Mass Immigration is Driving Inflation in Canada

[Herman]

What the hell did Trudeau expect would happen when we add the equivalant of a Saskatchewan in one year. Demand for everthing rises, but especially housing and pushing up interest rates.



How immigration could be impacting the Bank of Canada's efforts to bring down inflation

Influx of newcomers could be adding to factors keeping governor Tiff Macklem up at night, one economist says

https://financialpost.com/news/economy/immigration-impact-bank-of-canada-inflation#:~:text=An%20increase%20in%20immigration%20could%20be%20one%20complicating,are%20a%20part%20of%20that%20story%2C%E2%80%9D%20she%20said">https://financialpost.com/news/economy/ ... she%20said">https://financialpost.com/news/economy/immigration-impact-bank-of-canada-inflation#:~:text=An%20increase%20in%20immigration%20could%20be%20one%20complicating,are%20a%20part%20of%20that%20story%2C%E2%80%9D%20she%20said.



Demand created from a record influx of immigrants could be one factor keeping inflation higher for longer than anticipated, some economists say, though Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem doesn't appear overly worried about it.



Sticky inflation prompted the Bank of Canada on July 12 to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to five per cent — the highest level since 2001. Though the inflation rate has fallen off its peak of 8.1 per cent last summer to 3.4 per cent in May, prices of more than half the goods in the consumer price index, such as meat, bread, coffee and rent, continue to rise, Macklem said in a press conference following the decision.



An increase in immigration could be one complicating factor keeping inflation higher for longer and stoking demand, Bank of Nova Scotia economist Rebekah Young said.



"There is more risk that inflation may be sticky in months and quarters ahead, versus it coming down faster than we thought and newcomers are a part of that story," she said. "They are certainly adding to what could be keeping (Macklem) up at night."



Canada welcomed more than one million immigrants in the past year as the federal government sought to address high job vacancies and labour shortages. Young said the country has traditionally used population growth through immigration as a means to increase workers and enhance supply, especially as "massive surges" of inflation haven't been something policymakers have worried about for decades. But things have gotten more complicated.



He said that while newcomers filling job vacancies has been good for company margins, easing inflationary pressures, new entrants are also increasing demand for housing, helping boost rent and home prices. It's "hard to know exactly" the net effect on the economy, he added, but the main message is that immigration is adding to both demand and supply.



"If you start an economy with excess demand (and) you add both demand and supply, you are still in excess demand," Macklem said. "What we're seeing is that the excess demand in the economy is more persistent than we thought and so we've raised rates in June and July."



Douglas Porter, chief economist at the Bank of Montreal, said he agrees with Macklem's assertion that high immigration adds to both demand and supply. But there's another element the governor "didn't talk about much," he said, and that's a matter of timing.

[Oerdin]

Everything from food to housing to energy goes up with mass immigration.

[Thiel]

Our annual immigration levels have gone up about five hundred percent in the last fifteen years.

[Melson Gibson]

Highest immigration levels of any G7 nation.  



If people are so blind that they cannot see the cracks forming from this insane experiment, they get what they fucking deserve when it collapses.

[Thiel]

Highest immigration levels of any G7 nation.  



If people are so blind that they cannot see the cracks forming from this insane experiment, they get what they fucking deserve when it collapses.

I wonder what the long term game plan is if the Liberals even have one. Is it two million immigrants per year and population of one hundred million? The rapid increase in population would make net zero a fantasy if it wasn't already a fantasy.

[Melson Gibson]

I wonder what the long term game plan is if the Liberals even have one. Is it two million immigrants per year and population of one hundred million? The rapid increase in population would make net zero a fantasy if it wasn't already a fantasy.

Last year was 1.2 million, this year we're gearing up for 1.5.  (Literally double the pop of Vancouver proper, every single year).



They are certainly aiming for the Century Initiative, which is 100 million by 2100.



And it's not just the Liberals...  ALL Canadian political parties are on board with this goal, sans the PPC.



We are a Ponzi Scheme joke nation now, which is too bad...  since we had most of the advantages of the US, without many of their problems.  And we're letting it all slip away.



At this rate, we'll be the first to fall.

[JOE]

Highest immigration levels of any G7 nation.  



If people are so blind that they cannot see the cracks forming from this insane experiment, they get what they fucking deserve when it collapses.

You can have an immigration system that works.



however I tend to agree. They're letting too many in recently.



If there are no decent paying jobs or affordable housing to accommodate them, then Canada should turn the tap off for a while.



I agree that we need more immigrants to create a tax base that will pay for pensions and social programs, but at the same time it can;t be runaway unsustainable population growth.

[Herman]

This was wrriten tax specialist Jack Mintz for the National Post.

Take immigration first. In the past year, the Liberals brought in more than a million permanent and temporary workers — a 2.7-per cent increase in Canada's population. The surge in the working population — 238,000 in the second quarter of this year alone — is almost triple the average of the past 40 years. Canadians overwhelmingly support immigration, but for most of us this is likely to be a stretch too far. As an August National Bank of Canada study shows, housing starts are currently only a quarter of population growth, compared to the historical average of 61 per cent.

Even the prime minister's wishful thinking that immigrants build homes won't close the gap, not unless most immigrants are homebuilders. Instead, we can expect accelerating housing prices and rents, especially in Toronto and Vancouver, where many immigrants settle. And, with today's higher mortgage rates, housing starts are unlikely to take off, even with the extra demands for accommodation.

It isn't just housing affordability that's at stake. Our stressed health care system, already overwhelmed, can't handle a deluge of new patients. Roads and highways will choke unless new transportation is built — though not light rail of the kind that has been such a disaster in Ottawa. Provinces will need to pour more money into schools as student populations grow. Given our weak private investment, we won't be able to provide well-paying jobs to accommodate all the new workers, which means wages will likely drop instead.

Historically, population growth is a good thing for a big and still empty country. But its pace needs to be controlled. Otherwise, not only will immigrants suffer from a lack of housing, healthcare, infrastructure and jobs but so will many Canadians who are already here.

[Thiel]

The Department of Homeland Security is deliberately not disclosing the number of illegal immigrants who are released into the United States each month.

[DKG]

When Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberals came to power in 2015, Canada accepted 352,325 international students.

This year, according to Immigration Minister Marc Miller, the number will be about 900,000.

Miller told CBC's The House on Saturday this isn't just contributing to Canada's affordable housing crisis, but also creating problems with "the integrity of the system, that has mushroomed, ballooned in the past couple of years."

Now add the fact that when the Liberals came to power in 2015, 271,845 immigrants became permanent residents of Canada.

The Trudeau government's plan is to boost that number to 465,000 this year, 485,000 in 2024 and to 500,000 in 2025.

Three Canadian banks have warned the federal government's policy is misguided.

TD Bank said "continuing with a high-growth immigration strategy could widen the housing shortfall by about a half-million units within just two years."

National Bank of Canada said "the federal government's decision to open the immigration floodgates during the most aggressive monetary tightening cycle in a generation has created a record imbalance between housing and demand."

BMO said "heightened immigration flows designed to ease labour supply pressure immediately add to the housing demand they are trying to meet."

The Trudeau government says it's wrong to blame international students — on whom it may be considering a cap on admissions — and immigrants for Canada's housing crisis.

Of course they're not to blame.


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The government is to blame for increasing their numbers so rapidly, with no coherent plan to house them, consistent with Trudeau's view that "housing isn't a primary federal responsibility. It's not something that we have direct carriage of."

To be fair, provincial and municipal governments share responsibility for housing with the federal government, which also says we need high immigration levels because of our low domestic birth rate to bolster the economy, including having sufficient workers to build homes.

But what's also true is that issues the federal government has direct carriage of — immigration and international students — are contributing to Canada's affordable housing crisis.
https://torontosun.com/opinion/editorials/editorial-federal-policies-made-housing-crisis-inevitable

Immigration is a boon to Canada. But sustainability is the key to making it work. Simply trying to get as many people in as fast as the government can with no consideration for infratructure, housing, schools, and health care is extremely irresponsible.

[DKG]

Trudeau knows his reckless immigration targets are behind the housing crisis in Canada.

[Herman]

Trudeau knows his reckless immigration targets are behind the housing crisis in Canada.

He is responsible for this country's housing shortage. He is responsible for inflation too with his two carbon taxes.