Money Sense

[JOE]

Dr. Nouriel Roubini who predicted the 2008 crisis believes a recession us around the corner and believes stocks could drop 15 to 25%:



https://fortune-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/fortune.com/2022/12/07/how-bad-recession-economist-dr-doom-nouriel-roubini-stock-market-forecast/amp/?amp_js_v=a6&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQIKAGwASCAAgM%3D#aoh=16705985112241&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Ffortune.com%2F2022%2F12%2F07%2Fhow-bad-recession-economist-dr-doom-nouriel-roubini-stock-market-forecast%2F">https://fortune-com.cdn.ampproject.org/ ... orecast%2F">https://fortune-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/fortune.com/2022/12/07/how-bad-recession-economist-dr-doom-nouriel-roubini-stock-market-forecast/amp/?amp_js_v=a6&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQIKAGwASCAAgM%3D#aoh=16705985112241&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Ffortune.com%2F2022%2F12%2F07%2Fhow-bad-recession-economist-dr-doom-nouriel-roubini-stock-market-forecast%2F

[JOE]

Roubini's complete oped here on why he thinks a crash is inevitable:



https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/stagflationary-economic-financial-and-debt-crisis-by-nouriel-roubini-2022-12">https://www.project-syndicate.org/comme ... ni-2022-12">https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/stagflationary-economic-financial-and-debt-crisis-by-nouriel-roubini-2022-12

[Herman]

What happens after a crash Joe?

[DKG]

US inflation fell again last month to its lowest level since the end of 2021 in another sign this year's price surge in the world's biggest economy has passed its peak, official figures out today reveal.



Consumer prices climbed 7.1 per cent over the last year to November across the pond, down from a rate of 7.7 per cent in October, according to the US Labor Department.



Last month's drop was faster than Wall Street expected. The S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones indexes shot higher on the news.

[DKG]

The Federal Reserve's signal that its main policy rate will likely peak above 5% and stay there for a while was getting the blame for Thursday's painful stock-market rout.



The S&P 500 index fell 2.5%, posting its worst daily drop in two months, with losses in its rate-sensitive communication services and information technology sectors leading the way lower. Those sectors skid 3.8%.



Technology shares have been hit particularly hard by the Fed's dramatic pace of rate increases this year, a tough medicine that many stock-market investors hoped wouldn't be needed too much longer with some recent easing on the inflation front.



Hence, the selloff. The Fed will not lose this battle on inflation.

[Rancidmilko]

I'm under the impression that they're delaying the crash and possible reset as much as possible, to allow all the debt and financial burden to get as big as it can get.

[JOE]

The Federal Reserve's signal that its main policy rate will likely peak above 5% and stay there for a while was getting the blame for Thursday's painful stock-market rout.



The S&P 500 index fell 2.5%, posting its worst daily drop in two months, with losses in its rate-sensitive communication services and information technology sectors leading the way lower. Those sectors skid 3.8%.



Technology shares have been hit particularly hard by the Fed's dramatic pace of rate increases this year, a tough medicine that many stock-market investors hoped wouldn't be needed too much longer with some recent easing on the inflation front.



Hence, the selloff. The Fed will not lose this battle on inflation.

I don't wanna to rain on your parade, DKG but I heard yesterday from someone high up in the business world that 2023 will be a difficult year. Guy has his post grad degree in economics from Oxford & has worked for the leading brokerage houses in the world.



Governments will likely tighten their belts & there will probably be an economic slowdown. Layoffs have already begun this year but more will come in the new year as businesses prefer to stall the bad news for many until after Christmas.



Anyways here's a summary by Fortune Magazine which is in line with what the business executive told me:



 https://fortune-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/fortune.com/2022/12/16/wall-street-thinks-fed-let-us-economy-fall-recession-to-stop-inflation/amp/?amp_js_v=a6&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQIKAGwASCAAgM%3D#aoh=16712566711195&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Ffortune.com%2F2022%2F12%2F16%2Fwall-street-thinks-fed-let-us-economy-fall-recession-to-stop-inflation%2F">https://fortune-com.cdn.ampproject.org/ ... flation%2F">https://fortune-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/fortune.com/2022/12/16/wall-street-thinks-fed-let-us-economy-fall-recession-to-stop-inflation/amp/?amp_js_v=a6&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQIKAGwASCAAgM%3D#aoh=16712566711195&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Ffortune.com%2F2022%2F12%2F16%2Fwall-street-thinks-fed-let-us-economy-fall-recession-to-stop-inflation%2F



At best the stock market will continue to go sideways if it doesnt dip.



Given these factors there probably wont be an election in Canada this year or 2024 as the Liberal government will try to ride out what even they have publicly forecast as a difficult year in 2023.

[JOE]

Given what you've related about technology stocks might be a good time to buy a new pc, phone/tablets or software as many companies might slash prices/offer deals to stay afloat.

[TheProwler]

I heard yesterday from someone high up in the business world

Senile Joe thinks the bank teller who cashes his disability cheque is "high up in the business world".

[Herman]

I heard yesterday from someone high up in the business world

Senile Joe thinks the bank teller who cashes his disability cheque is "high up in the business world".

He doesn't read this thread. The Seoul bother has said 2023 will be a hard year as the effects of high interest rates are felt. We knew that anyway.



Joe is a forum killer. Every forum he posts on becomes dead.

[JOE]

Senile Joe thinks the bank teller who cashes his disability cheque is "high up in the business world".

The Seoul bother has said 2023 will be a hard year as the effects of high interest rates are felt. We knew that anyway.

...probably longer than that, Herm.



This guy says at least 18 months, eh?

[DKG]

I heard yesterday from someone high up in the business world

Senile Joe thinks the bank teller who cashes his disability cheque is "high up in the business world".

You mean his old age security cheque.

[DKG]

Senile Joe thinks the bank teller who cashes his disability cheque is "high up in the business world".

He doesn't read this thread. The Seoul bother has said 2023 will be a hard year as the effects of high interest rates are felt. We knew that anyway.



Joe is a forum killer. Every forum he posts on becomes dead.

2023 will not be a good year.

[JOE]

What happens after a crash Joe?

Hey Herm, I don't pretend to be an expert at this.



But I try to find credible sources which might provide some truthful answers.



Ie - an article from a conservative pro-business Forbes Magazine:



https://www.forbes.com/sites/kristinmckenna/2020/04/03/what-happens-to-the-stock-market-after-a-recession/?sh=22eb9aa92afb">https://www.forbes.com/sites/kristinmck ... eb9aa92afb">https://www.forbes.com/sites/kristinmckenna/2020/04/03/what-happens-to-the-stock-market-after-a-recession/?sh=22eb9aa92afb



What Happens To The Stock Market After A Recession?

Kristin McKennaSenior Contributor

Managing Director at Darrow Wealth Management in Boston, MA

Let's face it, this is uncharted territory—in modern history we've never had to contend with anything like the COVID-19 outbreak and the global economic shutdown that has followed. Regardless, here we are: trying to hold the economy in suspended animation until we get the all clear to go back to old-normal life. It's still too early to officially declare a recession though it seems like more of a formality at this point. So what can we expect from the stock market after this crisis is over and we can go outside again? What might the recovery look like?



Although the current situation is unprecedented, bear markets and recessions are not. Yes, this one is different, but to be fair the ones before it were too. And they all have one thing in common: they eventually end.

Ready to quarantine the losses



According to Dimensional, in the one, three, and five years following a correction up to a bear market (20% decline from recent highs), the stock market has averaged an annualized return of nearly 10% across all time periods.

Here's a chart showing how long bear markets have lasted over the past 100 years:



https://specials-images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/5e8680318f890100061930ae/960x0.jpg?fit=scale">



according them , there have been 8 bear markets over the past 100 years.



They range in length anywhere from 3 months to 34 months.



So, add them up:



34 + 6 + 6 + 19 + 21 + 3 + 25 + 16/8 = 16.25 months



So the average bear market in the past has lasted around 16 months.



so...provided the information we are receiving from official sources is correct and the bear market has started or a couple months back, maybe the bear market might end as soon as 2023, but possibly extend into early 2024?



I suspect if they have a bear market now, they'll prime pump the US economy in time for the 2024 election year. Just about every US presidential administration has done this in the past, so the Democrats will do it too.



So maybe near end of 2023 or early 2024 things will pick up again provided the economy is already in a recession?

[Herman]

What are you doing Joe, besides wrecking another forum and another discussion. VF looks pretty dead. Why don't you go make it even quieter and look for attention there like you do here.