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Re: Forum gossip thread by Trump’s Niece
Started by Bricktop, July 29, 2015, 03:46:47 AM
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Climate change proponents still can't make their minds up on what's happening, if anything. They've oscillated between ice ages and catastrophic warming over the last 45-50 years. When global warming predictions don't eventuate in their 15 year study durations, it becomes climate change while still being referred to as global warming and the statistics are omitted from official statements, even as evidence mounts that polar ice is actually growing over some of our more recent years and that tree rings and soil striations indicate a relatively smooth cycling through the centuries and millenniums.Quote from: "Dinky Dianna"
It's become the Church of Latter Day Chicken Little's.
The first half of 2015 was the warmest first six months on record for the globe, according to a pair independent analyses from government scientists released Monday.Quote
Global temperatures from January through June 2015 exceeded 2010 as the warmest first half of any year, according to NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies and NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.
This follows a record warm 2014 for the planet. The NOAA analysis found that Earth set a record warm June for the second year in a row.
A third, separate analysis from the Japanese Meteorological Agency also found June 2015 to be the globe's hottest June, topping June 2014 in records dating to 1891.
Nine of the 10 warmest years in NASA's 134-year database have occurred this century, with the exception of 1998, which featured the tail end of one of the strongest El Ninos on record.
The last year in NASA's dataset globally cooler than average was 1976.
The last cooler-than-average month in NASA's dataset was September 1992, more than 22 years ago. In the 462 months from January 1977 through June 2015, only seven months have been cooler than average, according to NASA.http://www.weather.com/news/climate/news/earth-record-warmest-january-june-2015"> //http://www.weather.com/news/climate/news/earth-record-warmest-january-june-2015
Quote from: "Romero"Climate change proponents still can't make their minds up on what's happening, if anything. They've oscillated between ice ages and catastrophic warming over the last 45-50 years. When global warming predictions don't eventuate in their 15 year study durations, it becomes climate change while still being referred to as global warming and the statistics are omitted from official statements, even as evidence mounts that polar ice is actually growing over some of our more recent years and that tree rings and soil striations indicate a relatively smooth cycling through the centuries and millenniums.Quote from: "Dinky Dianna"
It's become the Church of Latter Day Chicken Little's.
Climate change proponents and the scientific consensus have always said the globe is warming. It's the deniers who still can't make up their minds. "It's warming, it's cooling, the Sun is hotter, it snowed somewhere, I hate Al Gore"...
The terms "global warming" and "climate change" have both been used for decades. Because global warming = climate change. Cause and effect. It's what they've been explaining all along.
"They said it was cloudy, but now they say it's raining. That makes no sense! How can it be cloudy and raining at the same time?"
Here's what I have yet to see a denier address, despite it being the core of the problem:Quote from: "reel"
The sun shines on the earth, delivering radiative heat energy to the surface.
Some is reflected away by the atmosphere, some radiates back off the surface.
CO2 in the atmosphere reduces the amount of heat radiating back off the surface, thus increasing the amount of retained heat on the planet. The more CO2, the more is retained.
The added retained heat energy is dumped into the climatic system and disperses.
How that energy manifests itself is not really what's important. Obviously it will manifest itself in some way given that it can't be created or destroyed and has no other way off the planet than radiating back into space, which it can't do due to the CO2. So it stays. It does stuff because energy by nature does stuff.
To deny global warming / climate change, you would have to prove one of two things: Either that CO2 does not cause heat to be retained - hint: you can't prove this because the opposite is abundantly clear, proven and demonstrable. Or that the amount of heat retained will not have a significant impact. This is simply a matter of timing. Eventually it will. I've never seen a denier attempt to quantify and then desubstantiate the level of retained energy (mostly because none seem to even understand the importance).
I welcome you to try.
It's important to make the distinction between consensus onQuote from: "reel"whetherit is happening and whatis happening.
There is consensus that it is happening. There is not consensus on what precisely is happening. A lot of people are taking advantage of the latter to obfuscate the fact that it is happening and cherry pick arguments that have nothing to do with whether or not it is happening.
Anthropogenic global warming can't really be denied because the physics are pretty simple and they can be modeled, demonstrated in a lab, etc. For me that is enough to think we should change. The precise effects it will have on the planet is much more difficult to determine. Those can't realistically be modeled and they are difficult to measure. Did the heat go to melting ice? Heating the atmosphere? Heating the ocean? Shifting a current? Higher wind speeds? Higher humidity? Larger storms? All of the above in minor amounts? Who knows? It's a dynamic system. But why does it matter? The fact that it is happening should be worrying enough. Perhaps us not knowing should cause us even more consternation?
Is it an existential threat to humanity? Probably not. But it might be. Will it have wide reaching economic impacts? Possibly. Will it do something that impacts humanity? Almost certainly.
Quote from: "seoulbro"It's important to make the distinction between consensus onQuote from: "reel"whetherit is happening and whatis happening.
There is consensus that it is happening. There is not consensus on what precisely is happening. A lot of people are taking advantage of the latter to obfuscate the fact that it is happening and cherry pick arguments that have nothing to do with whether or not it is happening.
Anthropogenic global warming can't really be denied because the physics are pretty simple and they can be modeled, demonstrated in a lab, etc. For me that is enough to think we should change. The precise effects it will have on the planet is much more difficult to determine. Those can't realistically be modeled and they are difficult to measure. Did the heat go to melting ice? Heating the atmosphere? Heating the ocean? Shifting a current? Higher wind speeds? Higher humidity? Larger storms? All of the above in minor amounts? Who knows? It's a dynamic system. But why does it matter? The fact that it is happening should be worrying enough. Perhaps us not knowing should cause us even more consternation?
Is it an existential threat to humanity? Probably not. But it might be. Will it have wide reaching economic impacts? Possibly. Will it do something that impacts humanity? Almost certainly.
There also appears to be a consensus that global warming has entered a pause stage. Depends on who you ask?
Is it the biggest issue humanity is facing?Quote from: "RW"
Should we throw buckets of money at it?
I thought those were valid questions.
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