My husband will be giving out layoff papers this week

[Anonymous]

let me know when i can buy a house in calgary for $1 like it was in the early 90's...i'll be there in a hearbeat

My Daddy is hoping there is market crash here, so he can go on a buying spree. I on the other hand want to see my home value go up, not down.

It's all relative Shen.  Higher home value until you are ready to sell just means higher property taxes.

True, but an extra $1800/yr in property tax for three years vs. $100K in appreciation is well worth it. I am not interested in real estate as an investment myself, but I am explaining how my Daddy sees it.

[Obvious Li]

it is sounding more and more like this will be a long term deal..more likely years than months

No, I'm still sticking with the second half improvement theory. Think about it, the Saudis are using deliberate predatory pricing to take market share away from mainly Russia, USA and Canada. The King is near death and they are running huge deficits, so deliberate low prices are a short term move at best. On top of this, the USA and Canada alone are lowering capital spending and production lowering supply and sending prices back up. Goldman Sachs believes WTI will settle into a $60 to $80 range in the second half of the year.

my reason for thinking it will last a while are based on the fact that opec producers like nigeria, argentina, saudi etc, along with russia are now ramping up production even in the face of falling prices..they are broke and need the money and so must produce more and more even if they are getting paid less..this has never happened in any other down cycle....usually once prices drop, production drops, driving prices up again....coupled with that is the fact that a large number of USA shale oil producers are deep in debt and are still producing even if it is at a loss to pay their debts....this will continue until they cannot go on any longer...and that may take a couple of years...so all in all i think there will be a glut on the market of oil for some time to come

[Anonymous]

it is sounding more and more like this will be a long term deal..more likely years than months

No, I'm still sticking with the second half improvement theory. Think about it, the Saudis are using deliberate predatory pricing to take market share away from mainly Russia, USA and Canada. The King is near death and they are running huge deficits, so deliberate low prices are a short term move at best. On top of this, the USA and Canada alone are lowering capital spending and production lowering supply and sending prices back up. Goldman Sachs believes WTI will settle into a $60 to $80 range in the second half of the year.

my reason for thinking it will last a while are based on the fact that opec producers like nigeria, argentina, saudi etc, along with russia are now ramping up production even in the face of falling prices..they are broke and need the money and so must produce more and more even if they are getting paid less..this has never happened in any other down cycle....usually once prices drop, production drops, driving prices up again....coupled with that is the fact that a large number of USA shale oil producers are deep in debt and are still producing even if it is at a loss to pay their debts....this will continue until they cannot go on any longer...and that may take a couple of years...so all in all i think there will be a glut on the market of oil for some time to come

I did not know this Obvious Li..



It is unfortunate, but thank you again for letting us know.

[Anonymous]

my reason for thinking it will last a while are based on the fact that opec producers like nigeria, argentina, saudi etc, along with russia are now ramping up production even in the face of falling prices..they are broke and need the money and so must produce more and more even if they are getting paid less..this has never happened in any other down cycle....usually once prices drop, production drops, driving prices up again....coupled with that is the fact that a large number of USA shale oil producers are deep in debt and are still producing even if it is at a loss to pay their debts....this will continue until they cannot go on any longer...and that may take a couple of years...so all in all i think there will be a glut on the market of oil for some time to come

Nigeria, Venezuela and Russia feel the negative effects the most among all the major producers. Nigeria and Venezuela are also very high cost producers. They simply do not have the money the way the Saudis think they do keep up the over supply chicken game as economist Todd Hirsch of Alberta Treasury Branch calls it. You'll see, prices will bottom out and start rebounding in the second half.



On a separate note, low oil prices are very bad news for steel makers.

iting "softening market conditions influenced by oil," US Steel has issued lay-off warnings to 756 workers in the US... Layoffs will begin in early March as both Ohio and Texas plants will be idled.



Via Bloomberg,



*U.S. STEEL SAYS 756 WORKERS GOT WARN NOTICES

*U.S. STEEL SAYS 614 WORKERS AT LORAIN TUBE PLANT, OHIO

*U.S. STEEL SAYS 142 WORKERS AT TEXAS PLANT

*U.S. STEEL CITES SOFTENING MARKET CONDITIONS INFLEUCNED BY OIL

*U.S. STEEL SAYS LAYOFFS TO BEGIN EARLY MARCH

*U.S. STEEL SAYS BOTH PLANTS WILL BE TEMPORARILY IDLED

[Anonymous]

it gets even worse. There were fires at refineries in Ohio and Philadelphia very recently. They will both be shut down for a minimum of a week. What does that mean? Less demand for conventional oil while they bring those refineries back online increasing supply and putting more downward pressure on crude. Very bad news.

[Anonymous]

Two more people were laid off at my husband's shop today with more likely to come.

 ac_crying

[Anonymous]

Two more people were laid off at my husband's shop today with more likely to come.

 ac_crying

That sux. I know the conventional oilpatch is taking the brunt of the OPEC lead low price assault. We are less affected by temporary price slumps, but if it lasts and goes a lot lower, it could impact existing projects.



On the plus side, our facility exports our product to the USA. A low Canadian dollar is good when you pay expenses on a Canadian dollar and earn revenue in greenbacks.

[Anonymous]

Two more people were laid off at my husband's shop today with more likely to come.

 ac_crying

That sux. I know the conventional oilpatch is taking the brunt of the OPEC lead low price assault. We are less affected by temporary price slumps, but if it lasts and goes a lot lower, it could impact existing projects.



On the plus side, our facility exports our product to the USA. A low Canadian dollar is good when you pay expenses on a Canadian dollar and earn revenue in greenbacks.

My husband's company is connected to the activity of rigs though..



If they are not working then they do not need the services of my husband's company.

[Anonymous]

Two more people were laid off at my husband's shop today with more likely to come.

 ac_crying

That sux. I know the conventional oilpatch is taking the brunt of the OPEC lead low price assault. We are less affected by temporary price slumps, but if it lasts and goes a lot lower, it could impact existing projects.



On the plus side, our facility exports our product to the USA. A low Canadian dollar is good when you pay expenses on a Canadian dollar and earn revenue in greenbacks.

My husband's company is dependent on the activity of rigs though..



If they are not working then they do not need the services of my husband's company.