Money Sense

[DKG]

US hiring slowed modestly in December as employers added 223,000 jobs to close out an otherwise booming year, possibly foreshadowing the deeper pullback and recession that many economists expect in 2023. All the major indices are up sharply this morning due to that report.



"We think substantially slower payroll growth is coming very soon," Ian Shepherdson, chief economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote in a note to clients.

[DKG]

"Today there is spare capacity that is extremely low," Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said at a recent conference in London. "If China opens up, [the] economy starts improving or the aviation industry starts asking for more jet fuel, you will erode this spare capacity."



Nasser warns that oil prices could quickly spike — again.



Shell

The company's NYSE-listed shares are up 23% over the last year. Piper Sandler analyst Ryan Todd sees an opportunity in the oil and gas supermajor. In December, the analyst reiterated an 'overweight' rating on Shell at a price target of $70.



Considering that Shell trades at around $57 per share today, Todd's new price target implies a potential upside of 22%.





Chevron

For Q3, the company reported earnings of $11.2 billion, which represented an 84% increase from the same period last year. Sales and other operating revenues totaled $64 billion for the quarter, up 49% year over year.





Exxon Mobil

Commanding a market cap of over $430 billion, Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) is bigger than Shell and Chevron.



The company also boasts the strongest stock price performance among the three in 2022 — Exxon shares are up 59.61% over the last year.



It's not hard to see why investors like the stock: the oil-producing giant gushes profits and cash flow in this commodity price environment. In the first nine months of 2022, Exxon earned $43.0 billion in profits, a huge increase from the $14.2 billion in the year-ago period. Free cash flow totaled $49.8 billion for the first nine months, compared to $22.9 billion in the same period last year.



Solid financials allow the company to return cash to investors. Exxon pays quarterly dividends of 91 cents per share, translating to an annual yield of 3.4%.



Jefferies analyst Lloyd Byrne has a 'buy' rating on Exxon and a price target of $133 — around 22% above where the stock sits today.

[DKG]

The cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, for Social Security payments increased by 8.7 percent for 2023. That's because of decades-high inflation that endured for most of last year.

[weebles]

All I hear is people complain about money and wealth  but yet no ever says  if you had  it  all... would you be truly happy?

[Anonymous]

Personal fulfilment of course.

[Thiel]

Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Coinbase. and Vox Media have all slashed thousands of jobs in a move to improve their bottom line. Tech has been overvalued for too long. This will stabilize those companies.

[DKG]

The reopening of China's economy could have a deleterious effect on global markets, and inflation.  This will put renewed pressure on oil prices, which dropped nearly 40% from their 2022 peak. This will put pressure on central banks to maintain a tight credit policy pushing earnings and markets down and deepening a global slowdown.

[DKG]

The Federal Reserve is poised this week to raise its benchmark interest rate for an eighth time since March. But the Fed will likely announce a smaller hike for a second straight time, and it could change some key wording in its post-meeting statement about future rate increases.



A change in its statement, if there is one, could be seen as signaling an eventual pause in the Fed's aggressive drive to raise borrowing costs. Chair Jerome Powell is still likely to stress, though, that the Fed's campaign to conquer high inflation is far from over.



When its latest meeting ends Wednesday, the 19-member policymaking committee is expected to raise its key short-term rate, which affects many business and consumer loans, by a quarter-point. In doing so, it would elevate the rate to a range of 4.5% to 4.75%, its highest level in 15 years. The Fed's move would follow a half-point rate hike in December and four three-quarter point hikes before that.

[Lokmar]

RV market's been in the shitter for more than a month now. Its the canary in the coal mine. Mark my words.

[DKG]

RV market's been in the shitter for more than a month now. Its the canary in the coal mine. Mark my words.

Luxury leisure goods sales are a bellweather of the overall economy.

[Lokmar]

RV market's been in the shitter for more than a month now. Its the canary in the coal mine. Mark my words.

Luxury leisure goods sales are a bellweather of the overall economy.

Yep. Also, I learned recently that one of the largest companies in the country is going to curtail upgrading their field equipment by as much as 70% because of inflationary pressure. Transitory my ass!

[DKG]

Luxury leisure goods sales are a bellweather of the overall economy.

Yep. Also, I learned recently that one of the largest companies in the country is going to curtail upgrading their field equipment by as much as 70% because of inflationary pressure. Transitory my ass!

I haven't read that. Which company?

[Frood]

Probably agricultural equipment where it's cheaper to buy new in North America instead of spending more for used equipment with hundreds of hours on the clock.



My boss told me how he paid for his skid steel's mulching head...



73k AUD... so like 50 grand US for a small weld thing with hydraulics.

[DKG]

Investors hoping for a continuation of the stock market rally that began in mid-October are in for a rude awakening, according to Bank of America.



The bank said that the stock market is set to peak in the next two-weeks because inflation is poised to make a comeback.



Let's hope they are dead wrong.

[Lokmar]

Yep. Also, I learned recently that one of the largest companies in the country is going to curtail upgrading their field equipment by as much as 70% because of inflationary pressure. Transitory my ass!

I haven't read that. Which company?

I cant divulge. They are very similar to Comcast.