I suppose this wouldn't be a good time to admit that I went to a Gotye concert.






J/k.

Quote from: Erica Mena[12|Oct 12:18 AM]
That Gotye song is playing
I remember cunt used to rag on it lol
Many years ago

What makes you think I stopped? Misery-pop for depressed goth chicks and beta soyents to slash their wrists to. The Melbourne music scene has produced way better... some of which that unlike that Belgian wimp's example did not necessitate frequent stopovers at East Richmond to fellate coked up music promoters.

TRVTH. I mean really...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DkaUsBwe0fo


Shit makes me want to nuke Melbourne out of general principles. And you know I'm not alone in this; Gotye himself swore he wasn't going to release any more crap like this after he released it... come 2024 and the chocolate lollicock guzzling freak is at it again with... wait for it... a fucking remix of the very same song I imagined him to be stabbing himself in the eyeballs with a spork the first time he sang it some thirteen years back. What. In. The. Fucking. Fuck. Run out of new material did you fuckface? Gotye gotta crank out a rehash of the same drivel you poisoned the airwaves with because none of your side projects were cutting the mustard? Can't even pay Lab Flaker to fly on down and throat punch the prick; the little bugger will just go back to the multitracks, slap a new drum machine beat underneath it and get Spotify to pump it into people's playlists.

Fuxake, when did the Aussie music industry hand its balls over? And to who? Amyl and the Sniffers?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jCxgUPFVFkA


I'm not fucking impressed. Someone hand that Gotye gimp a knife and instructions on how to use it... something along the lines of "down the road, not cross the street"... and let nature take its course.

Kamala can't even answer questions...instead she giggle-snorts like the drunkest girl at a Spring break party and then throws a word salad against a wall. I saw the video where her teleprompter went out and she acted like she was stuck in a time loop and started repeating one of her random catchphrases again and again until they fixed it.

All the over hype, Swift endorsement, and marketing she got has crashed and you are left with a product resembling "New Coke"...and that shit was such a fail Coke had to apologize and bring back original coke.

What would she have done different during the Biden admin...her answer, nothing.  She appears less competent than Biden at this point.

Quote from: DKG on October 13, 2024, 10:31:29 AMNot so about Rasmussen. Like most pollsters they gave an advantage to the Dems in 2016 and 2020. Even a CNN poll recently showed there are are slightly more Dems for Trump than vice versa.

Sounds....legit. Using your exact same methodology, both assassination attempts on Donald Trump were the work of republican shooters. You're making the mistake of conflating bias with overt support; Rasmussen leans more right than CNN, MSNBC, Politico et al, therefore they can be said to be biased in favour of Republicans.

For what it's worth, I've seen polls out of Rasmussen during the 2020 cycle that purported Trump was going to crush Biden by the same kinds of margin he ended up losing to him by. I figured they were outliers; more on that later.

Quote from: DKG on October 13, 2024, 10:31:29 AMMost of the most recent polling shows a statistical tie in the battleground states. The aggregate is skewed because of a biased Bloomberg poll.

You would prefer to exert a bias in favour of what you interpret as unbiased polls? What methodology are you employing to that end I wonder? It's certainly not you personally getting on the blower and ringing every voter in the US to confirm actual figures or I'd have heard about it.

This is all talking cross purposes mind you; I already stated in my previous post that aggregates can be skewed (hint: they're aggregates) and that as such they could not be relied upon to provide figures that accurately reflected those in the individual polls that went in to making them up. What they can show is the trajectory of public opinion, since they not only average the biases between polling firms, but also of any outlier polls that might skew results a little in the short term, but ultimately be expressed as statistical noise over time.

Quote from: DKG on October 13, 2024, 10:31:29 AMThey will have a new poll early this week. I expect as usual it will give an edge to Harris in the swing states, but it will not be five percent.

Harris still maintains a less than two percent lead in the popular vote. I expect her to win the popular vote but by a slimmer margin than Hillary or Biden.

Popular vote doesn't mean shit for the US and you know it. The electoral college carries the day in the US, which is how it's possible for big cities like New York and Los Angeles to turn their liberal hordes on the ballot boxes at the expense of the rest of the country... and (unlike Canada) ...still lose the election.

Necessitating the need to cheat. Or fortify, depending on who you talk to. Which is why when you say...

Quote from: DKG on October 13, 2024, 10:31:29 AMWith the race this close in the battleground states there may not be a winner declared on election night.

...I say "swap the words 'may not' for 'will not' and we are in complete agreement." I don't know if you remember the graphs showing polling results over time in states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania last time around, but those "f-curves" that favoured Joe Biden required kicking observers out of the actual count. In one case the jump in Joe Biden's numbers happened at 4am... in conjunction with a truck showing up to make a delivery of a number of boxes to the venue.

This, I don't mind telling you, is suspicious as fuck. My own father was an election scrutineer for a time and none of this shit happened at any of the ballot counts he was present for. Then again none of those had f-curves in their counts either. I put it to you that if such events might have previously been expressed as the hallmarks of the failure of electoral integrity in tinhorn dictatorships (the others including things like the failure of electronic voting machines, the destruction of evidence for the purposes of prohibiting an audit after the fact and the arrest and persecution of anyone questioning the result) then to accept them as normal standard practice relegates the usefulness of opinion poll numbers (yes, even those expressed by Rasmussen) as well as any numbers the government holds up to profess as a "free and fair result" to around nil.

There are others who think differently of course, I imagine most of BF falls into that category. I doubt I need to tell you how numerous and popular they are, nor how determined they are to wait out the clock until they get the result they want. Or how they would kick you out on a whim, to do their thing unremarked and unchallenged before inviting you back in to resume your place under their boot. That's the mentality of the democratic party and believe it or not, more democrats are waking up to the noise that they're next.

As it stands now, I am confident that the election will NOT be announced on the night. Not because it's truly a "squeaker" but because just like in 2020 there will be people pulling every last trick in the book to keep Trump out. Even now I'm marking a rising panic among the left, the leftist media is going crazy in their attempts to get out the vote, Kackles is about to jet off on a whirlwind baby kissing tour and we will all be told to accept that it will drive her popularity up to at least between Beijing Biden's and the Hillary Monster's. In other words "copious quantities of bullshit".

They may yet have to light up the Middle East and Ukraine... invoke the war act and all. To save democramacy. Hell, why not? Nothing like a good old war to drive up your popularity in the polls, amirite?


I invite you to put aside your polls and do your own due diligence; peruse the total counts for those contested states

Not so about Rasmussen. Like most pollsters they gave an advantage to the Dems in 2016 and 2020. Even a CNN poll recently showed there are are slightly more Dems for Trump than vice versa.

Most of the most recent polling shows a statistical tie in the battleground states. The aggregate is skewed because of a biased Bloomberg poll. They will have a new poll early this week. I expect as usual it will give an edge to Harris in the swing states, but it will not be five percent.

Harris still maintains a less than two percent lead in the popular vote. I expect her to win the popular vote but by a slimmer margin than Hillary or Biden.

With the race this close in the battleground states there may not be a winner declared on election night.

Quote from: Oerdin[13|Oct 03:00 AM]
I love how Dems keep putting out "Republicans for Kamala Harris" ads but all the people featured in those ads are just Democrats. The fuckers can't even find a single person

Quote from: DKG[13|Oct 08:43 AM]
It is so misleading. I read a Rasmussen poll that showed there are slightly more Dems for Trump than GOP for Harris.

Unsurprising since Rasmussen's polling bias favours republicans in much the same was as CNN's polls favour the left. Pretty much every polling group has a bias which is why I tend to look at aggregate polling data from places like RealClearPolitics instead... and then only to determine the trajectory of public opinion rather than absolute figures. Aggregated polls are still capable of reflecting polling bias, as evidenced in the 2016 election which Donald Trump succeeded in taking, despite being more then three percentage points behind Hillary Clinton in the polling aggregate on election night.

The most recent aggregated polling data shows Trump trailing Harris by under two points and slowly closing that gap with only four weeks until election day. Four weeks out from the 2016 election he was trailing Clinton by almost six points, in 2020 he trailed Biden by ten. It's why the democrat hopefuls are currently dumping vast quantities of mushy brown stuff into their tighty whiteys at the moment. They believe that based on past polling data if the election were tomorrow, Donald Trump would in all likelihood win it. They are hoping against all hope that recent changes in polling methodology means they are still in with a chance and pulling every dirty trick in the book to try and make it stick.

I tend to think public opinion is weighted against the incumbent, that it is MAGA's election to lose. The last four years have been a sterling example of how NOT to run an economy, the results of which have hit not just the US but also the entire western sphere in the hip pocket. But I also know that as promising as I interpret the political landscape to be, becoming complacent even at this late stage is suicide. Hillary Clinton's recent comments suggesting that the left would lose control if it didn't exercise a tighter grip on the narrative tells me that they do know how precarious their position is and you can bet they are going to claw and kick and scream like banshees to hold on to it.

Dems for Trump versus GOP for Kamala will not determine the election. National opinion probably won't either, though it tends to be a more accurate metric than how many are prepared to cross the aisle and in which direction. This election is going to be fought (and viciously) in the battleground states with government departments (hi FEMA) attempting to knock as many GOP strongholds out of the picture as they can by election day.

Fight.

Quote from: reaps the honest[01|Oct 05:57 AM] Cunty am down with the covid again 3rd time. been doing what you suggested and am overdosing on vitamin d. And it seems to not as bad as last time.touch wood.

Noted and sorry to hear you're under the weather. Though it was vitamin C I suggested, not D. D should still help some of course, particularly if you're able to get out in the sunshine a bit, but C was what I was guzzling the most of, more recently I've been throwing Quercetin in the form of blueberries at the equation as well.

The whole idea is to not fight the infection directly, but to strengthen the environment against it. Pretty sure it was Louis Pateur that came up with the idea. Slamming your system with healthy foods is arguably better than supplements, my understanding is most of this stuff gets pissed out as quickly as you can get it into you, so I tend to throw everything I have at it until it's no longer a problem. Including nicotine which might seem counter-intuitive in light of what I've just said (it's a poison, duhh) until you remember that the average coronavirus likes to hang out in the bronchial passage. The two studies I've seen seemed to indicate smokers fared markedly better in terms of recovery time against Covid, though I'd suggest vaping the nic in preference to cigarettes, vapour is way less of an irritant than smoke will ever be.

Again, not a doctor... it's just what seems to work for me and I'm happy to hear you seem to be having some success with it too.