Stratfor Looks at China's Unprecedented Demographic Problem

[cc]

The current slowdown will no doubt get a lot worse. Many if not most economists figure it will have repercussions around the world



In China, an Unprecedented Demographic Problem Takes Shape



Chinese society is on the verge of a structural transformation even more profound than the long and painful project of economic rebalancing, which the Communist Party is anxiously beginning to undertake. China's population is aging more rapidly than it is getting rich, giving rise to a great demographic imbalance with important implications for the Party's efforts to transform the Chinese economy and preserve its own power in the coming decade



Summary

Chinese society is on the verge of a structural transformation even more profound than the long and painful project of economic rebalancing, which the Communist Party is anxiously beginning to undertake. China's population is aging more rapidly than it is getting rich, giving rise to a great demographic imbalance with important implications for the Party's efforts to transform the Chinese economy and preserve its own power in the coming decade.



Analysis

Two reports in Chinese media highlight different aspects of China's unfolding demographic crunch. The Ministry of Education reported Aug. 21 that more than 13,600 primary schools closed nationwide in 2012. The ministry looked to China's dramatically shifting demographic profile to explain the widespread closures, noting that between 2011 and 2012 the number of students in primary and secondary schools fell from nearly 150 million to 145 million. It also confirmed that between 2002 and 2012, the number of students enrolled in primary schools dropped by nearly 20 percent. The ministry's report comes one day after an article in People's Daily, the government newspaper, warned of China's impending social security crisis as the number of elderly is expected to rise from 194 million in 2012 to 300 million by 2025.



http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/china-unprecedented-demographic-problem-takes-shape?utm_source=freelist-f&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20130822&utm_term=FreeReport&utm_content=readmore&elq=aff91b3fa00e473b9e48f9e2a5e4708a">Much More from Stratfor including demographic projection tables

[Anonymous]

The current slowdown will no doubt get a lot worse. Many if not most economists figure it will have repercussions around the world



In China, an Unprecedented Demographic Problem Takes Shape



Chinese society is on the verge of a structural transformation even more profound than the long and painful project of economic rebalancing, which the Communist Party is anxiously beginning to undertake. China's population is aging more rapidly than it is getting rich, giving rise to a great demographic imbalance with important implications for the Party's efforts to transform the Chinese economy and preserve its own power in the coming decade



Summary

Chinese society is on the verge of a structural transformation even more profound than the long and painful project of economic rebalancing, which the Communist Party is anxiously beginning to undertake. China's population is aging more rapidly than it is getting rich, giving rise to a great demographic imbalance with important implications for the Party's efforts to transform the Chinese economy and preserve its own power in the coming decade.



Analysis

Two reports in Chinese media highlight different aspects of China's unfolding demographic crunch. The Ministry of Education reported Aug. 21 that more than 13,600 primary schools closed nationwide in 2012. The ministry looked to China's dramatically shifting demographic profile to explain the widespread closures, noting that between 2011 and 2012 the number of students in primary and secondary schools fell from nearly 150 million to 145 million. It also confirmed that between 2002 and 2012, the number of students enrolled in primary schools dropped by nearly 20 percent. The ministry's report comes one day after an article in People's Daily, the government newspaper, warned of China's impending social security crisis as the number of elderly is expected to rise from 194 million in 2012 to 300 million by 2025.



http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/china-unprecedented-demographic-problem-takes-shape?utm_source=freelist-f&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20130822&utm_term=FreeReport&utm_content=readmore&elq=aff91b3fa00e473b9e48f9e2a5e4708a">Much More from Stratfor including demographic projection tables

Thank you for posting that informative article Ms. CC..



I do not like China, but I hope they do not descend into chaos.

[cc]

You are very welcome



Yes, let's hope not. For humanitarian reasons (the people within) and for the rest of the world. Because of this globalization we have ourselves in, all will be affected ... at least in the short term

[Anonymous]

You are very welcome



Yes, let's hope not. For humanitarian reasons (the people within) and for the rest of the world. Because of this globalization we have ourselves in, all will be affected ... at least in the short term

I am not savvy about these international affairs and how they will affect people like you and I the way you are Ms. CC..



But it seems too many countries are counting on China and to a lesser extent India to maintain their living standards.

[cc]

In some ways that is true and a very very bad idea. I've always been a bit isolationist, ....well ... .certainly  on trade. It has been sad for me to watch us sell out souls for cheap goods from countries that will never buy significantly from us ... as our workers loose jobs.



Buying from China (and others too), from countries where workers make very little,  without major duties to correspond to the difference in base cost to produce an item and to allow for their currency manipulation. Their currency is deliberately devalued in order to sell to us for cheap. We have let it happen, to our peril

[Anonymous]

In some ways that is true and a very very bad idea. I've always been a bit isolationist, ....well ... .certainly  on trade. It has been sad for me to watch us sell out souls for cheap goods from countries that will never buy significantly from us ... as our workers loose jobs.



Buying from China, a country where workers make very little,  without major duties to correspond to the difference in base cost to produce an item and to allow for their currency manipulation. Their currency is deliberately devalued in order to sell to us for cheap. We have let it happen, to our peril

I did know that Ms. CC..



I do not like the way China bullies all it's neighbours, but as a Taiwanese I really hate the way they use their enormous market as leverage when they insist trade partners not recognize Taiwan's obvious sovereignty..



If a poll was done in Canada asking whether Canada should recognize Taiwan's de facto independence I don't think many Canadians would oppose it.

[cc]

You are right in how China uses its clout. This sways politicians but not the people



China is not riding so high right now. Large as it is, it may fall quite a bit lower which will be a major game changer in all areas

[Anonymous]

You are right in how China uses its clout. This sways politicians but not the people



China is not riding so high right now. Large as it is, it may fall quite a bit lower which will be a major game changer in all areas

My husband watched a program on TV about what a huge portion of the economy construction is in China..



Anyway, they have huge buildings and shopping centres sitting empty..



If real estate and construction in China collapses who knows the economic tidal wave it will unleash internationally and poltical upheaval internally.

[cc]

Saw that last night on CBC. It is crazy.

The whole thing was surreal. New cities built for millions of people who never came now sit  empty  .. eerie  ... like a B grade end of the world movie



They greatly overshot their anticipated increasing wealth and will pay a heavy price for it.

[Anonymous]

Saw that last night on CBC. It is crazy.

The whole thing was surreal. New cities built for millions of people who never came now sit  empty  .. eerie  ... like a B grade end of the world movie



They greatly overshot their anticipated increasing wealth and will pay a heavy price for it.

Maybe we all will Ms. CC.

[cc]

To a degree. Actually, while many forecast problems here when China falls, I believe it will ultimately be good for us ..... our industries returning etc. Depends on how our politicians and business itself plays its hands

[Anonymous]

To a degree. Actually, while many forecast problems here when China falls, I believe it will ultimately be good for us ..... our industries returning etc. Depends on how our politicians and business itself plays its hands

But wouldn't there be some deep short term pain Ms. CC?



Sorry for my ignorance on these matters.

 :oops:

[cc]

China is not my primary area of expertise either. There would likely be some short term pain. At least that is what many say.

[Anonymous]

China is not my primary area of expertise either. There would likely be some short term pain. At least that is what many say.

Thank you for the helpful information Ms. CC..



You are a very intelligent lady..



I know this is off topic, but I feel so bad for you the way EU follows you around on Vancouver Forum with childish insults..



I don't like to talk bad about people, but he is not yet a grown-up..



It's getting late, so I am going to bed..



Goodnight Ms. CC.

[cc]

People of such a low level never bother me. I take it as a glaring compliment that I am effective at saying what I want to say and what he doesn't want said. It's because I post info  about the ideology of islam that make him uncomfortable, for reasons known only to him .. assuming it is a "him"



A day ago, he made a colossal error and didn't get a joke I made (jumped too fast  .. thought I was serious .. caused by his blind obsession) so I added it to my sig, (for a little while). I will not play his "ongoing" game for long though





Maybe there are some here who know more on the China situation and will add info