Somebody shot a hard load.
Fucking perverts.
It's the San Francisco area. What did you expect.
It's the San Francisco area. What did you expect.
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Forum gossip thread
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Helter-Skelter
Started by @realAzhyaAryola, August 08, 2015, 09:27:41 PM
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It's the San Francisco area. What did you expect.
Odinson
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Somebody shot a hard load.
Fucking perverts.
It's the San Francisco area. What did you expect.
Yes I suspect there are many perverts in California.
Anonymous
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Somebody shot a hard load.
Fucking perverts.
It's the San Francisco area. What did you expect.
Yes I suspect there are many perverts in California.
They invite them in from other states and countries.
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I have everthing set up for my visitors.....they should arriving start soon.
We didn't get many. Lots of chips and bars leftover.
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Inflation is still running high, and many still believe that it's a temporary post-pandemic phenomenon. However, structural changes taking place in the economy suggest that prices may not go back to normal anytime soon.
Some economists and investors have argued that excessive stimulus spending and money creation to fight the pandemic are the real culprits causing inflation. They claim that inflation is a product of policy decisions, rather than a coincidence.
Despite the loss of economic output and jobs, U.S. household wealth has surged by a staggering $32 trillion since the start of the pandemic thanks to unprecedented stimulus that boosted savings and asset values, such as stocks and home values.
The Fed's balance sheet has swelled by more than $4 trillion as a result of its quantitative easing program, which increased money supply in the economy and encouraged lending. Congress has also allocated about $5.3 trillion in relief to Americans. All of these actions boosted aggregate demand and consumer spending when the economy reopened.
"The result is, you have more money chasing less stuff, and prices are soaring across the board," Euro Pacific Capital CEO and global strategist Peter Schiff said during the New Orleans Investment Conference in October. "There's no limit to how much money the Federal Reserve can print. But there is a limit to how much actual stuff the economy is capable of producing."
While the monthly pace of inflation has slowed in recent months, the year-over-year increase in consumer prices remains stubbornly high at 5.4 percent. Core inflation, which omits changes in more volatile food and energy prices, also rose by 4 percent in September from a year prior, the largest jump in nearly 30 years.
Some of the biggest names in the investment world, including Carl Icahn, Paul Tudor Jones, and David Einhorn, have recently sounded the alarm on persistent price pressures.
"In the long run, we are certainly going to hit the wall" because of money printing, Icahn told CNBC on Oct. 18.
Investors are concerned that the Fed is still behind the curve in reacting to inflation. They fear that the Fed could step on the brake abruptly in the future, plunging the economy into a recession.
"The longer you wait to do something about inflation, the worse it gets," Schiff said.
A growing federal debt limits a government's ability to fight inflation. Policymakers are choosing to remain behind the curve as higher interest rates mean that the U.S. government will shoulder a heavier interest burden.
The central bankers are in a tight corner, according to Danielle DiMartino Booth, a veteran of the Dallas Fed and author of the book "Fed Up."
On Christmas Eve 2018, the U.S. stock market suffered one of its steepest declines in decades, and that "exemplified how very difficult and reticent the markets are about having their liquidity taken away," Booth said.
It will be difficult for the markets and the economy to handle declining liquidity, especially when the economy starts slowing, she said.
Oil Shocks
The recent surge in energy, commodity, and food prices has stoked inflation fears, causing many to speculate that we could return to the 1970s, when inflation got out of control.
There were two major oil shocks in the 1970s—triggered by the Arab–Israeli War of 1973 and the Iranian Revolution of 1979—which caused large reductions in the supply of energy. Inflation was already running high during that time, but the twin oil crises pushed U.S. inflation into the double digits. The oil crisis produced many lessons for the United States, one of which is putting more emphasis on reducing foreign oil dependence.
Deutsche Bank analyst Henry Allen said the recent surge in gas prices is "reminiscent of what happened with oil in the early 1970s."
"As the globe tries to further wean itself off fossil fuels, we could have more energy shocks over the course of this decade," Allen said in a recent report.
According to Moody's rating agency, oil exploration and production companies need to invest $542 billion worldwide to avert the next global supply shock.
Similarly, metal prices have surged significantly compared to 2020. High energy costs are prompting smelters to cut back on the production of zinc and aluminum globally.
Awash in cash, many oil, metal, and mining companies have been buying back shares or paying dividends, instead of expanding capital expenditures to tackle supply shortages.
The latest surge in coronavirus infections, especially in Southeast Asian countries, has also led to closures of plants and ports, augmenting supply disruptions in semiconductor chips and other raw materials.
Speaking at a Yahoo Finance summit on Oct. 25, Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger said that "the chip shortage is at its worst right now."
He expected shortages to persist into 2023, as it takes time for companies to build manufacturing capacity. Automakers have been hit especially hard from this chip supply shock, causing car inventories to go down. Used car prices, one of the largest drivers of inflation in 2021, soared by 24 percent in September from a year ago. New vehicle prices were also up by 9 percent.