ship and a military-run supply boat, drawing a harsh rebuke from the U.S. State Department.

"Any of these conflicts could end up in a conflict," Chang warns. "Those acts actually constitute acts of war."

Chang contends that the current American military leadership and political establishment "understands" the threat on a "theoretical level" but "doesn't have a sense of urgency necessary for the situation."

He points out that the U.S. "continues to issue written and oral warnings" to China that are seemingly ignored.

Considering China "keeps ignoring those warnings" and is continuing its "course of conduct," he wonders if the U.S. is prepared to adhere to Article IV of the 1951 U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty.

Armed attacks on Philippine forces and vessels in the South China Sea, one of the world's busiest trade routes, are covered under the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty.

Last month, the State Department reiterated the United States' support for the Philippines in the area in a lengthy statement condemning China's "dangerous actions" against "lawful Philippine maritime operations in the South China Sea on March 23."

It called out Chinese vessels' "repeated employment of water cannons and reckless blocking maneuvers" that "resulted in injuries to Filipino service members and significant damage to their resupply vessel, rendering it immobile."

The statement condemned Beijing for preventing "normal personnel rotations" and accused China of depriving Filipino service members stationed at the Second Thomas Shoal of "necessary provisions."

"This incident marks only the latest in the PRC's repeated obstruction of Philippine vessels' exercise of high seas freedom of navigation and disruption of supply lines to this longstanding outpost," it continued. "The PRC's actions are destabilizing to the region and show clear disregard for international law."

The statement also noted that an international tribunal ruled in July 2016 that China has "no lawful maritime claims to the waters around Second Thomas Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal is a low tide feature clearly within the Philippines exclusive economic zone."

Though the 2016 arbitration ruling ordered by the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea invalidated Beijing's claims on historical grounds to virtually the entire South China Sea, China has rejected the decision outright and repeatedly defied it.

The statement also reiterated that the U.S. "reaffirms" its commitment to the mutual defense treaty, which "extends to armed attacks on Philippine armed forces, public vessels, or aircraft – including those of its Coast Guard – anywhere in the South China Sea."

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. issued a statement where he pledged his commitment to countering "illegal, coercive, aggressive, and dangerous attacks" by the Chinese coast guard.

Chang fears that China essentially has concluded it can get away with its provocations without facing any major consequences.

He pointed out that China seized the Scarborough Shoal in 2012 after a contentious standoff with the Philippines. China may be under the impression it can get away with its provocations if it is operating under the assumption that the U.S. won't come to Manila's defense.

The U.S. and Philippine Air Forces are scheduled to conduct their first combat training exercise of the year later this month. Troops will operate from a newly renovated runway at Basa Air Base.

The exercise comes after the U.S. made a major investment in the Philippines, adding four more military bases.

Chang argues that China will continue to go after the Philippines because it is a "softer" target.

"Taiwan is a hard military target," he said.

He also doesn't believe that a war against Taiwan would be "popular" on the mainland.

Because Chinese people consider Taiwanese people to be Chinese and they are indoctrinated to believe that Chinese "should not kill" other Chinese, he said an invasion would likely be a tough sell to Chinese living on the mainland.

Even if war is not on the horizon — Aquilino's latest assessment was consistent with Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines' view a year ago that China doesn't want to go to war — Chang said it appears that the U.S. is taking the possibility of a non-peaceful reunification "more seriously."

[Shen Li]

Gordon Chang is Fox's go to man on China. Not one of his predictions has ever come true. Remember his book The Coming Collapse Of China. China was supposed to collapse by 2011.