COVID-19 >>"True and Helpful" Covid Information Thread

[Anonymous]

Some form of vaccine passport is inevitable if we're going to get international travel going again.

Canada will require proof of vaccination when entering the country..



No proof of vaccination means two week quarantine.

And a negative test taken within three days of boarding the plane to Canada.

We want to go to Panama in January of 2022. Getting a test going there will be easy. I don't know about in Panama returning to Winnipeg.

We want to go to the Netherlands for Christmas..



We have different vaccinations for our two doses.....I hope they accept it.

Sounds exciting.

[cc]

Finally some data on effectiveness against Delta Variant (Again, it's only one. More are needed to be sure what is happening)

However, this one describes its methods extensively as pdf shows.

It is totally different result than that Israeli one that gave no data on methodology & examines far more cases very scientifically



The new england journal of medicine



Effectiveness of Covid-19 Vaccines against the B.1.617.2 (Delta) Variant

Jamie Lopez Bernal, F.F.P.H., Ph.D., Nick Andrews, Ph.D.,

Charlotte Gower, D.Phil., Eileen Gallagher, Ph.D., Ruth Simmons, Ph.D.,

Simon Thelwall, Ph.D., Julia Stowe, Ph.D., Elise Tessier, M.Sc.,

Natalie Groves, M.Sc., Gavin Dabrera, M.B., B.S., F.F.P.H., Richard Myers, Ph.D.,

Colin N.J. Campbell, M.P.H., F.F.P.H., Gayatri Amirthalingam, M.F.P.H.,

Matt Edmunds, M.Sc., Maria Zambon, Ph.D., F.R.C.Path.,

Kevin E. Brown, M.R.C.P., F.R.C.Path., Susan Hopkins, F.R.C.P., F.F.P.H.,

Meera Chand, M.R.C.P., F.R.C.Path., and Mary Ramsay, M.B., B.S., F.F.P.H.



NOTE: "BNT162b2" is PHIZER ..... "2ChAdOx1 nCoV-19)" is AstraZeneca



BACKGROUND

The B.1.617.2 (delta) variant of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19), has contributed to a surge in cases in India and has now been detected across the globe, including a notable increase in cases in the United Kingdom. The effectiveness of the BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccines against this variant has been unclear.



METHODS

We used a test-negative case–control design to estimate the effectiveness of vaccination against symptomatic disease caused by the delta variant or the predominant strain (B.1.1.7, or alpha variant) over the period that the delta variant began

circulating. Variants were identified with the use of sequencing and on the basis

of the spike (S) gene status. Data on all symptomatic sequenced cases of Covid-19

in England were used to estimate the proportion of cases with either variant according to the patients' vaccination status.



RESULTS - SHORT FORM in Layman terms:(I shortened it to get to the meat of it)



Effectiveness after one dose of vaccine (BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1 nCoV-19) was notably lower among persons with the delta variant cthan among those with the alpha variant - (you can read pdf for detail as the way it was presented - I did not understand and could not decipher effectiveness)



 However, this was clear >

1. With the BNT162b2 vaccine, the effectiveness of two doses was 93.7% among persons with the alpha variant and 88.0% among those with the delta variant.

2. With the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine, the effectiveness of two doses was 74.5% (among persons with the alpha variant and 67.0% among those with the delta variant.



CONCLUSIONS

Only modest differences in vaccine effectiveness were noted with the delta variant as compared with the alpha variant after the receipt of two vaccine doses. Absolute differences in vaccine effectiveness were more marked after the receipt of the first dose.



This finding would support efforts to maximize vaccine uptake with two doses among vulnerable populations. (Funded by Public Health England.)



PDF FILE > https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMoa2108891?articleTools=true">https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NE ... Tools=true">https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMoa2108891?articleTools=true

[Anonymous]

Good one cc.

[cc]

Thanks I finally found one with considerable depth (red meat) to it - The linked pdf is long and details methodology

[Anonymous]

Thanks I finally found one with considerable depth (red meat) to it - The linked pdf is long and details methodology

Good work.

[cc]

According to it, one could say that for Pfizer, chances of being a breakthrough and contracting it (if in position to become infected) are in round rough numbers  ~1 in 20 against original and ~1 in 10 against Delta



While I have not seen Moderna data, I'd expect similar numbers



UK tested against what they most used

[cc]

Future variants pose unknown threat



 One unknown threat Canada faces is the possibility of more transmissible variants emerging in the weeks and months ahead that could be worse than delta, as COVID-19 continues to ravage undervaccinated countries around the world.



 Canada was hit hard by the alpha variant at a time when our vaccination campaign had not yet picked up steam, and new and more dangerous variants have repeatedly appeared in countries that continue to be hit hard with each passing wave.



 "Definitely we'll see other variants. If they will be more severe or a variant of concern is another question," said Kelvin. "But it is an interesting trend that ... there seems to be an increase in transmissibility with each as time goes on and we see new variants."



 That's not typically something that is seen with other circulating viruses like influenza, said Kelvin, meaning the unpredictability of this virus leaves its future an open question.



 Miller says COVID-19 will likely become endemic in Canada and around the world, returning each year like the flu, and our ability to control it is contingent on our ability to get more people vaccinated.



 "It's going to keep evolving for decades, presumably. It's not going anywhere. But we have astoundingly successful vaccines," he said. "The truth is, there is light at the end of the tunnel. This will end as all things end.



 "But if you're not vaccinated, you're definitely — at some point — going to get infected."



(I have no link - it was copy pasted from today's CBC email - CBC got a bit sloppy on this one .. but it is interesting and open-minded)

[Anonymous]

According to it, one could say that for Pfizer, chances of being a breakthrough and contracting it (if in position to become infected) are in round rough numbers  ~1 in 20 against original and ~1 in 10 against Delta



While I have not seen Moderna data, I'd expect similar numbers



UK tested against what they most used

Pretty good odds.

[Anonymous]

According to it, one could say that for Pfizer, chances of being a breakthrough and contracting it (if in position to become infected) are in round rough numbers  ~1 in 20 against original and ~1 in 10 against Delta



While I have not seen Moderna data, I'd expect similar numbers



UK tested against what they most used

Pretty good odds.

[Anonymous]

According to it, one could say that for Pfizer, chances of being a breakthrough and contracting it (if in position to become infected) are in round rough numbers  ~1 in 20 against original and ~1 in 10 against Delta



While I have not seen Moderna data, I'd expect similar numbers



UK tested against what they most used

This is reassuring compared to the Israeli link Seoul posted.

[cc]

Did you see initial post up above for details, methodology, credibility and exact numbers by UK Health Dept?



Yes. I felt something was amiss on that Israeli one  .. would like to see more data, but this UK one appears extremely thorough and creditable if you scan the pdf link



Been looking for more & solid data on "variant effect" this for a while as you know



Another UK note - While rising fast since opening up to over 55,000  4 days ago it turned downward  each of last 3 days to 32,000 today ... Still to early to be sure but at moment appears much better direction .. and weekends "can" be less accurate (that said, last Saturday was close to 55,0000)



It's death / case rate calculated over last 10 weeks & over last 5 weeks are both extremely low and getting better each day





Point of interest & relevant - they will reach 70% of adults fully vaccinated over this weekend & are pushing 90% for 1st dose

They are doing 1 million tests / day

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/">https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/





This is amazing and obviously tells the vaccine story - and UK used a lot of AZ with some Pfizer (not sure of how much of each)



UK CASES

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/downloads/homepage/2021-07-23/thumbnail_newCasesByPublishDate.svg">





UK DEATHS

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/downloads/homepage/2021-07-23/thumbnail_newDeaths28DaysByPublishDate.svg">





This past week cases  -13,439 (-4.5%) .. an encouraging sign

[Anonymous]

The city of St Louis has imposed a mask mandate. The people getting infected in the US are not getting infected because they aren't wearing masks. They are getting infected because they are not vaccinated.

[cc]

So silly. Trump put everything into getting vaccines fast, money, effort .. the companies he picked and pushed came through right on schedule ... full and successful stage 3 trials, got emergency order to use them



and many dolts won't use them = no getting back to normal



You are correct .. They are getting infected & keeping it all going ONLY because they won't get vaccinated.



We have some too. Not as many but they will keep it going here .. keep filling hospitals delaying operations .. keep others having to protect themselves in case they are one of the few it doesn't work for .. keep the economy down .. etc. etc.

[Anonymous]

Interesting stats you posted cc. I want to compare it to the Israeli one before commenting.

[cc]

The results are consistent with UK daily stats - Of the dozen or so places I track, UK is the most vaccinated and in fact it's mostly AZ which was always known to be less effective that the RNA ones ......



It's been amazing and comforting to watch the daily cases increase yet death per case rate has dropped from 2.28 % overall rate fall to to 0.14% when calculating over only the past 10 weeks ... and it keeps getting lower each week  .. by far  the lowest anywhere



The proof is in the puddin.



Israel is also quite low but I only started tracking it a short while ago so I can't do last 10 weeks separately yet .. but last 5 weeks is really good ... just not enough data to honestly compare with others