Money Sense

[DKG]

Markets and oil prices are extending their slide this week. The Bank of England raised it's prime rate a half point instead of a quarter. Global central banks and not putting the brakes on interest rate hikes and markets are reacting to that.

[DKG]

Unless the Federal Reserve starts cutting interest rates, a recession could arrive sometime between the end of this year and the first quarter of 2024. This insane high interest rate policy is setting markets up for a rough twelve to eighteen months and a hard recessionary landing.

[DKG]

Canada's consumer price index(CPI) came in at 3.4 percent. This is a full point lower than the previous number. But, there is one area where inflation is soaring--mortgage interest payments. It's time for the BoC to start lowering interest rates.

[Herman]

Canada recorded a surprise trade deficit in May, a sign economic growth may be slowing,

[Melson Gibson]

Canada recorded a surprise trade deficit in May, a sign economic growth may be slowing,

Things are slowing.  My truck has been parked more than it has been running this year.  It's a good indicator of what's going on.  My work is not just new houses, but roads, industrial expansions, etc.  Everything built or expanded needs a dump truck for the initial or final construction process.  Even people doing yard reno's needing topsoil, road base to fix their gravel driveways, etc.



Pretty much everything has dried up to the point where it makes sense for me to let the insurance lapse, leave the thing parked, and go work for someone else doing whatever.

[Herman]

Canada recorded a surprise trade deficit in May, a sign economic growth may be slowing,

Things are slowing.  My truck has been parked more than it has been running this year.  It's a good indicator of what's going on.  My work is not just new houses, but roads, industrial expansions, etc.  Everything built or expanded needs a dump truck for the initial or final construction process.  Even people doing yard reno's needing topsoil, road base to fix their gravel driveways, etc.



Pretty much everything has dried up to the point where it makes sense for me to let the insurance lapse, leave the thing parked, and go work for someone else doing whatever.

Ya? I thought construction was still doing pretty good. I am just basing that on what I see down in Swift Current or in Regina. But, I guess things aint as good as I thought.

[Melson Gibson]

Ya? I thought construction was still doing pretty good. I am just basing that on what I see down in Swift Current or in Regina. But, I guess things aint as good as I thought.

The trades guys seem to keep busy enough, but actual land prep work like what I'd do, the phone barely rings.



Then you have guys that want topsoil/gravel for their yard, I quote them a price (I keep my prices fair and competitive), and I don't hear back.  I don't think it's so much them finding anyone else cheaper, but moreso they don't realize the cost.



I can't access good topsoil for less than $50 yard (customers want good topsoil), so they want a full load because I bill the trucking separately and the rate is the same whether loaded, half loaded, or empty, which is common industry practice.



So $750 for 15 yards (basically a full load), plus $250 for two hours of trucking (I won't bill out less than two hours, but that is a very competitive rate for this region.  Many guys won't go below $135/hour).



I honestly don't think they have the $1,000 to spend for the project they envisioned.

[Herman]

Ya? I thought construction was still doing pretty good. I am just basing that on what I see down in Swift Current or in Regina. But, I guess things aint as good as I thought.

The trades guys seem to keep busy enough, but actual land prep work like what I'd do, the phone barely rings.



Then you have guys that want topsoil/gravel for their yard, I quote them a price (I keep my prices fair and competitive), and I don't hear back.  I don't think it's so much them finding anyone else cheaper, but moreso they don't realize the cost.



I can't access good topsoil for less than $50 yard (customers want good topsoil), so they want a full load because I bill the trucking separately and the rate is the same whether loaded, half loaded, or empty, which is common industry practice.



So $750 for 15 yards (basically a full load), plus $250 for two hours of trucking (I won't bill out less than two hours, but that is a very competitive rate for this region.  Many guys won't go below $135/hour).



I honestly don't think they have the $1,000 to spend for the project they envisioned.

Hell, that aint a good sign.

[Melson Gibson]

Hell, that aint a good sign.

Then I have people complaining that their gravel driveways are absolute shit, and need some cheap road base to fix it up.  I have access to cheaper road base that is fine for driveways, 13 metric tons of that delivered for $500, that's both material and trucking costs all in as long as you're in the local region, but I'm under the impression that even that's a lot for some people...  It's "Well, I think maybe I'll get that next month."  And then next month comes and I hear nothing.



We may see a lot of wealth around us, but it appears there's a lot of people too who $500 is a lot for them, and they obviously have more important priorities than fixing up their washed out gravel driveways.

[DKG]

Shares of Ben & Jerry's Anglo-Dutch multinational parent company Unilever slid 0.8% Thursday after dropping 0.5% the previous day, reported the New York Post.



The stock price closed at $51.31, roughly a dollar below its Monday closing price.



This delta was reflected in a market cap drop of nearly $2 billion, from $130.2 billion to $128.5 billion.



Ben & Jerry's is poised to lose more than just money and customers, unless it is willing to admit that its rhetoric is hollow and its recommendations hypocritical.

[DKG]

Hiring slowed but remained sturdy in June as U.S. employers added 209,000 jobs despite inflation, high interest rates and nagging recession fears.  



Still, that's the weakest showing since employers shed jobs in December 2020. Economists had estimated that 225,000 jobs were added last month.



Payroll gains for April and May were revised down by a total of 110,000, depicting somewhat weaker hiring in the spring than believed. The May rise in jobs was downgraded to 306,000 from 339,000



The report will likely be well received by a Federal Reserve seeking to cool job and wage growth to tamp down inflation. Still, last month's employment gains were solid and pay increases picked up, developments that could prompt the Fed to resume its aggressive interest rate hiking campaign in a few weeks after pausing in June.

[Frood]

I don't believe any figures they release.



It's a Punch and Judy show.

[DKG]

I don't believe any figures they release.



It's a Punch and Judy show.

They are often revised months later, so I can understand a bit of cycnicism.

[Frood]

I don't believe any figures they release.



It's a Punch and Judy show.

They are often revised months later, so I can understand a bit of cycnicism.

Try a year or more for a recession that already happened...

[DKG]

They are often revised months later, so I can understand a bit of cycnicism.

Try a year or more for a recession that already happened...

There has already been one technical recession under Biden's watch. Pent up consumer demand after lockdowns hid it though.