Money Sense

[Anonymous]

I also predict the US recession is coming sooner. The more the Fed increases rates, the deeper the recession.



Deutsche Bank now expects 'an earlier and somewhat more severe recession'



The first economist on Wall Street to predict a U.S. recession in 2023 is moving up his timeline for an economic contraction.



"More than two months ago we forecasted that the U.S. economy would tip into a recession by end-2023," Deutsche Bank Chief U.S. economist Matt Luzzetti wrote in a note to clients on Friday. "Since that time, the Fed has undertaken a more aggressive hiking path, financial conditions have tightened sharply and economic data are beginning to show clear signs of slowing. In response to these developments, we now expect an earlier and somewhat more severe recession."



Luzzetti now sees U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) growth coming in at "sub-1%" in the first half of 2023, followed by a -3.1% contraction in the third quarter of 2023 — one quarter earlier than Luzzetti previously estimated. In the fourth quarter of 2023, Luzzetti expects growth to contract by another -0.4%.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/deutsche-bank-recession-call-203128468.html">https://finance.yahoo.com/news/deutsche ... 28468.html">https://finance.yahoo.com/news/deutsche-bank-recession-call-203128468.html

We don't seem to be as close to recession as the USA, but we are on our way too.

[Anonymous]

A new survey released Friday by the Conference Board of CEO's found that more than 60% of CEOs globally expect a recession in their region before the end of 2023, with 15% of chief executives saying their region is already in recession.

[Anonymous]

That likelihood is something big changed in March.



The private economy that never really got going at any point over the past two years since 2020's unnecessary pandemic-panic contraction and then add an unhealthy dose of monetary disease in persistent and increasingly dire collateral shortfalls, it's a recipe for recession.

[Anonymous]

Te 24 per cent peak-to-trough decline (so far) in the S&P 500 — in just over five-months' time — is a historically rare event, and in the past has been a very reliable harbinger of recession.



In fact, since 1970, a 20-per-cent-plus draw down in the S&P 500 over a five-plus month time span has resulted in a recession 100 per cent of the time (five for five).

[Anonymous]

For all the talk about combating inflation, the Federal Reserve is likely to reverse course and continue to print substantial amounts of money because doing otherwise would threaten the federal government with insolvency, according to macroeconomic analyst Luke Gromen.



Fed chairman Jerome Powell has been talking about the central bank's aggressively raising interest rates in order to tighten the money supply, curb demand, and thus relieve inflationary pressure in the economy. Inflation hit a four-decade high of 8.6 percent in May. The Fed raised rates two weeks ago by 0.75 percent, the most in over 20 years.



It will only take a few more months, however, for the Fed to reverse course, Gromen predicted.



"I think they have to. I don't think they have a choice," he recently told Wealthion's Adam Taggart.



The problem is that higher interest rates mean that government will have to pay more interest on its debt, which now stands at over $30 trillion. Moreover, higher rates mean less credit and less economic activity. What is already becoming apparent is that higher mortgage rates mean fewer home sales and less construction. That means the government will start collecting substantially less in taxes, according to Gromen. Meanwhile, a contracting economy translates to higher welfare expenses as more people go to the government for relief.

[Anonymous]

Not all economists are predicting a recession. But, the number seems to be increasing and they believe it is coming sooner.



Recession coming in next year for Canada and the world, more economists warn

If there is a recession, we could be in for a bad one



Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers told Bloomberg TV that there's an increasing risk the recession he expects will start sooner, in 2022.



"The risks of a 2022 recession are significantly higher than I would have judged six or nine weeks ago," Summers told Bloomberg Television's "Wall Street Week" with David Westin. "If the economy did go into recession in the next six to nine months, then you'd probably see a reduction in inflationary pressures."



The Institute of International Finance, a global association for the financial industry, has been warning of the risks of a global recession for some time, but recently turned up the volume because of disturbing new data.



Weeks ago the IIF predicted that Russia's invasion of Ukraine and China's COVID lockdowns would cause global growth in 2022 to flatline.



"Since we made this forecast, however, it has been U.S. data that have surprised to the downside the most," IIF economists said in a note Thursday.



"The rapid slowdown in the U.S. pushes our global growth forecast from near zero into outright contraction."



Consumer confidence has tumbled as the U.S. housing market enters "deep recession" driven by the steepest rise in real mortgage rates since at least 2010, said IIF.



The risk of global recession has been compounded by weak data out of Europe. Factory orders in Germany have fallen to levels not seen since the 2008 financial crisis, aside from the sharp drop in 2020, while German consumer confidence has sunk below the levels of the initial COVID shock, "which is remarkably bad," they said.



The biggest question mark in the IIF forecast is China, where much depends on the spread of the omicron virus. But one thing is becoming clear, they said; unlike the first wave of COVID in 2020, the weakness in China's data in both manufacturing and services looks set to be drawn out.



"Whatever happens, China is unlikely to be a source of stimulus as global recession builds," said the IIF.



Analysts at Nomura Holdings Inc see major economies, including Canada, entering recession over the next 12 months, Bloomberg reports.



"Increasing signs that the world economy is entering a synchronized growth slowdown, meaning countries can no longer rely on a rebound in exports for growth, have also prompted us to forecast multiple recessions," they wrote.



There were signs last week that Canada's economy was losing momentum when Statistics Canada released a preliminary estimate that GDP contracted 0.2% in May. This weakness was partly from the temporary effects of oil and gas output that month, but the slowdown also reflects the impact of the decline in Canada's housing market, said Capital Economics' Stephen Brown.



Home sales fell 9% in May from the month before, shaving 0.1% off GDP, he said. "With the business surveys for June also showing a loss of broader momentum, the economy may be slowing even sooner than we anticipated," said Brown.



If there is a recession, Canada could be in for a bad one, says Nomura. Canada, Australia and South Korea face the risk of deeper downturns if rising interest rates trigger a housing bust,  analysts said.



For the U.S., they see a shallow but long recession of five quarters starting from the last quarter of this year, Bloomberg reports.

https://financialpost.com/executive/executive-summary/posthaste-recession-coming-in-for-canada-and-the-world-more-economists-warn">https://financialpost.com/executive/exe ... mists-warn">https://financialpost.com/executive/executive-summary/posthaste-recession-coming-in-for-canada-and-the-world-more-economists-warn

[Anonymous]

A recession is coming and it is going to be a shit storm.

[Anonymous]

Economists warn economic collapse is coming to Canada soon

https://tnc.news/2022/07/05/economic-collapse/?fbclid=IwAR3CzKcJXVWVvEt1J6_TjBVGZJLvT00rQ_IDz5xzMXyEPvNbRJ-rINRxyro">https://tnc.news/2022/07/05/economic-co ... J-rINRxyro">https://tnc.news/2022/07/05/economic-collapse/?fbclid=IwAR3CzKcJXVWVvEt1J6_TjBVGZJLvT00rQ_IDz5xzMXyEPvNbRJ-rINRxyro

Despite reassurances from the Trudeau government that the Canadian economy is on the road to recovery, economists are warning that a recession is coming to Canada.



A culmination of rising interest rates, rising inflation, Covid lockdowns in China, sanctions on Russian energy and a contracting US economy is all leading to a Canadian economy that is on the brink of recession.



Despite the best efforts from the Bank of Canada (BoC) to combat inflation by hiking up interest rates to bring down consumer demand, inflation has consistently risen, reaching 7.7% in June 2022.



As the BoC continues to hike rates, the sale of homes in May 2022 fell by 9%, contributing to a 0.1% contraction of GDP.



The effect of a slowing housing market is likely to take a bigger toll on the Canadian economy than on the American economy, as Canada is more than twice as much reliant on the housing market for economic growth compared to the US.



Macquarie Group economist David Doyle says that "When [Canada] has recessions, the lion's share of the weakness in gross domestic product tends to come from residential investment."



The housing market dragging Canada's GDP down could lead to a much more severe recession, causing unemployment to rise higher and the recession to drag on longer.



If a recession does not occur, a period of 'stagflation' could take hold.



Stagflation – characterized by a period of stagnant economic growth with high inflation – can take hold if the BoC fails to bring down inflation despite the interest rate hikes.



If the BoC succeeds in its effort to flatline economic growth but fails to bring down inflation, this would be characteristic of a period of stagflation.



China's policy of eliminating Covid-19 completely has driven the country into mass lockdowns, which is contributing to not only a Chinese economic contraction but is also stunting economic growth worldwide.



China is Canada's second-largest trading partner, and therefore supply chain issues occurring in China have ripple effects, especially concerning Canadian imports.



Chinese economist Si Ling said, "Major exporters to China could be impacted, which will slow the flow of global supply chains through China and drag down global economic growth."



The cost of living is not likely to improve for Canadians anytime soon.



The BoC will more than likely increase the interest rate by 75 points the next time the board meets, mirroring the US' FED interest rate increase.



Despite reassurances from Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland that the government is focused on "fiscal restraint," the Trudeau government continues to spend at an astronomical rate, causing the economy to overheat.



In June, a Scotiabank investors report decried the Trudeau government's lack of action in reducing government spending, forcing the BoC to hike interest rates. Scotiabank economists argue that the burden of lowering inflation is falling on the private sector as the federal government continues to spend at high levels.

[Anonymous]

Economists warn economic collapse is coming to Canada soon

https://tnc.news/2022/07/05/economic-collapse/?fbclid=IwAR3CzKcJXVWVvEt1J6_TjBVGZJLvT00rQ_IDz5xzMXyEPvNbRJ-rINRxyro">https://tnc.news/2022/07/05/economic-co ... J-rINRxyro">https://tnc.news/2022/07/05/economic-collapse/?fbclid=IwAR3CzKcJXVWVvEt1J6_TjBVGZJLvT00rQ_IDz5xzMXyEPvNbRJ-rINRxyro

Despite reassurances from the Trudeau government that the Canadian economy is on the road to recovery, economists are warning that a recession is coming to Canada.



A culmination of rising interest rates, rising inflation, Covid lockdowns in China, sanctions on Russian energy and a contracting US economy is all leading to a Canadian economy that is on the brink of recession.



Despite the best efforts from the Bank of Canada (BoC) to combat inflation by hiking up interest rates to bring down consumer demand, inflation has consistently risen, reaching 7.7% in June 2022.



As the BoC continues to hike rates, the sale of homes in May 2022 fell by 9%, contributing to a 0.1% contraction of GDP.



The effect of a slowing housing market is likely to take a bigger toll on the Canadian economy than on the American economy, as Canada is more than twice as much reliant on the housing market for economic growth compared to the US.



Macquarie Group economist David Doyle says that "When [Canada] has recessions, the lion's share of the weakness in gross domestic product tends to come from residential investment."



The housing market dragging Canada's GDP down could lead to a much more severe recession, causing unemployment to rise higher and the recession to drag on longer.



If a recession does not occur, a period of 'stagflation' could take hold.



Stagflation – characterized by a period of stagnant economic growth with high inflation – can take hold if the BoC fails to bring down inflation despite the interest rate hikes.



If the BoC succeeds in its effort to flatline economic growth but fails to bring down inflation, this would be characteristic of a period of stagflation.



China's policy of eliminating Covid-19 completely has driven the country into mass lockdowns, which is contributing to not only a Chinese economic contraction but is also stunting economic growth worldwide.



China is Canada's second-largest trading partner, and therefore supply chain issues occurring in China have ripple effects, especially concerning Canadian imports.



Chinese economist Si Ling said, "Major exporters to China could be impacted, which will slow the flow of global supply chains through China and drag down global economic growth."



The cost of living is not likely to improve for Canadians anytime soon.



The BoC will more than likely increase the interest rate by 75 points the next time the board meets, mirroring the US' FED interest rate increase.



Despite reassurances from Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland that the government is focused on "fiscal restraint," the Trudeau government continues to spend at an astronomical rate, causing the economy to overheat.



In June, a Scotiabank investors report decried the Trudeau government's lack of action in reducing government spending, forcing the BoC to hike interest rates. Scotiabank economists argue that the burden of lowering inflation is falling on the private sector as the federal government continues to spend at high levels.

A recession in Canada is looming. The US will get there first. The culprit will be bad policy decisions.

[weebles]

Looks like it is going to get rough in China with Evergrande defaulting and now people cannot get their money out from the banks and are being beaten for protesting and many being  hauled off to  "Covid Hotels" which I guess just a fancy term for what used to be called concertation camps.



It's pretty odd when the "Banks" aka the leaders of the CCP are allowed to rob their own customers/citizens.... I guess we all live in interesting times.

[Anonymous]

I aint watching those videos, but I know China is trouble.

[weebles]

I aint watching those videos, but I know China is trouble.

Yeah I got into the barrel wash then  I tend to go down a rabbit hole when I watch  documentaries anyways cheers Herm  ac_drinks

[Anonymous]

I aint watching those videos, but I know China is trouble.

Yeah I got into the barrel wash then  I tend to go down a rabbit hole when I watch  documentaries anyways cheers Herm  ac_drinks

To barrel wash. The cause and the solution to all of mankind's problems.



The Seoul brother is going to be pissed that we are fucking with his stickied thread.

[Anonymous]

Markets have resuming a bounce from last month's lows, as traders bet on strong corporate earnings reports and wagered that markets have found a bottom. Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday boosted by a late-afternoon rally and gains in heavyweight growth stocks, including Tesla.

[Anonymous]

Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. reported a lower profit despite higher revenue in its latest quarter.



The Calgary-based railway reported a net income of $765 million in its second quarter, down from $1.25 billion in the same period last year.



The company announced its quarterly dividend would be 19 cents per share for the quarter,  payable on Oct. 31.