Ontario will do just fine without the Liberals

[Anonymous]

I'm sure Ontario needed a change.



15 years of one party in power seems a tad too long.



And Wynn did seem a bit loony.



Should be interesting to see how long the Tories last.



But it'd be a mistake for them to think they can go back to the ways of Mike Harris.



Perhaps the Liberals went too far in one direction, but the Tories shouldn't think they can do it in reverse.

Wynn's legacy is Ontario having the highest sub sovereign debt in the world, hundreds of thousands of manufacturing jobs lost and people pushed into fuel poverty because green energy insanity.



And Mike Harris eliminated the annual deficit, even as he introduced corporate, capital-gains and personal tax cuts. Harris inherited an $11 billion deficit in 1995 and eliminated it in a few years. Now the Ford government inherited $11.4 billion in debt service charges alone, but will only freeze spending. This is no Harris government, but at least they are getting rid of Grit era green energy schemes, regulations and taxes  that will encourage people to invest again in Ontario.





Anyone who has studied the Ontario Liberal government's failed experiment with wind power knows what a financial and social catastrophe it has been.



How billions of taxpayers' and hydro customers' dollars are being wasted, and will continue to be wasted for decades to come, because of former Liberal premier Dalton McGuinty's naive blunder into wind energy, now fully supported by Premier Kathleen Wynne.



How it has contributed to skyrocketing hydro bills and to the loss of 300,000 manufacturing jobs in Ontario.

https://torontosun.com/2014/05/31/sun-news-network-documentary-down-wind-exposes-the-wynne-mcguinty-green-energy-disaster/wcm/b400c4c7-2bda-4864-b106-830474b3f515">https://torontosun.com/2014/05/31/sun-n ... 0474b3f515">https://torontosun.com/2014/05/31/sun-news-network-documentary-down-wind-exposes-the-wynne-mcguinty-green-energy-disaster/wcm/b400c4c7-2bda-4864-b106-830474b3f515

[JOE]

But Ontario's industrial decline didn't begin under Wynn.



It started after the introduction of the US Canada free trade agreement in the 1990s.



So it started under Premiers Pedersen, Bob Rae, continued under Harris and perhaps accelerated with Wynn.



Regardless of who's in power, Ontario's industrial engine needs a drastic overhaul.



I think the last PM Stephen Harper was offering massive incentives to keep American companies investing in Ontario but was having a difficult time preventing jobs from flowing South.



Ie - the Kellogg cereal plants and Caterpillar, right?

[Anonymous]

But Ontario's industrial decline didn't begin under Wynn.



It started after the introduction of the US Canada free trade agreement in the 1990s.



So it started under Premiers Pedersen, Bob Rae, continued under Harris and perhaps accelerated with Wynn.



Regardless of who's in power, Ontario's industrial engine needs a drastic overhaul.



I think the last PM Stephen Harper was offering massive incentives to keep American companies investing in Ontario but was having a difficult time preventing jobs from flowing South.



Ie - the Kellogg cereal plants and Caterpillar, right?

Ontario was already covered by the autopact, so free trade had little difference on our economy.



In the 1990s and into the 2000s, Ontario was a low-electricity-cost jurisdiction. This was a competitive advantage for the province, helping attract business and foster economic growth. Of course, in recent years, due largely to the Green Energy Act and its inefficiencies, Ontario electricity prices have soared, hurting industrial competitiveness, especially in the manufacturing sector where electricity is a major cost.



The results have been devastating.



Between 2005 and 2015, Ontario's manufacturing output fell by 18 per cent and manufacturing employment fell by 28 per cent.



More specifically, from 2008 to 2015, Ontario's manufacturing job levels fell from 805,170 to 688,735. Crucially, in a study published today by the Fraser Institute, we estimate that the province's high electricity prices are responsible for roughly 64 per cent of the losses — that's a staggering 75,000 manufacturing jobs.

https://business.financialpost.com/opinion/75000-manufacturing-jobs-lost-thats-the-price-of-ontarios-electricity-disaster">https://business.financialpost.com/opin ... y-disaster">https://business.financialpost.com/opinion/75000-manufacturing-jobs-lost-thats-the-price-of-ontarios-electricity-disaster

[JOE]

Well, regardless of whomever was in power, the steel industry sure took a hit in Ontario.



At least you should admit that much

But Ontario's industrial decline didn't begin under Wynn.



It started after the introduction of the US Canada free trade agreement in the 1990s.



So it started under Premiers Pedersen, Bob Rae, continued under Harris and perhaps accelerated with Wynn.



Regardless of who's in power, Ontario's industrial engine needs a drastic overhaul.



I think the last PM Stephen Harper was offering massive incentives to keep American companies investing in Ontario but was having a difficult time preventing jobs from flowing South.



Ie - the Kellogg cereal plants and Caterpillar, right?

Ontario was already covered by the autopact, so free trade had little difference on our economy.



In the 1990s and into the 2000s, Ontario was a low-electricity-cost jurisdiction. This was a competitive advantage for the province, helping attract business and foster economic growth. Of course, in recent years, due largely to the Green Energy Act and its inefficiencies, Ontario electricity prices have soared, hurting industrial competitiveness, especially in the manufacturing sector where electricity is a major cost.



The results have been devastating.



Between 2005 and 2015, Ontario's manufacturing output fell by 18 per cent and manufacturing employment fell by 28 per cent.



More specifically, from 2008 to 2015, Ontario's manufacturing job levels fell from 805,170 to 688,735. Crucially, in a study published today by the Fraser Institute, we estimate that the province's high electricity prices are responsible for roughly 64 per cent of the losses — that's a staggering 75,000 manufacturing jobs.

https://business.financialpost.com/opinion/75000-manufacturing-jobs-lost-thats-the-price-of-ontarios-electricity-disaster">https://business.financialpost.com/opin ... y-disaster">https://business.financialpost.com/opinion/75000-manufacturing-jobs-lost-thats-the-price-of-ontarios-electricity-disaster

[Anonymous]

Well, regardless of whomever was in power, the steel industry sure took a hit in Ontario.



At least you should admit that much

Indeed it has also been a victim of McGuinty/Wynn's green energy drive costs up madness.



Ontario now has the highest electricity costs across all Canadian provinces and among the highest costs in North America.



Ontario's manufacturing sector accounts for almost 40% of Canada's exports, so its decline is a matter of national concern. Between 2005 and 2015, Ontario's manufacturing output declined by 18% and employment by 28%. Notably, the paper manufacturing and iron and steel sectors, the two most electricity-intensive sectors in Ontario prior to the big price increases, shrank the most: the paper manufacturing sector by 32% and the iron and steel sector by 25%.

[JOE]

Well, regardless of whomever was in power, the steel industry sure took a hit in Ontario.



At least you should admit that much

Indeed it has also been a victim of McGuinty/Wynn's green energy drive costs up madness.



Ontario now has the highest electricity costs across all Canadian provinces and among the highest costs in North America.



Ontario's manufacturing sector accounts for almost 40% of Canada's exports, so its decline is a matter of national concern. Between 2005 and 2015, Ontario's manufacturing output declined by 18% and employment by 28%. Notably, the paper manufacturing and iron and steel sectors, the two most electricity-intensive sectors in Ontario prior to the big price increases, shrank the most: the paper manufacturing sector by 32% and the iron and steel sector by 25%.

[Anonymous]

One major flaw of the Ontaeio economy is its overdependance on the United States for its export market. Even sonewhat pro business right leaning MacLeans and the Globe and Mail have pointed this out.



While Ontario is something like 80 or 90% dependent on the US, BC and other prvinces have moved away from this model and are now 50% Asia exports. And since the US midwest is in a decline so is Ontario because they have similar rust belt economies.



Wasnt this a major reason ex PM Harper devised and wanted the CETA with Europe? So he could make places like Obtarip less dependent on the US?

As I told you already, our automotive sector has been integrated with it's American counterpart long before NAFTA. Cars and parts can travel back and forth across the border many times before becoming part of a finished car.



The auto sector and fuels account for 40 per cent of exports to the US. The state of Michigan has the largest trade deficit of any state with Canada and that is do to the Ontario auto sector. Now that has been declining because of high electricity costs in this province. Prior to the self inflicted wounds caused by deliberately making electricity expensive Ontario and BC were among the few provinces with growing exports to the US.



New Brunswick is the most reliant of any province on US exports.



And Maclean's is right leaning? What does that mean? They are opposed to same sex marriage or support a test for Canadian values?

[Chuck Bronson]

NAFTA closed our Zippo plant...    acc_angry

[Anonymous]

NAFTA closed our Zippo plant...    acc_angry

It closed long after NAFTA was implemented.  Sales were in decline for years.

[JOE]

Well, regardless of whomever was in power, the steel industry sure took a hit in Ontario.



At least you should admit that much

Indeed it has also been a victim of McGuinty/Wynn's green energy drive costs up madness.



Ontario now has the highest electricity costs across all Canadian provinces and among the highest costs in North America.



Ontario's manufacturing sector accounts for almost 40% of Canada's exports, so its decline is a matter of national concern. Between 2005 and 2015, Ontario's manufacturing output declined by 18% and employment by 28%. Notably, the paper manufacturing and iron and steel sectors, the two most electricity-intensive sectors in Ontario prior to the big price increases, shrank the most: the paper manufacturing sector by 32% and the iron and steel sector by 25%.

[Anonymous]

NAFTA closed our Zippo plant...    acc_angry

It closed long after NAFTA was implemented.  Sales were in decline for years.

Because fewer people smoke.

[Anonymous]

Regardless of his party affiliation, I sincerely hope Ford does better than his predessor did.



Canada can't really afford to have a weak Ontario, since it makes up close to 40% of Canada's population. And if they go down, then it drives things like the national debt up.



Ontario has to somehow find a way to reinvent itself.  I think Wynn and the Liberals tried, but evidently failed. Plus the new green economy they envisioned for the province hadnt been invented yet. I still think the old ways of relying excessively on the US and a branch plant economy are eventually doomed to fail.



Ontario has to look East to Europe and West towards Asia for new markets and to diversify itself.

Wynn didn't try to reinvent this great province, her and her predecessor tried to destroy it.



Whatever, you "think", the fact is Ontario's supply chain is interconnected with the Eastern US. That doesn't mean we can't seek new markets though. But, if we can't remain competitive with the Eastern US due to high electricity costs, high taxes and excessive regulations, we will never compete with new markets. The previous regime made us more dependent on the US by making us less competitive with the world.

[Anonymous]

Think Doug Ford is a fiscal hawk. Think again. He is a populist, but he won't slash the profligate spending he inherited from the Fiberals.



By Ben Eisen of the Fraser Institute



Last week, Finance Minister Vic Fedeli tabled Ontario's fall economic statement. this mini-budget was an opportunity for the Ford government to get serious about putting provincial finances on more sustainable footing.



Instead, on spending and deficits, the budget represents more of the same of what we have seen from Queen's Park under previous management.



Indeed, despite sharp rhetorical differences between party leaders on the campaign trail, the early evidence suggests the new government's fiscal strategy will largely reflect policy continuity from its predecessor.



The Ford government did lightly tap the brakes on spending growth, cancelling a number of election-year spending commitments made by its predecessor.



But these cancellations must be viewed in context. The Wynne government's 2018-19 budget called for provincial government program spending (all spending other than debt interest payments) to increase by 6.1 per cent this year.



In its mini-budget, the Ford government cancelled $3.2 billion worth of provincial spending growth planned for this year, largely by eliminating planned spending associated with the previous government's climate change plan.



Even with these cancellations, however, spending will still be up markedly this year. In fact, nominal program spending is still forecast to increase by 4.8% from 2017-18 levels.



This is a slightly lower rate of growth than the Wynne government had planned, but it's still slightly higher than what's needed to offset the combined effects of population growth and inflation (4.3%) and higher than the nominal rate of economic growth in the province (3.8%).



What's more, perhaps surprisingly, a 4.8% spending increase in the Ford government's first year is still faster than the rate of spending growth (on average) in the last three years of the Wynne government (4.4%). In short, [size=150]far from reforming and reducing spending, the Ford government in its first year is essentially maintaining the rate of spending growth that prevailed in the Wynne government's final years.[/size]



Unsurprisingly, this continued spending growth (relative to last year) means the deficit likely won't be going anywhere. Indeed, Ontario's deficit this year is projected at $14.5 billion — virtually identical to the pre-update status quo.



It's possible that when the spring budget rolls around the Ford government will change course and take meaningful steps to reform and reduce spending to quickly shrink the deficit. But rhetorical signals suggest not. Indeed, [size=150]last week's update explicitly says the government's approach to deficit-reduction will be "modest" and provides no indication of when it will commit to balancing the books.

[/size]

Thus, the mini-budget suggests, on deficits and spending, policy continuity will prevail. Remember, the Liberals also planned a very modest approach to deficit-reduction, based on trying to hold spending growth down (without ever cutting it) while hoping for revenue growth to close the gap for them.



This approach led to persistent deficits and rapid debt accumulation over the past decade. Its continuance will mean more of the same.



There's an old saying "if nothing changes, nothing changes." For the time being, the Ford government has not signalled a break with its predecessor's approach to spending and deficits. Until that changes, there's no reason to expect better results.