Economics Prof; Almost No Chance The Alberta NDP Gov Will Meet Its Revenue Targets

[Anonymous]

Big surprise, Nothead's plan to tackle Alberta's spending problem with more spending will not work.



BTW, the new energy minister is a political rookie with zero experience in the resource sector. She was a former K-12 teacher. We are in good hands. ac_rollseyes  ac_toofunny

Taking all the numbers together, what is the bottom-line impact for the new Alberta NDP government? For 2015-16, the analysis presented here suggests almost no chance the Alberta government will meet its revenue targets. It will simply be too hard to make changes quickly enough.



Left out of the analysis here is the spending side of the NDP's fiscal proposals. In short, the spending plan appears to address Alberta's high-spending ways with the novel approach of committing to still-higher levels of spending. In my view, for the Alberta NDP to meet its target of eliminating the deficit by 2018-19, they will need to reach deep into the "pragmatic prairie NDP" tradition and keep a tougher line on spending than is evident in their platform plan. How tough? I think that to meet their goals they will need to exhibit "unprecedented discipline" of the kind shown by Stephen Harper—which will be interesting to watch.

http://www.macleans.ca/economy/economicanalysis/there-are-two-big-problems-with-the-alberta-ndp-tax-plan/">http://www.macleans.ca/economy/economic ... -tax-plan/">http://www.macleans.ca/economy/economicanalysis/there-are-two-big-problems-with-the-alberta-ndp-tax-plan/

[Anonymous]

I agree with Gunter, at this time in 2017, this will be a very unpopular government.



Student and social worker are the most common occupations of this unqualified group of new MLA's. ac_rollseyes

Why shouldn't the crowd have chanted and cheered and swayed at the Legislature grounds on Sunday as the new NDP government was sworn in? The ceremony was a clear sign that democracy works.



After 43 years, eight months the Tory dynasty was out, replaced by Albertans with Premier Rachel Notley and her collection of college students and part-time pizza delivery drivers who lent their name to the cause during the recent election, then woke up on the morning of May 6 as surprised as anyone that they were now members of the Legislative Assembly.



I suspect I will like very little the new Notley government does. Still, on that glorious, sunny Sunday afternoon, their supporters rightly got to revel in their historic victory.



And they got to celebrate without being reminded that far more Albertans' voted right-of-centre than left-of-centre earlier this month, or that the new government's election platform is very likely at odds with the views of most Albertans.



In democracies, we hold elections precisely for the kind of moment witnessed on the Leg grounds on Sunday.



No doubt many in the crowd of thousands have complained over the years, as Tory majority followed Tory majority, that Alberta politics are corrupt or rigged.



Well, here was undeniable proof that it is not. Eventually Albertans get fed up with a long-in-the-tooth government and vote the bums out.



The swearing-in ceremony for the new cabinet should not be heartening just for true NDP supporters, but for all Albertans.



Within two years, expect the NDP government to be unpopular. Its push for a nearly 50% rise in the minimum wage will hammer small businesses. Even those small businesses with no minimum-wage workers will be forced to raise their employees' wages to keep ahead of the new provincial base pay.



Either small business owners will have to lay off workers to stay afloat or raise the price of consumer goods. How good an idea are Albertans going to think the mandatory raise is when the price of their drive-thru coffee or burger jumps by 25% or more?



But such thoughts were, rightly, a million miles away on Sunday in the capital.



It's a good thing that Notley's cabinet is the smallest since Social Credit ran Alberta half a century ago. Sure, it's that tiny mostly because they have a tiny talent pool to draw from.



Eight of 12 ministers sworn in on Sunday have no experience in the legislature, much less any experience in the cabinet. The two most-common job classifications among NDP caucus members are student and social worker.



The new finance minister (a social worker) had been on Calgary city council. The new health minister had been on the Edmonton Public School Board.



Before that, she had been an NDP researcher at the Legislature. The new energy minister has been a "business consultant" and used to be the vice-president of a small satellite campus of Grande Prairie Regional College. The new environment minister is a passionate feminist and advocate for the poor.



At least the new justice minister has a law degree, although it will likely do some good that there are fewer lawyers in charge than their used to be.



This new cabinet — many of whom have double- and triple-headed portfolios — are going to have trouble living up to their commitment to rollback many Tory tax hikes while at the same time jacking up spending by $1.3 billion or more.



And there is probably not a single person in the government caucus who understands that having a review of resource taxes (with a clear eye to raising them) will freeze investment in oil and gas until it is completed, even as resource prices recover.



But Sunday was no place for such real-world considerations.



Nor should it have been.



NDP Cabinet:



Rachel Notley



Premier

Minister of International and Intergovernmental Relations

Brian Mason



Minister of Transportation

Minister of Infrastructure

Government House Leader

David Eggen



Minister of Education

Minister of Culture and Tourism

Deron Bilous



Minister of Municipal Affairs

Minister of Service Alberta

Deputy Government House Leader

Joe Ceci



Minister of Finance and President of Treasury Board

Marg McCuaig-Boyd



Minister of Energy

Sarah Hoffman



Minister of Health

Minister of Seniors

Kathleen Ganley



Minister of Justice and Solicitor General

Minister of Aboriginal Relations

Lori Sigurdson



Minister of Innovation and Advanced Education

Minister of Jobs, Skills, Training and Labour

Oneil Carlier



Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Rural Development

Shannon Phillips



Minister of Environment and Sustainable Resource Development

Minister of Parks and Recreation

Minister Responsible for the Status of Women

Deputy Government House Leader

Irfan Sabir



Minister of Human Services

http://www.edmontonsun.com/2015/05/25/gunter-ndp-honeymoon-wont-last-long">http://www.edmontonsun.com/2015/05/25/g ... -last-long">http://www.edmontonsun.com/2015/05/25/gunter-ndp-honeymoon-wont-last-long

[Phagdish Hardy]

^You sure are right Shen Li. An Alberta NDP will not only be bad for Alberta it will be bad for all of Canada.



Fuck, are you ever smart Shen Li.

[RW]

The staff runs the show anyway.

[Phagdish Hardy]

^It will be funny watching these unqualified morons answer the hard questions. The official opposition actually has people that have worked in industry.

[RW]

So you need to be in oil to be a decent politician?

[Phagdish Hardy]

So you need to be in oil to be a decent politician?

 ac_toofunny yeah, that's what I said. ac_rollseyes

[RW]

I was wondering.



It's weird because politics seems to be the only high paying job in this country that doesn't have some kind of educational requirement.



That's fucked up eh?

[The Langley Ladyboy]

I was wondering.



It's weird because politics seems to be the only high paying job in this country that doesn't have some kind of educational requirement.



That's fucked up eh?

I tend to agree. It's not like the NDP has the first Alberta cabinet ministers who were clearly not ready for the position they held. It's just that they nominated so many people who were as surprised as anyone they actually won.

[Romero]

Albertans don't want or deserve any more $5 billion deficits. The Tories blew it.

And there is probably not a single person in the government caucus who understands that having a review of resource taxes (with a clear eye to raising them) will freeze investment in oil and gas until it is completed, even as resource prices recover.

Since when aren't taxes ever supposed to be reviewed? Every single thing in every single budget is reviewed. I bet the author wouldn't have a problem with reviewing the lowering of resource taxes!



Investment was already slowing. The Tories blew that too. They were found to be miscalculating the royalties and throwing away $2.5 billion a year, which explains the $5 billion deficit.



Alberta is for Albertans, not a handful of wealthy corporations.



The Progressive Conservatives were failing the oil companies as well anyway:

Suncor swings to loss as record output fails to offset weak oil prices



The Calgary-based company late on Wednesday said it lost $341-million, or 24 cents a share, in the first three months of the year. That compares with a profit of $1.45-billion, or $1.01 a share, in the same period a year ago.



http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/suncors-quarterly-profit-falls-as-oil-sands-production-fails-to-offset-weak-prices/article24179767/">//http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/suncors-quarterly-profit-falls-as-oil-sands-production-fails-to-offset-weak-prices/article24179767/

Why would Albertans have voted for more fail? We'll see how budgets and corporate earnings do under the NDP.

[Anonymous]

Albertans don't want or deserve any more $5 billion deficits. The Tories blew it.

The NDP solution to too much spending is more spending?

Since when aren't taxes supposed to ever be reviewed? Every single thing in every single budget is reviewed.

You don't raise cost in a slow times. That's madness. We rake in more resource revenue than any other province in Canada yet the NDP says we need more revenue and spending??



Alberta is not just for overpriced civil servants who the PC's bought off to stay in power. We demand value for all the taxes and resource wealth our government brings in. It should not be used to buy public service labour peace and elections.

Suncor swings to loss as record output fails to offset weak oil prices



The Calgary-based company late on Wednesday said it lost $341-million, or 24 cents a share, in the first three months of the year. That compares with a profit of $1.45-billion, or $1.01 a share, in the same period a year ago.



http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/suncors-quarterly-profit-falls-as-oil-sands-production-fails-to-offset-weak-prices/article24179767/">//http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/suncors-quarterly-profit-falls-as-oil-sands-production-fails-to-offset-weak-prices/article24179767/

Why would Albertans have voted for more fail? We'll see how the budget and corporate earnings do under the NDP.[/quote]

The PC's aren't responsible for low oil prices, OPEC is. Why the fuck would the PC's want low oil prices? That's like saying Brad Wall's Saskatchewan Party wants low potash prices.



Post Klein PC's used high resource revenues to buy labour peace. Your TYEE and OPEC friendsare to blame.

[J0E]

^It will be funny watching these unqualified morons answer the hard questions. The official opposition actually has people that have worked in industry.

This is an inherent weakness of the first-past-the-post/winner-take-all electoral system.



It doesn't really reflect the will of the Majority.

NDP getting a clear majority of the seats with only 40% of the vote.

The Conservatives in Ottawa the same with only 40% of the vote.



In the event that a party doesn't get 50% of the vote, they should be forced to appoint opposition MPs to the cabinet.

Either that, or non MPs from the industry to be appointed to cabinet to help them out.



If I'm not mistaken, the parlaimentary system enables non MPs to be appointed to cabinet.



So if available the NDP should use that option. If not PCs or Wild Rose, then someone closer to their political spectrum such as Liberals.

[J0E]

Albertans would've been better of with a minority guv no matter who got in.



Come to think of it, BC is long overdue for one.



The only time we get a semblance of democracy in our system is with minority guvs.



Otherwise, it's false majorities shoving their agendas down our throats.



And since these majorities aren't really accountable like minority guvs are which can be turfed out at any time, the former sit on their hands, don't do anything for the people.



The voting populus are quite dumb. They are addicted to the idea of majority guvs being necessary and then wonder why they never get what they want and these kind of guvs rarely deliver for them.

[Romero]

Albertans deserve a government for the people:

How Will Notley Lead? Hint: Her First Event Was Open to Everyone



It was more like a music festival than a government swearing-in ceremony.



The cabinet ministers of Alberta's first New Democrat government swore their oaths of office on the red-carpeted front steps of the provincial legislature Sunday as crowds gathered in the May sunshine. Many visitors were dressed in shorts and sandals, while kids played in the Legislature's reflective pool.



It was a far cry from previous swearing-in ceremonies, which have occurred far from public view, in boardrooms and government offices.



"Welcome to your Legislative Assembly," Notley emphasized in her first official speech as premier. After the ceremony, she led Alberta's new cabinet into the crowd to meet people.



To many in the crowd, the outdoor, public ceremony was a powerful gesture, which may signal permanent changes to the way the government interacts with Alberta citizens.



http://thetyee.ca/News/2015/05/26/How-Will-Rachel-Notley-Lead/">//http://thetyee.ca/News/2015/05/26/How-Will-Rachel-Notley-Lead/

[Anonymous]

After 44 years of one party rule, what is the PC legacy:

-Low unemployment

-Highest wages in the country

-Debt free

-The highest level of investment per capita in Canada

-Lowest taxes of any province

-Net internal migration destination



If the Nothead's inexperienced crew can improve on all these things then she deserves our vote in four years.