Simon Fraser University 'study' on TMX is 100% poppycock

[Anonymous]

It would only lose money, if it was empty. They have shippers line up.



Independent estimates conclude oil producer revenues will increase by $73.5 billion over 20 years of operations and Canada will earn $46.7 billion in additional taxes and royalties to federal and provincial governments.



Trans Mountain pipeline expansion will lead to $11.9B in losses for Canada, study says

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-trans-mountain-losses-sfu-study-1.5970802">https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british- ... -1.5970802">https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-trans-mountain-losses-sfu-study-1.5970802

[Anonymous]

It would only lose money, if it was empty. They have shippers line up.



Independent estimates conclude oil producer revenues will increase by $73.5 billion over 20 years of operations and Canada will earn $46.7 billion in additional taxes and royalties to federal and provincial governments.



Trans Mountain pipeline expansion will lead to $11.9B in losses for Canada, study says

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-trans-mountain-losses-sfu-study-1.5970802">https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british- ... -1.5970802">https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-trans-mountain-losses-sfu-study-1.5970802

Private industry wouldn't sign deals to use it if it was a losing investment.

[cc]

Exactly. That's the key difference between between Govts & U's vs. Business



If something is not profitable, business bows out ... If it's profitable it dives in

[Anonymous]

It would only lose money, if it was empty. They have shippers line up.



Independent estimates conclude oil producer revenues will increase by $73.5 billion over 20 years of operations and Canada will earn $46.7 billion in additional taxes and royalties to federal and provincial governments.



Trans Mountain pipeline expansion will lead to $11.9B in losses for Canada, study says

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-trans-mountain-losses-sfu-study-1.5970802">https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british- ... -1.5970802">https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-trans-mountain-losses-sfu-study-1.5970802

Even the the CBC had to admit some(all) experts question this study.

[Anonymous]

It would only lose money, if it was empty. They have shippers line up.



Independent estimates conclude oil producer revenues will increase by $73.5 billion over 20 years of operations and Canada will earn $46.7 billion in additional taxes and royalties to federal and provincial governments.



Trans Mountain pipeline expansion will lead to $11.9B in losses for Canada, study says

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-trans-mountain-losses-sfu-study-1.5970802">https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british- ... -1.5970802">https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-trans-mountain-losses-sfu-study-1.5970802

Not to mention all the tax revenue from the people who will earn a decent paycheque building it.

[Anonymous]

It would only lose money, if it was empty. They have shippers line up.



Independent estimates conclude oil producer revenues will increase by $73.5 billion over 20 years of operations and Canada will earn $46.7 billion in additional taxes and royalties to federal and provincial governments.



Trans Mountain pipeline expansion will lead to $11.9B in losses for Canada, study says

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-trans-mountain-losses-sfu-study-1.5970802">https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british- ... -1.5970802">https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-trans-mountain-losses-sfu-study-1.5970802

Students and faculty are opposed to pipelines period. They arrived at their conclusion first and then came their horseshit study.

[Anonymous]

SFU is full of shit.

https://scontent.fyxd1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.6435-9/162084797_502580624482648_4252441335520226175_n.jpg?_nc_cat=105&ccb=1-3&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=BNDyo2dN_qkAX9yIykg&_nc_ht=scontent.fyxd1-1.fna&oh=2e83ba1e3a71d96869cb5317418db5ca&oe=608C5C47">

[Anonymous]

Of course it's flawed.



A Matter of Fact: Simon Fraser University study uses flawed assumptions to denounce benefits of Trans Mountain Expansion

https://www.canadianenergycentre.ca/a-matter-of-fact-simon-fraser-university-study-uses-flawed-assumptions-to-denounce-benefits-of-trans-mountain-expansion/?fbclid=IwAR38kicHRWpiWT3yqNb8DaOz0DRjVh1ZrA0g27Xk61acCSN9HGrIp2_YN78">https://www.canadianenergycentre.ca/a-m ... GrIp2_YN78">https://www.canadianenergycentre.ca/a-matter-of-fact-simon-fraser-university-study-uses-flawed-assumptions-to-denounce-benefits-of-trans-mountain-expansion/?fbclid=IwAR38kicHRWpiWT3yqNb8DaOz0DRjVh1ZrA0g27Xk61acCSN9HGrIp2_YN78



A new study by Simon Fraser University (SFU) uses flawed assumptions about energy markets both at home and around the world to conclude that the Trans Mountain Expansion Project will not benefit Canada.



The authors' main argument is that there have been "significant changes" since the National Energy Board (Now Canada Energy Regulator) originally recommended the project's approval in 2016. This includes "significantly weaker oil markets due to COVID-19," the advancement of alternative pipelines, and Canada's new climate change policies.



But they are wrong – market fundamentals continue to support the Trans Mountain Expansion.



Fact: The impact of COVID-19 on global oil demand is already being reversed



According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), as of February 2021 global oil demand recovered to 94 per cent of its level pre-COVID, or 95.89 million barrels per day. The EIA forecasts that oil demand will reach 98 per cent of pre-COVID levels by the end of 2021, rising to exceed pre-pandemic levels by December 2022.



COVID has in fact shown how integral oil is to power the world, according to Joseph McMonigle, secretary general of the International Energy Forum.



"Certainly the impact to demand was profound and unprecedented, the biggest demand shock in history, but it is important to note that 90 per cent of demand remained intact, demonstrating oil's resiliency and necessity to fuel the world economy," McMonigle said during a February joint virtual session with OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA).



Even during the pandemic, the existing Trans Mountain Pipeline has been running at full capacity to meet customer demand. The system has been overbooked on a regular basis for the last decade, including all 12 months of 2020 and the first three months of 2021 so far.



The expansion project has binding 15- to 20-year commercial agreements in place with shippers that remain committed to utilizing up to 80 per cent of the pipeline's capacity.



Fact: Canada's climate change policies do not reduce growing global oil demand



Global oil demand is forecast to continue rising in the next decades, driven by growth in India, Asia, and Africa. The policies that Canada puts in place to manage its own greenhouse gas emissions will not change this trajectory. Nor will they have much impact on global climate change, given that Canada produces just 1.5 per cent of the world's GHG emissions, according to the World Resources Institute.



The IEA forecasts that global oil demand will rise to 104.1 million barrels per day in 2040, from 97.9 million barrels per day in 2019, despite an increasing role for renewable energy sources.



Fact: 'Alternative' projects to TMX continue to tie Canada to the U.S. as its only customer



The SFU study claims that the economic viability of TMX has been adversely impacted by the advancement of 1.64 million barrels per day of 'alternative' pipeline projects.



One, this figure is off by 590,000 barrels per day because the SFU researchers oddly include the capacity on TMX as an "alternative" to TMX. The authors also cite 550,000 barrels per day of "other Enbridge expansions," but this is actually a handful of smaller projects that the company considers to be an "optionality," meaning that they will only be brought online as needed to match demand growth.



Aside from the strange inclusion of TMX itself, all the pipeline projects SFU calls "alternative" to TMX are connections to U.S. markets, where Canada sends 98 per cent of its oil exports. A main goal of TMX is to break the landlock on Canadian oil, enabling producers to choose where to send sales volumes based on the most competitive buyer at the time.



Fact: TMX makes Canadian oil a more attractive investment, improving prospects for all Canadian pipelines



The SFU study claims that TMX is not required and will result in unused capacity on Canada's overall pipeline system. This is based on forecasts that are coloured by the experience of recent years, where oil sands capital spending has decreased dramatically because without new pipeline capacity, producers have for the most part been without an outlet for growth.



The reality is that there is substantial opportunity for cost-competitive oil sands growth, and keeping Canada's pipelines full following completion of TMX is unlikely to be a challenge. Consider that right now, oil sands producers have regulatory approval in hand for approximately 2.7 million barrels per day of additional capacity, according to Daily Oil Bulletin records.



With the right market conditions, Canadian oil producers are ready to grow. Prior to COVID, with the positive momentum on pipelines, in January 2020 the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers forecast its expectations for the first annual increase in oil sands capital spending in five years.



Fact: The existing Trans Mountain system has operated for nearly seven decades without a single spill from marine tanker operations



SFU's conclusions about the cost of TMX to the Canadian public include the assumption that there is 43 to 75 per cent probability that there will be a marine tanker spill over the life of TMX operations. But in real world experience, there has not been a single spill from marine tanker operations since Trans Mountain started operating in October 1953.



The expansion also comes with the largest-ever expansion of spill response personnel and equipment on BC's south coast, through Trans Mountain's $150-million investment in Western Canada Marine Response Corporation.



The funding will double its current spill response fleet to 88 vessels, create eight new spill-response bases, and add 120 employees, improving safety for industrial shippers as well as residential, commercial, and other users.

[Thiel]

I am certain that when TMX is completed, it will be flowing with oil everyday.

[Anonymous]

https://scontent.fyxd1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.6435-9/167123146_513093266764717_5746102562181747364_n.jpg?_nc_cat=103&ccb=1-3&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=Ic2QtfpmafMAX-hnRNU&_nc_ht=scontent.fyxd1-1.fna&oh=c4adf155b1fbe9b40f07078fe3b9593c&oe=608D801A">

[Anonymous]

By Lorne Gunter of Sun News Media



ECO-FANTASY WORLD

'Green' alternatives to fossil fuels seldom deliver on their promises



Two reports this week highlight the fantasy world most "green" experts and politicians operate in.



One, from a group of environmental researchers at B.C.'s Simon Fraser University, claims the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline no longer makes economic sense.



Meanwhile, the other report, from the federal Natural Resources department, admits most "green" energy projects cannot survive without substantial taxpayer subsidies. Most will never generate enough sales at high enough prices to pay for their own existence.



The crazy part of the federal report is the auditors who prepared it claim this is the result of "market failure."



Talk about getting it upside-down and backwards.



It is the bureaucrats' belief that "green" energy programs don't fail because they make no financial sense (which is clearly the case), they fail because for-profit companies lack the foresight to believe in alternate energy sources.



If environmentalism were a religion (which it nearly is for many), this would be what is called "millenarianism," the conviction that if one simply believes passionately enough, that fundamentalism alone will produce a heaven on earth.



But the fact that "green" projects mostly make no financial sense is why taxpayers have to fork over billions and billions of dollars to get wind, solar, biomass and other eco-friendly power projects up and running. And keep them running. Most such save-the-planet projects don't survive once their funding dries up, either.



In Ottawa, though, this is seen somehow as a failure of the market system, not proof that alternate energy isn't viable.



As former Environment Minister Catherine McKenna explained while defending the mammoth subsidies in 2018, government must act because private companies refuse to see the need "to take action to ensure our children and grandchildren live in a world where our environment is clean."



It's one thing to tax away tens of billions from ordinary Canadians to pay for eco-fantasy energy projects that will never work. It is thinking from another universe altogether to blame this on "market failure."



The Simon Fraser Study isn't much better.



It basically says [size=150]the TMX isn't needed because the oil industry isn't growing as rapidly as it once did.[/size]



However,[size=150] nowhere do the authors acknowledge that the oil industry is suffering in large part because Canada has insufficient pipeline capacity (and has an anti-oil federal government). [/size]If oil companies can't ship it, why would they pump it?



The Simon Fraser researchers are right that the economic case for TMX has suffered because the estimated cost of building the line has gone from $5.4 billion to $12.6 billion.



But Canadians should remember TMX is now owned by the same federal government that cannot explain what has happen to at least half of its $188 billion in infrastructure spending.



The SFU researchers also, fallaciously, believe oil consumption will plummet now that Ottawa has adopted a carbon tax, so the TMX will run empty a lot by 2025. But there is little evidence from countries with carbon taxes that they do much to drive down oil demand.



[size=150]Most "green" energy projects come nowhere near to producing the new jobs, profits or environmental benefits promised.[/size]



In 2018, when the province of Ontario had run a "green" energy subsidy program for a decade that had cost over $50 billion and more than doubled electricity bills, that province's auditor general found there had been no net reduction in emissions and only 12,000 jobs created, versus the 75,000 projected.



The high price of electricity also contributed to the loss of 200,000 manufacturing jobs.



The point is "green" alternatives to fossil fuels are a fantasy. And that fact can't be changed just because activists and politicians believe with all their hearts.