Money Sense

[DKG]

The S&P 500 fell on Wednesday as a grim outlook from Target spurred fresh concerns about retailers heading into the crucial holiday season, while semiconductor shares slumped broadly after Micron's supply cut.



Shares of Target Corp tumbled after the big-box retailer forecast a surprise drop in holiday-quarter sales.



Retail stocks slumped broadly, including steep declines in shares of Macy's Inc, Best Buy Co Inc and Foot Locker.



Micron Technology shares dropped after the company said it would reduce memory chip supply and make more cuts to its capital spending plan. The S&P 500 information technology sector and the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index both sank.

[DKG]

An assembly of Fed officials on Thursday pushed back against speculation that a pause on monetary tightening is close. The remarks made in separate speaking engagements across the country sent stocks and bonds into disarray after a fleeting uptrend propelled by lighter inflation data.



 St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and ​​San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly each said the central bank is looking at a terminal rate of up to 5.25%.



Central Banks should immediately pause raising interest rates.

[DKG]

Amin Nasser, chief executive officer, Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Aramco) has warned that oil prices could quickly spike again  as producing nations face "extremely low" spare capacity.



He warned that the oil prices could quickly jump soon.



"Today there is spare capacity that is extremely low, if China opens up, the economy starts improving or the aviation industry starts asking for more jet fuel, you will erode this spare capacity," he said.



"When you erode that spare capacity the world should be worried. There will be no space for any hiccup — any interruption, any unforeseen events anywhere around the world."



As a response I recommend Shell, which is expected to grow in 2023.



Chevron, approved a 6% increase to the quarterly dividend rate to $1.42 per share. That gives the company an annual dividend yield of 3.0%.The stock has enjoyed a nice rally too, climbing 57% in 2022. Solid financials allow the company to return cash to investors. Exxon pays quarterly dividends of 91 cents per share, translating to an annual yield of 3.2%. There is a buy rating on Exxon and a price target of $133 — around 17% above where the stock sits today.







Exxon Mobil has a commanding a market cap of over $460 billion.

[DKG]

It's too optimistic to think interest rate rises are done, says Federated Hermes' chief strategist. "The market is whistling past the graveyard and expecting the best thing to happen," Phil Orlando said. It could take until the end of 2024 for inflation to fall to the Fed's 2% target, he added.

[DKG]

US stocks will slump, inflation will cool, and a recession will hit as a global downturn takes hold, top UBS strategist says.



US stocks could rally in the short term but haven't bottomed yet, Bhanu Baweja said.

The top UBS strategist sees underlying inflation cooling, and the US economy suffering a recession.

Earnings pressure, higher bond yields, and a global downturn will likely weigh on stocks, he said. I agree with this.

[DKG]

Historic protests across China over its zero-COVID policy battered U.S. stocks on Monday, highlighting a close link between the contentious Chinese measures and domestic economic conditions that could help determine whether the U.S. enters a recession.



COVID lockdowns in China have clogged supply chains in the manufacturing stalwart, extending pandemic-era bottlenecks that have contributed to inflation.  Meanwhile, the zero-COVID policy has stagnated the Chinese economy, hurting spending among Chinese customers and in turn pummeling U.S companies that depend on it.

[DKG]

The stock market typically doesn't bottom out until after the Federal Reserve begins to reduce interest rates. Stocks have been rallying in recent weeks on the expectation/hope that the Fed at its December meeting will raise rates by 50 basis points as opposed to the anticipated 75 basis points. We are not at the pivot point yet where the Fed stops raising interest rates.

[DKG]

The current rally in stocks will trick investors into thinking the bear market is over, but there's still a case for the S&P 500 to fall another 26% next year.



Stocks gained momentum after the October inflation report clocked in below-expectations, spurring hopes the Fed will ease up on its monetary tightening and give equities more room to breathe. Inflation is also set to slow to 2%-3% next year, which is good for the economy but spells trouble for stocks. That's because falling inflation will weaken profit margins.



It could be a buyer's market for a while. A lot depends on the US Fed and other central banks.

[Frood]

It's a mugs game if you don't have outright titles and physical wealth...



We're witnessing the take down of most stores of value and savings with individuals and their families.



Food, fuel, fertiliser, heirloom seeds, precious metals, spare parts, land, protection, and like minded people are becoming a short supply.



It's a slow burn cull of humanity.



Like leading each of the cattle away from the herd in order to slaughter them without spiking the adrenaline of the rest...



Find some paddock that is safer than the rest.

[DKG]

It's a mugs game if you don't have outright titles and physical wealth...



We're witnessing the take down of most stores of value and savings with individuals and their families.



Food, fuel, fertiliser, heirloom seeds, precious metals, spare parts, land, protection, and like minded people are becoming a short supply.



It's a slow burn cull of humanity.



Like leading each of the cattle away from the herd in order to slaughter them without spiking the adrenaline of the rest...



Find some paddock that is safer than the rest.

Shares are real wealth. Real companies are asset based. Investors own a piece. They do well, the investor does well. If interest rates are high, people don't borrow money and buy products and services companies provide and share values retreat. Interest rates are low, it spurs consumption and company profits increase and so does investor wealth. And over time, the markets always go up.

[Frood]

It's a mugs game if you don't have outright titles and physical wealth...



We're witnessing the take down of most stores of value and savings with individuals and their families.



Food, fuel, fertiliser, heirloom seeds, precious metals, spare parts, land, protection, and like minded people are becoming a short supply.



It's a slow burn cull of humanity.



Like leading each of the cattle away from the herd in order to slaughter them without spiking the adrenaline of the rest...



Find some paddock that is safer than the rest.

Shares are real wealth. Real companies are asset based. Investors own a piece. They do well, the investor does well. If interest rates are high, people don't borrow money and buy products and services companies provide and share values retreat. Interest rates are low, it spurs consumption and company profits increase and so does investor wealth. And over time, the markets always go up.

Until it all falls apart.



I get what you're saying but the great reset is coming and computer/paper ledgers won't matter one day.... in our lives or our children's.



It's all a ponzi scheme... it's ALWAYS been a ponzi scheme...



The fall of Rome just keeps repeating.



If you want to rely on the system, good for you.



I prefer to think to the future when this shit collapses again and what I need to do now for my family so their families have a fighting chance to live....and it's nearly on our doorstep, mate.



So look beyond yourself. If you don't have kids, think about the kids in your relative group. Secure their future by not only investing in rigged markets but in tangible and physical things while you still can.



Hedge.

[Shen Li]

I'm 38 years old. I've been investing since I was 23. My investments have increasesd many fold. It's always irresponsible clowns that didn't plan for their own futures that criticize people for being smart and successful.

[JOE]

The stock market typically doesn't bottom out until after the Federal Reserve begins to reduce interest rates. Stocks have been rallying in recent weeks on the expectation/hope that the Fed at its December meeting will raise rates by 50 basis points as opposed to the anticipated 75 basis points. We are not at the pivot point yet where the Fed stops raising interest rates.

Methinx 2023 will be a rough year.



Even worse for many than 2022.



They had a 10 year bull market.

So it had to come down at some point.



Be a couple more years at least til it starts to show signs if any, of coming back.

[Shen Li]

If any. ac_toofunny  ac_lmfao  

[TheProwler]

The stock market typically doesn't bottom out until after the Federal Reserve begins to reduce interest rates. Stocks have been rallying in recent weeks on the expectation/hope that the Fed at its December meeting will raise rates by 50 basis points as opposed to the anticipated 75 basis points. We are not at the pivot point yet where the Fed stops raising interest rates.

Methinx 2023 will be a rough year.



Even worse for many than 2022.



They had a 10 year bull market.

So it had to come down at some point.



Be a couple more years at least til it starts to show signs if any, of coming back.

S&P 500 PE Ratio is 21.18, down from over 65.  It will probably get down to 15, maybe even 10.



Pfizer, as one example, is a great deal with a 9.75 PE ratio right now.



TSX PE Ratio is 14.2, down from over 50.  It might now get any lower.



Many Canadian Blue Chip stocks with a PE ratio under 7 can be found.  Now is a great time to invest in the Canadian stock market.