The long term cost of lock downs

Anonymous · July 26, 2020, 11:14:18 AM

AROUND THE WORLD

Almost 40 countries have reported record single-day increases in coronavirus infections over the past week, around double the number that did so the previous week, according to a Reuters tally.

Germany may introduce compulsory coronavirus testing for holidaymakers returning from high-risk destinations after the number of new infections in the country hit a twomonth high, the health minister said.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, criticized for acting too slowly in the pandemic, said Friday there may have been things he could have done differently.

The United States recorded more than 1,000 COVID-19 deaths for the fourth straight day on Friday but a top White House adviser on the pandemic said she saw signs the worst could be over in southern and western states.

Mexico City's mayor warned of a possible resurgence of cases in the sprawling capital in the coming months, noting that hospitalizations have been on the rise in recent days.

South Korea reported 113 new cases on Saturday, the largest single-day increase in almost four months, and officials warned the upward trajectory could continue as people carrying the disease enter the country from abroad.

Three members of the South African women's cricket team were tested positive for the coronavirus ahead of assembling for a training camp to prepare a proposed tour of England.

A senior Lebanese official said he found out during a lunch with visiting French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian that he had tested positive for COVID-19.

Anonymous · August 06, 2020, 09:15:09 PM

Another deadly consequence of lock downs is the increase in types heart disease.

Cases of broken heart syndrome increase amid pandemic stress

Stress from the coronavirus pandemic may be breaking people's hearts.

Cardiologists in Ohio have found that the number of patients experiencing Takotsubo cardiomyopathy, or broken heart syndrome, increased four-to-five fold during the coronavirus pandemic compared with pre-pandemic levels, according to a small new study.

Broken heart syndrome is typically brought on by extreme physical or emotional distress, and can cause heart muscles to suddenly weaken, according to a Live Science report. The symptoms can be similar to those of a heart attack, including chest pain and shortness of breath, according to the report.

The causes of broken heart syndrome aren't known, but it's thought that physically or emotionally stressful events can cause the body to release stress hormones that temporarily reduce the heart's ability to pump normally, according to a statement.

The pandemic has led to "multiple levels of stress in people's lives across the country and world," study co-author Dr. Ankur Kalra, a Cleveland Clinic cardiologist in the Sections of Invasive and Interventional Cardiology and Regional Cardiovascular Medicine, said in the statement. "People are not only worried about themselves or their families becoming ill, they are dealing with economic and emotional issues, societal problems and potential loneliness and isolation."

In the new study, Kalra and his team analyzed data from 258 patients who came to the Cleveland Clinic and Cleveland Clinic Akron General with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) between March 1 and April 30, corresponding to the time period when the pandemic was first taking off in the U.S. They then compared these patients with four control groups of ACS patients who came to the clinics before the pandemic: from the beginning of March to the end of April of 2018, the beginning of January to the end of February of 2019, from the beginning of March to the end of April of 2019 and the beginning of January to the end of February of 2020.

The researchers found that 7.8% of ACS patients were diagnosed with broken heart syndrome during the pandemic, compared with 1.5% to 1.8% before the pandemic. What's more, they found that patients who had broken heart syndrome during the pandemic stayed at the hospital for longer than those in the pre-pandemic groups.

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Anonymous · August 13, 2020, 04:48:10 PM

It seems the Swedish approach which relied on voluntary social distancing has inflicted less damage on the nation's economic well being and I would guess it's emotional and physical well being too.

Sweden's economy outperforms other European countries during pandemic

Sweden's economy has fared better during the peak three months of the coronavirus pandemic than the European average, the country's statistics agency has reported, adding to growing evidence that the decision to avoid a full lockdown is paying economic dividends.

The country's gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 8.6 per cent in April and June, compared to the preceding three months, Statistics Sweden reported.

The average drop of the ten member states who have so far submitted flash estimates for the three months is 11.9 per cent, the EU's statistics agency reported last week. Spain, France and Italy did still worse, with their economies contracting by 18.5, 13.8, and 12.4 percent respectively.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/08/05/swedens-economy-outperforms-european-countries-pandemic/">https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/0 ... -pandemic/">https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/08/05/swedens-economy-outperforms-european-countries-pandemic/

Anonymous · August 19, 2020, 10:32:56 PM

hmmm

The Alberta Teachers' Association is calling on the province to push back the first day of school until after Labour Day to give teachers and principals more time to prepare for teaching through the COVID-19 pandemic.

With the school year set to begin the first week of September, ATA president Jason Schilling says the government should postpone classes until at least Sept. 8. At that point, Schilling says individual schools should be left to decide if they're ready to reopen.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/alberta-teachers-association-calls-on-province-to-delay-start-of-school-year/ar-BB18aphK?li=AAggNb9&ocid=mailsignout">https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/a ... ailsignout">https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/alberta-teachers-association-calls-on-province-to-delay-start-of-school-year/ar-BB18aphK?li=AAggNb9&ocid=mailsignout

Gaon · August 23, 2020, 12:33:19 PM

A tweet from Dr Kulvinder Kaur

How are 10,000 monthly child deaths in developing world from starvation d/t illogical global #COVID19 lockdowns & 100,000,000 innocent people estimated to succumb to poverty & suffer/die in developing world due to the developed world's illogical lockdowns not a horrific genocide?

Gaon · August 23, 2020, 12:58:40 PM

Developed World's Lockdowns May Be Catastrophic for Third World Poor

Pandemic-related lockdowns in developing countries may reduce 100 million people to grinding poverty while causing suffering and death on a scale that may dwarf the human effects of the CCP virus that causes the disease COVID-19, sources say.

Experts say that in recent years, growing economic freedom has lifted huge segments of the world population out of destitution.

"Over the last 25 years, more than a billion people have lifted themselves out of extreme poverty, and the global poverty rate is now lower than it has ever been in recorded history," World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim said in 2018. "This is one of the greatest human achievements of our time."

Steven J. Allen, distinguished senior fellow at the think tank Capital Research Center, told The Epoch Times that the effect of the spread of free markets "on the poorest people, has been to raise them out of poverty, and then, this comes along and just knocks them right back down."

The lockdowns "don't appear to have had any positive effect in terms of stopping the virus," added Allen, who earned a doctorate in biodefense from George Mason University.

"Progressives [who have supported the lockdowns more strongly than conservatives] never really think about the impact their policies have on those who can't afford them. It's going to take years to recover from this."

The outlook for the economy is grim, according to Kenneth Rogoff, the Thomas D. Cabot professor of public policy and professor of economics at Harvard University. The "economic catastrophe" caused by the pandemic is "likely to rival or exceed that of any recession in the last 150 years," he wrote in April.

Extreme Poverty

Poverty shortens lifespans, experts say. COVID-19 and the tough governmental responses to the pandemic appear poised to set back the struggle against acute poverty by years, as the world braces for what could be the first increase in extreme poverty in 22 years, according to an Associated Press report underwritten by the Pulitzer Center on Crisis Reporting.

The global extreme poverty rate plunged to 10 percent in 2015 from 36 percent in 1990 as the pool of very poor people shrank to 736 million from about 2 billion, according to World Bank data. This means that around 736 million people–half of whom are concentrated in Bangladesh, Congo, Ethiopia, India, and Nigeria—were scraping by on under $1.90 a day, the so-called international poverty line, as of 2015.

Policy experts worry that the pandemic and the accompanying restrictions aimed at mitigating it could drag 100 million people around the world back below the international poverty line, according to the World Bank.

"For well-off people in wealthy countries, the lockdowns are an annoyance and a bore. The lockdowns are a disaster for poor people in poor countries," said Myron Ebell, director of the Center for Energy and Environment at the Competitive Enterprise Institute, a think tank.

"Decades of progress in lessening hunger and raising living standards are being wiped out by these criminally insane lockdowns," he told The Epoch Times.

"In the short term, I wouldn't be surprised if there is widespread hunger and even starvation in some poor countries. And it could take a decade or longer to overcome the economic devastation caused by the Wuhan virus panic."

Some of the economic problems in countries outside the United States can be traced to weakness in the U.S. economy, said economist Christos A. Makridis, a research assistant professor at the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University.

"Supply chains across the world are so linked, so a decline in demand in the U.S. leads to even sharper declines in other countries because of their dependence on the U.S. market for their own economic activity," he told The Epoch Times.

"Declines in their economic activity imply a deterioration in their health care infrastructures, too."

https://www.theepochtimes.com/developed-worlds-lockdowns-may-be-catastrophic-for-third-world-poor_3466168.html">https://www.theepochtimes.com/developed ... 66168.html">https://www.theepochtimes.com/developed-worlds-lockdowns-may-be-catastrophic-for-third-world-poor_3466168.html

History will not judge lock downs of healthy people favorably.

Anonymous · August 24, 2020, 10:11:05 PM

Dr. Scott Atlas responds to Biden, warns prolonged coronavirus lockdown is 'killing people'

'We all know that the prolonged lockdown is severely harmful,' White House adviser tells 'The Story'

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Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has promised to lock down the U.S. if scientists advise it, but Special Adviser to the President Dr. Scott Atlas told "The Story" Monday that prolonging lockdowns is only leading to more deaths.

"I think we all know that the prolonged lockdown is severely harmful to our country," Atlas told host Martha MacCallum. "In fact, it's killing people. We don't just talk even about the medical care that's been missed. We're not just talking about the unemployment-related suicides and other harms. We have the latest data from the CDC that showed that there's a massive increase in people with psychiatric illness and depressive and anxiety disorders."

According to CDC data, more than 25% of Americans between the ages of 18 and 25 have contemplated suicide in the last 30 days. Atlas said President Trump is carrying out policy that is "strategic and appropriate" to protect the vulnerable since this has "really got to end."

"It's not about all the cases that's the most important metric," he said. "It's about saving lives by protecting the vulnerable, by preventing hospital overcrowding ... and by opening the economy, opening the schools. Because American lives are being destroyed."

Atlas noted that nations like the U.K. are already realizing that keeping people locked down is an inappropriate use of policy and stated that the fatality rate in the U.S. from the coronavirus has dropped by 90% percent since the peak of the pandemic in April.

Anonymous · August 26, 2020, 02:50:49 PM

Lock downs should only be an absolute last resort and should not last much more than one month.

Shutdowns Spur Mental Health Crisis in US, Experts Say

A basket of worries—spurred by anxieties related to job security, financial instability, grief from death, or loneliness—are plaguing an increasing number of Americans living amid the COVID-19 pandemic and its shutdown measures.

Among 5,412 Americans surveyed at the end of June, 41 percent reported at least one adverse mental or behavioral health condition, according to an Aug. 14 Morbidity and Mortality report by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The number is higher among younger adults between the ages of 18 and 24, with 75 percent of respondents reporting experiencing at least one condition.

Dr. Carla Marie Manly, a clinical psychologist who specializes in stress and anxiety, has noticed "a huge surge in depression, suicidality, and anxiety during the pandemic," she told The Epoch Times. Manly has participated in a number of programs to help those affected, including virtual group sessions, free mental health videos, and individual therapy work.

Just over 10 percent of adults reported seriously considering suicide in the previous 30 days before June, the CDC said, approximately twice the number reported in 2018.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/pandemic-spurring-mental-health-crisis-in-us-experts-say_3469596.html?ref=brief_News&utm_source=morningbriefnoe&utm_medium=email">https://www.theepochtimes.com/pandemic- ... dium=email">https://www.theepochtimes.com/pandemic-spurring-mental-health-crisis-in-us-experts-say_3469596.html?ref=brief_News&utm_source=morningbriefnoe&utm_medium=email

Anonymous · September 04, 2020, 02:52:32 PM

Famine fears growing

How has COVID-19 impacted global food supplies?

The media are beginning to report on the possibility of a global famine because of COVID-19.

To help us understand this issue, let's break it down into three parts:

1. What are the signs this might happen in Canada?

2. What are the worstcase scenarios?

3. How would it end and what could we have done differently?

The warning signs are not new.

Because of the financial hardship imposed on them by the COVID-19 recession, many farmers have been compelled to either not plant crops or throw them away.

In Canada, agricultural organizations have been railing against the federal government for a lack of financial support.

Our governments have been pushing nationalist economic policies such as "Buy Canadian" and "we can make anything in Ontario".

This implies we don't want to have to trade for these goods anymore.

Meanwhile, the conditions for panic among the population are increasing.

Grocery prices for consumers are up significantly.

Another sign is that food costs for restaurants, for those who have survived so far during the pandemic, are also rapidly increasing.

For some restaurants in the GTA, these costs have nearly doubled.

Trust in government is low, making a coordinated societal response to a crisis like a food shortage harder to implement.

Finally, many people are psychologically drained and frustrated from having to deal with so many different problems at once during the pandemic, from the loss of employment, to social isolation, to keeping their family safe, to the rising cost of food, and more.

When concern about the food supply becomes a political issue, even if the perception doesn't match the reality, governments typically respond by saying they have everything under control.

What else can they say, really?

Even if there isn't an actual food shortage, the perception that there is one can prompt similar behaviours, some far more extreme than hoarding.

Some people will say, "I don't believe you" when the government says it has everything under control and will decide instead to take matters into their own hands, often exhibiting erratic behaviour.

So what would happen in a climate of fear about a famine, real or perceived? For some context here, in my field of emergency planning, the fundamental principle is to "hope for the best, plan for the worst".

In this scenario, some people will start growing their own food.

But the problem for families and individuals in urban or suburban communities is that there is not enough land and technology available for families to become self-sustaining.

In a genuine food crisis, many people will become desperate and do anything to help themselves and their families survive.

If people are worried about how much food they will have to get through the next few days, the consequences of their actions over the next few years become irrelevant to them.

There will be calls for draconian measures to control the food supply and ration it to the public until the supply chain recovers.

But measures like that could have secondary consequences that would disrupt the supply chain even more.

Plus, in the current volatile political climate, imposing food rationing on Canadians would be a less than ideal initiative.

The reality is that even if we have a famine, or a perceived one, the country and the agricultural industry as a whole will eventually recover.

It might not be the same farmers or the same types of farms that survive, but demand for food will always be there and will increase over time, making farms more profitable.

People in my industry recommend that governments and companies need to consider serious resiliency and contingency planning before there's a crisis.

But the vast majority of them do not take it seriously, and we have seen the results.

Almost six months since the start of the pandemic, school boards are still scrambling on issues such as whether they will have enough school buses to safely open this fall.

We're still debating the obvious importance of mask wearing during a pandemic.

And we all know about the horrific tragedies in many long-term-care homes.

Let's hope we learn how to plan ahead before we run out of food.

Vezina is the CEO of Prepared Canada Corp. and has a graduate degree in disaster and emergency management

Anonymous · September 15, 2020, 08:22:42 PM

No, we don't need a return to lockdowns

On Monday, more than a few Ontarians reacted with alarm to the news that their province was reporting over 300 new COVID-19 cases that day.

Throughout most of the summer, the cases hovered in the 100s or 200s. For a week, they were even under 100. That's why, psychologically speaking, crossing the 300 threshold might frighten some.

It clearly troubled Premier Doug Ford, who mused at a press conference that he would not shy away from a return to some form of lockdown.

A similar conversation is playing out across the country, as the national case count has begun to rise again. British Columbia has gone so far as to roll back the re-opening of nightclubs and banquet halls.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau likewise threatened Canadians with a second halting of their liberties.

"We are not out of the woods," Trudeau said. "The last thing anyone wants is to go into this fall in a lockdown similar to this spring. The way we can prevent that is by remaining vigilant."

We agree that vigilance is key, but the notion of a second wave of lockdowns is unacceptable, on a number of fronts.

For starters, the public will not accept it. Protests are already flaring up across the world against over-reaching restrictions imposed on the public by their governments.

Also, the situation in Canada just doesn't warrant it.

While cases are rising again, they are nowhere near what they were during the peak in April and May.

Also, that peak was never as high as government modelling projected.

We were told the original motivation for the lockdowns was to take a few weeks to grab our bearings and make sure we don't overwhelm the health-care system and better learn how to grapple with COVID-19.

That was a wise plan of action, which we supported at the time. Things are very different now though.

Government needs to do a better job finding out exactly what type of gatherings are causing the virus to spread and then communicating that effectively to the public. Right now, they are doing a poor job of that.

Let's keep wearing our masks, washing our hands and practising social distancing. But let's put the brakes on this talk of lockdowns.

Anonymous · September 20, 2020, 01:37:41 PM

Ontario is limiting indoor gathering to ten people, down from fifty as we had two days in a row with four hundred new infections. This makes me nervous.

cc · September 20, 2020, 01:50:50 PM

Ya, we in BC are up to about the same rate of new infections per capita at the moment. Trend is rising

No surprise as opening up more and more takes place

Anonymous · September 20, 2020, 01:55:04 PM

The situation in Canada for restaurants is dire and many may never return. More will continue to close for good. I urge everyone that can afford it to support these cornerstones of local culture and and commerce and go out for a meal once a week.

By former federal PC cabinet minister, Perrin Beatty who is now president and CEO of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce

Winter is coming and without help from Ottawa it will be particularly bleak for restaurants across Canada.

Simply put, the situation is dire, with a majority of restaurants risking having to close permanently this fall.

Right now, there is a trifecta of bad news: patios are closing, there is no prospect of office or holiday parties coming in, and government programs are not designed for the unique, long-term situation facing restaurants.

According to an analysis by the Canadian Chamber of Commerce of data collected by Statistics Canada, 60% of restaurants could be forced to close by November. Moreover, Restaurants Canada data show that in March 10% of all Canadian restaurants were already permanently shuttered, with thousands more reported to be out of business since then. Those findings suggest a further 50% expect to operate at unsustainable losses for at least a year.

The food service industry in Canada typically employs 1.2 million Canadians, generates approximately $93 billion in gross revenue and pays about $30 billion in wages and benefits to Canadians. According to Labour Force Survey data from Statistics Canada, the industry remains 260,000 employees below normal for full service restaurants alone, which is far worse than other sectors of the Canadian economy.

cc · September 20, 2020, 02:08:19 PM

There seems no answer for restaurants and / or bars this winter.

What is a total surprise to me as our infection numbers rise is that hospitalization and ICU rate is increasing much faster than the infection rate

That defies my logic as most bar & restaurant patrons now are the young .. older people tending to avoid groups of people

Anonymous · September 20, 2020, 02:13:41 PM

~~Quote from: cc post_id=382917 time=1600625299 user_id=88~~
There seems no answer for restaurants and / or bars this winter.

What is a total surprise to me as our infection numbers rise is that hospitalization and ICU rate is increasing much faster than the infection rate

That defies my logic as most bar & restaurant patrons now are the young .. older people tending to avoid groups of people

It seems your province is an outlier. We are leading Canada in the number of daily new infections, but I heard on talk radio our hospitalization rate is down.

News:

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The long term cost of lock downs

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