International Shipping has come to a Halt

[J0E]

....a harbinger of things to come?



I spoke to a friend last night, and thought he was kidding. However, several reports from credible, big name news organizations has suggested that this is the case:



http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/money/economy/2008-12-28-global-import-export-trade-slump_N.htm">http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/money/ec ... lump_N.htm">http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/money/economy/2008-12-28-global-import-export-trade-slump_N.htm

By David J. Lynch, USA TODAY

The unstoppable force has stopped.



With economies in the United States, Europe and Japan slowing simultaneously, the World Bank says that global trade will shrink next year by more than 2%. That will mark the first time in more than a quarter century that the seemingly inexorable tide of globalization will be in retreat.



"Trade tends to be extra responsive to changes in income. When the world economy contracts, trade contracts even more rapidly," says economic historian Douglas Irwin of Dartmouth College.



The trade slump is both symptom and cause of the current global economic distress. For the U.S. economy, which just a few months ago was getting almost all of its forward momentum from net exports, "Trade will be a substantial drag on ... growth," Ian Shepherdson, chief economist of High Frequency Economics, told clients in a recent research note.



Compounding the recessionary gloom, trade is being choked by the credit crunch, which is drying up routine export financing. Entering 2009, the open trading system that has delivered low-cost goods to American consumers while lifting tens of millions of people in developing countries out of poverty faces the danger of protectionism in countries such as China, Russia, France and, potentially, the U.S.

https://www.superstation95.com/index.php/world/750">https://www.superstation95.com/index.php/world/750

Commerce between Europe and North America has literally come to a halt. For the first time in known history, not one cargo ship is in-transit in the North Atlantic between Europe and North America. All of them (hundreds) are either anchored offshore or in-port. NOTHING is moving.



https://cdn.superstation95.com/media/k2/items/cache/2e79051f535b06583dfeaa47b4b5b74c_XL.jpg">https://cdn.superstation95.com/media/k2 ... 74c_XL.jpg">https://cdn.superstation95.com/media/k2/items/cache/2e79051f535b06583dfeaa47b4b5b74c_XL.jpg[/img]



This has never happened before. It is a horrific economic sign; proof that commerce is literally stopped.



The reason commerce has stopped is simple: People are not buying things.   When people do not buy things, retailers do not sell things, so they do not order more goods for stock.



When retailers do not order goods, manufacturers don't make anything because there are no orders to fill.  When manufacturers do not make goods, they don't order raw materials for manufacturing.



When there are no orders for raw materials, commodities sellers do not sell raw materials. When no raw materials are sold, there is no shipping by large cargo ships, (or railroads or tractor trailers) to move anything.



Put simply, the global economy is LITERALLY stopping.  Right now.  Today.

[Anonymous]

No cargo ships from Europe you say? The parts our service contractor ordered arrived Friday at the port of Montreal.

[J0E]

No cargo ships from Europe you say? The parts our service contractor ordered arrived Friday at the port of Montreal.

Well, maybe you know better, Herman.



Seems you been around long enough to have experienced the economic cycles, the ups and downs.



What do you make of these latest news reports & their implications for our economic future?



Is this normal? Are the prognosticators a bunch of Chicken Littles?



Or is it a dark omen?

[J0E]

I'd like to hear from our Resident Business Analyst, seoulbro.



I wonder what he has to say.



seoulbro, where are you? Contacting seoulbro....

[Anonymous]

No cargo ships from Europe you say? The parts our service contractor ordered arrived Friday at the port of Montreal.

Well, maybe you know better, Herman.



Seems you been around long enough to have experienced the economic cycles, the ups and downs.



What do you make of these latest news reports & their implications for our economic future?



Is this normal? Are the prognosticators a bunch of Chicken Littles?



Or is it a dark omen?

I'm not an economics expert, I'm just an old rig pig. But I know that article you posted was exaggerated.

[J0E]

Well...maybe you're right, perhaps the news media has a way of doing that - sells more newspapers, creates jobs for them, eh?



Anyways, here's a info from another link:



Here's some more charts from another website:



https://www.dollarvigilante.com/blog/2016/01/11/shipping-said-to-have-ceased-is-the-worldwide-economy-grinding-to-a-halt.html">https://www.dollarvigilante.com/blog/20 ... -halt.html">https://www.dollarvigilante.com/blog/2016/01/11/shipping-said-to-have-ceased-is-the-worldwide-economy-grinding-to-a-halt.html

The Baltic Dry Index, an assessment of the price of moving major raw materials by sea, was already at record all-time lows a month ago.



https://www.dollarvigilante.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/BDI-5-year-chart-The-Dollar-Vigilante.jpg">



In the last month it has dropped even more, especially in the last week.



https://www.dollarvigilante.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/BDI-1-month-chart-The-Dollar-Vigilante-1.jpg">



Factories aren't buying and retailers aren't stocking.  The ratio of inventory to sales in the US is an indicator of this. The last time that ratio was this high was during the "great recession" in 2008.



https://www.dollarvigilante.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Inventories-to-Sales-ratio-The-Dollar-Vigilante.jpg">

No cargo ships from Europe you say? The parts our service contractor ordered arrived Friday at the port of Montreal.

Well, maybe you know better, Herman.



Seems you been around long enough to have experienced the economic cycles, the ups and downs.



What do you make of these latest news reports & their implications for our economic future?



Is this normal? Are the prognosticators a bunch of Chicken Littles?



Or is it a dark omen?

I'm not an economics expert, I'm just an old rig pig. But I know that article you posted was exaggerated.

[Anonymous]

Trans Atlantic cargo is still moving, but it will down this year. Orders are still being placed and hey being filled.

Trans-Atlantic tops other container trades in profitability prospects

http://www.joc.com/maritime-news/trade-lanes/trans-atlantic/trans-atlantic-tops-other-container-trades-profitability-prospects_20160106.html">http://www.joc.com/maritime-news/trade- ... 60106.html">http://www.joc.com/maritime-news/trade-lanes/trans-atlantic/trans-atlantic-tops-other-container-trades-profitability-prospects_20160106.html