THeBlueCashew

QuoteQ Amid this interesting geopolitical shift, you devote a chapter to Alberta's possible secession.



A Canada's demographic situation is similar to the rest of the developed world — a large population moving toward retirement and hardly any young people in the replacement generation coming up.



However, Alberta does not fit that mould. It is the youngest province, and is becoming younger, better paid and more highly skilled as the rest of Canada becomes older and less skilled, and a ward of the state financially.



The other piece is, of course, energy. British Columbia has been hostile to Alberta's efforts to diversity oil exports and the Atlantic is more than 2,000 miles away.



But really, it comes down to demographics. Right now, every man, woman and child in Alberta pay $6,000 more into the national budget than they get back. Alberta is the only province that is a net contributor to that budget — by 2020, the number will exceed $20,000 per person, $40,000 per taxpayer. That will be the greatest wealth transfer in per capita terms in the Western world. The only other place we see things like that is in Saudi Arabia, where the oil-producing regions subsidize the rest of the country.



Q Secession has been a dirty political word in Alberta for several years, with politicians rumoured to be secret secessionists. That talk died down when the Harper Conservatives were elected —  when a group of people who came out of the Alberta mould assumed power.



A On Stephen Harper's watch, Alberta's tax bill has basically tripled. This is going on while you have a federal government that is pro-Alberta.



From my point of view, it doesn't matter if it's this government, the next government, or the one after. The demographic trends are locked in. If you get a government in Ottawa that isn't Conservative, isn't born, bred, raised and trained in Alberta, what do you think they're going to be doing to the tax policies?



Q So this is a conversation about secession to the U.S.?



A Alberta as an independent country doesn't solve a huge number of problems. If it left Canada, its currency goes through the roof because all it has is oil exports, and that would drive agriculture out of business. It would be a one-horse economy in a very short time.



Seceding to the U.S. becomes the only political and economic option. If you do that, the inflation issue goes away, the tax problem goes away, the security problem goes away. Alberta gets everything it says it wants out of Canada within the first year of joining the U.S.





Seceding to the U.S. becomes the only political and economic option



Q Do you think the Americans would have us?



A Americans have a reputation for being ignorant and short-sighted, but I would be stunned if there was a single person in Congress who would think this a bad idea. If you bring Alberta into the country, the U.S. becomes technically energy independent overnight. I would expect ratification of the expansion to sail through Congress in a matter of hours.



Q In Alberta, the numbers and logic might make sense, but politically and culturally it still seems to be a huge stretch to think Albertans would seriously consider this.



A I'm a forecaster. My job is to look at the trends of how the world works. Comfort makes people a little more passive and Canada is a comfortable place. Because secession is legal, Albertans are going to have to think about this  — that doesn't mean they will seriously consider it. But a $40,000 per taxpayer bill every year, that's a bit of a motivator.

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/news/national/leaving+Canada+makes+sense+Alberta+would+likely+welcome/10900926/story.html

Quote from: "Renee"I'll tell you what, we'll make a trade. We'll give you California and the city of Seattle for Alberta. And just to sweeten the deal, we will throw in Vermont for free. ac_biggrin



Deal?

Quote from: "Real Woman"I love the whining over contributing to a nation.



I think they should open the US doors freely to all Albertans but the land stays.  Let's see how fucking Yank happy you are then.

Quote from: "Real Woman"I love the whining over contributing to a nation.



I think they should open the US doors freely to all Albertans but the land stays.  Let's see how fucking Yank happy you are then.

Quote from: "Shen Li"Interesting Q&A with U.S. forecaster Peter Zeihan, a former geopolitical analyst with the security firm Stratfor.

QuoteQ Amid this interesting geopolitical shift, you devote a chapter to Alberta's possible secession.



A Canada's demographic situation is similar to the rest of the developed world — a large population moving toward retirement and hardly any young people in the replacement generation coming up.



However, Alberta does not fit that mould. It is the youngest province, and is becoming younger, better paid and more highly skilled as the rest of Canada becomes older and less skilled, and a ward of the state financially.



The other piece is, of course, energy. British Columbia has been hostile to Alberta's efforts to diversity oil exports and the Atlantic is more than 2,000 miles away.



But really, it comes down to demographics. Right now, every man, woman and child in Alberta pay $6,000 more into the national budget than they get back. Alberta is the only province that is a net contributor to that budget — by 2020, the number will exceed $20,000 per person, $40,000 per taxpayer. That will be the greatest wealth transfer in per capita terms in the Western world. The only other place we see things like that is in Saudi Arabia, where the oil-producing regions subsidize the rest of the country.



Q Secession has been a dirty political word in Alberta for several years, with politicians rumoured to be secret secessionists. That talk died down when the Harper Conservatives were elected —  when a group of people who came out of the Alberta mould assumed power.



A On Stephen Harper's watch, Alberta's tax bill has basically tripled. This is going on while you have a federal government that is pro-Alberta.



From my point of view, it doesn't matter if it's this government, the next government, or the one after. The demographic trends are locked in. If you get a government in Ottawa that isn't Conservative, isn't born, bred, raised and trained in Alberta, what do you think they're going to be doing to the tax policies?



Q So this is a conversation about secession to the U.S.?



A Alberta as an independent country doesn't solve a huge number of problems. If it left Canada, its currency goes through the roof because all it has is oil exports, and that would drive agriculture out of business. It would be a one-horse economy in a very short time.



Seceding to the U.S. becomes the only political and economic option. If you do that, the inflation issue goes away, the tax problem goes away, the security problem goes away. Alberta gets everything it says it wants out of Canada within the first year of joining the U.S.





Seceding to the U.S. becomes the only political and economic option



Q Do you think the Americans would have us?



A Americans have a reputation for being ignorant and short-sighted, but I would be stunned if there was a single person in Congress who would think this a bad idea. If you bring Alberta into the country, the U.S. becomes technically energy independent overnight. I would expect ratification of the expansion to sail through Congress in a matter of hours.



Q In Alberta, the numbers and logic might make sense, but politically and culturally it still seems to be a huge stretch to think Albertans would seriously consider this.



A I'm a forecaster. My job is to look at the trends of how the world works. Comfort makes people a little more passive and Canada is a comfortable place. Because secession is legal, Albertans are going to have to think about this  — that doesn't mean they will seriously consider it. But a $40,000 per taxpayer bill every year, that's a bit of a motivator.

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/news/national/leaving+Canada+makes+sense+Alberta+would+likely+welcome/10900926/story.html

Quote from: "Fashionista"
I am afraid if Alberta does become part of the USA that will be the end of Canada.

 ac_crying