Data Debunks GOP's Coloured Voter Fixation

[Herman]

Democrats don't stigmatize white voters because they don't matter — they do it because white voters do matter.

I am about to debunk virtually everything you've been told, including from much of your so-called conservative media, about how elections work and what we need to do to win. Let's start with Republicans and the black vote over the last 40 years.

Here is the percentage of the black vote relative to the overall electorate, followed by the percentage of black voters who voted Republican:



These numbers all look very similar regardless of the style of Republican in the race. In 2016, Trump got 8% of the black vote on the way to victory, and then Jared Kushner convinced him to empty the prisons through "criminal justice reform." In return, he got 12% of the black vote and a loss in 2020, failing to improve on Bob Dole's margin with black voters in 1996 despite an all-time high black turnout.

Now ask yourself if the level of GOP media obsession with this segment of the American electorate is worth it.

The GOP has a white voter problem that won't be solved by giving up on the culture war and having a black bisexual ex-stripper speak at the Republican National Convention.

So what should we be obsessing over instead, Steve? Glad you asked, because it's actually white voters where the GOP's problem lies. Let's examine the white women vote over the last 20 years, since I couldn't find reliable exit polling data before 2000:



John McCain won white women over Barack Obama by six points in 2008. Then at least 4 million white voters, many of them women, didn't vote in 2012 after voting four years earlier. Had Mitt Romney replicated McCain's turnout, he would have defeated Obama even in the face of record black turnout.

In 2016, Donald Trump won white women, 52% to 48%, despite going up against Hillary Clinton, who was looking to become the first female president in American history. Four years later, if Trump had just turned out white women at the rate McCain did, he'd not only have won re-election but probably the popular vote as well.

Now let's look at the white married vote since 2000:



George W. Bush got 57% of the married vote in 2004 when it weighed in at an all-time high of 63% of the overall electorate. When that dropped to 60% four years later, McCain got rolled while still beating Obama with married people.

Between 2016 and 2020, Trump gained one point in the percentage of the married vote but lost three points in the overall turnout of that demographic, leading to his election loss. If Trump in 2020 had performed with married people at Mitt Romney's level in 2012, he would be finishing his second term right now.

Wanna get nuts now? Let's rank states by black population to find out how truly lost we are in our electoral strategery:



Wait, you mean to tell me that most of the states (seven out of 10) that have the highest black population are never contested and are either solidly red or solidly blue? Only three out of 10 of those states would be considered battleground states.

So once again I ask if these numbers line up with the level of obsession that occurs in conservative media about how to win elections.

They do not.

So here are some vital conclusions if, you know, you are tired of losing like I am:

Six of the top 13 states with the highest percentage of black voters are reliably red states that Republicans haven't lost since before 1980.
Only 7.22% of California's population is black. In fact, Kansas has a higher percentage of black residents than California. Yet California is considered the strongest Democratic state in the union. So why are we always desperately trying to prove we aren't racists if the numbers show it doesn't even matter? There are no good answers to that.
Only 12 states in the union have Hispanic populations greater than 15%. Among those, only four — Arizona, Nevada, Florida, and Colorado — are considered battleground states. The other 11 are states that have not changed parties in a presidential election so far this century. So why are we even considering amnesty with this information in mind? Again, there are only bad answers.
To be clear, the GOP has a white voter problem that won't be solved by giving up on the culture war and having a black bisexual ex-stripper speak at the Republican National Convention. That's not how this works. It won't even make a dent in the Democrats' minority vote stranglehold and will alienate frustrated white voters who simply want their kids to be safe from illegal aliens and groomers. You know, little stuff like that.

Many people in this industry don't know this data and are likely following the narrative fed to them by Fox News. But the narrative is wrong and explains a lot about how and why we lose. Democrats don't stigmatize white voters because they don't matter; they do it because white voters do matter! Democrats guilt white voters into voting for them and guilt conservative media and strategists into chasing DEI fantasy gibberish.

I insist we get off that ride. Because I actually want to win before the lights go out for good.

[Herman]

That graph begins with Reagan in 84, Bush 1 in 88, and continues in sequence to Trump in 2020.